In this article…
Brighton v West Ham
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Date: 26th August
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Competition: Premier League
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Kick off: 17:30
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Watch live: Sky Sports Main Event
This weekend marks gameweek 3 of the Premier League, and Saturday afternoon takes us to the South Coast, where Brighton host West Ham. Brighton will be hoping to extend their strong form, having won both games prior to this match to an impressive scoreline of 4-1. The Seagulls currently sit at the top of the league, with only Man City and Arsenal also on six points.
West Ham have also had a strong start to the season, notably beating Chelsea 3-1 last weekend, despite being a man down. Since the hosts’ promotion to the Premier League in 2017, Brighton have not yet lost to West Ham (drawing six and winning six). However, both sides have always brought their shooting boots, with the average goals scored across these 12 games being over three. With high goals comes consistently high corners and fouls in this fixture as well.
This article will explore this fixture using the Brighton v West Ham Cheat Sheet – highlighting the stand-out stats and potential betting angles. From this, we have designed two bet builders, one at 4/1 and the other at 9/1.
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The Seagulls are flying high this season
Scoring eight goals in just two outings, Brighton look dangerous. Roberto De Zerbi’s men are all putting in a huge shift, with six different goalscorers already. Stand-out players so far include Solly March, who has scored three goals, Pervis Estupinán, who has looked solid at the back and contributed to three goals going forward, and Kaoru Mitoma, also with three goal contributions.
Brighton have recorded 43 shots over the opening two gameweeks of the Premier League, hitting a wildly impressive 20 on target. This represents an increase on their average shots on target per game from last season, rising from 5.8 to ten, albeit in a very small sample size.
Brighton team news
Brighton will very likely to set up in the same way as last week, with De Zerbi opting for his usual 4-2-3-1 formation. However, there are expected to be a couple of changes. Paraguayan international Julio Enciso, who bagged two assists last week, looks to be out of action ahead of their clash with the Hammers. He has been confirmed to have suffered a knock to his left knee during a training session in the week.
The likely candidate to replace him is Joao Pedro, Brighton’s record signing. Joao Pedro was able to get off to a fast start in this season’s campaign – scoring from the spot against Luton. He will be nailed on to take a penalty this weekend should he start the game, creating potential value in a Pedro shot on target.
Areola looks to be Moyes’ man in net
The West Ham keeper spot was up for debate before the start of the season, with Alphonse Areola and Lukasz Fabianski both valid picks between the sticks, Areola now seems to be the nailed-on first-choice glovesman. The France international won Player of the Match last week against Chelsea, saving a penalty and not conceding after the Hammers went down to ten.
An interesting stat from the Brighton v West Ham Cheat Sheet is that of keeper saves. Last season, the keepers playing for the opposition against Brighton made an average of 4.13 saves per match. West Ham’s keepers made an average of 3.03 saves per game, and in Areola’s last game against Brighton he made five saves.
With Brighton taking so many shots at goal, and their opponents’ keeper often being called on to make saves, betting on Areola to have to make saves seems like a smart route to go down, especially to add value to a bet builder.
West Ham team news
There is one guaranteed change to West Ham’s starting lineup this weekend: Nayef Aguerd. The defender picked up a red card last weekend, so is naturally unavailable for selection. However, what’s not so clear is who his replacement will be.
Konstantinos Mavropanos could be available for selection, or David Moyes could choose to call upon the experienced Angelo Ogbonna. Both Mavropanos and Ogbonna commit more fouls than Aguerd did last season (on average) and could be interesting angles for a bet builder selection.
Brighton v West Ham Cheat Sheet
For those of you unfamiliar with the Cheat Sheets, what have you been doing? They are exactly what they say on the tin – a sheet packed to the brim of key stats and player matchups ahead of a chosen game. Ranging from player shots on target to average referee stats, there is something for every punter in the Cheat Sheet. Think of this article as a deep dive into the stats behind the game on Saturday afternoon, and the Cheat Sheet as the invaluable tool enabling this to happen.
If you find any of the selections mentioned in this article intriguing and you’re interested in getting £50 in free bets, then there’s some great news for you in Paddy Power’s exclusive sign-up offer.
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Okay, that’s enough teasing now. Let’s get into the selections.
ABC’s 4/1 Brighton v West Ham bet builder
⚽ Solly March to score or assist
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Odds: 2.10
Previously playing a more defensive role as a right wing back, March has now made a name for himself going forward, and De Zerbi seems to like playing him as a right winger. There is good reason for this. Last season March averaged a respectable 1.03 shots on target and 2.45 shots – the third-highest in the Brighton squad. However, whilst playing in his more advanced role, this average rose to 1.32 shots on target and 2.5 shots.
With this came lots more goals too. The local lad has now scored an impressive eight goals in 28 appearances under De Zerbi, Brighton’s highest. Compare this to only four goals in 148 matches before De Zerbi (whilst playing further back), it is clear March has benefitted from the Italian’s arrival and a new position on the pitch.
Furthermore, he is certainly playing with confidence at the moment – having bagged three goals, accumulated six shots on target, all from just two appearances this season. For those with an interest in FPL, you’ll already know that March is currently the player with the most points.
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🏆 Brighton to win
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Odds: 1.50
Against The Hammers, Brighton recorded an equally high number of shots on target when this exact fixture was played in March last season. The hosts had 20 shots, with nine on target, converting four of those to win the match 4-0.
Again, Brighton have also never lost to West Ham in the Premier League over six seasons.
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🚀 Saïd Benrahma to have 2+ shots
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Odds: 1.40
When you think of players who have the highest average shots per game in the Premier League, the likes of Mohamed Salah (2.93) and Ollie Watkins (2.05) may spring to mind. However, there is someone from West Ham who recorded a higher average shots per 90 minutes than those two last season. His name: Saïd Benrahma.
Benrahma massively outranks all of his West Ham teammates in shots, averaging three shots per game on the Brighton v West Ham Cheat Sheet. His attempts at goal only just fall short of Erling Haaland’s, who recorded 3.39 last season. The Algerian international also hit an average of one of these three on target last season, chipping in with nine goal contributions in the process.
Last weekend, despite West Ham only seeing only 24% of the possession, and Benrahma getting the hook after 69 minutes (due to the Hammers getting a red card and making a defensive substitution), Benrahma still managed three shots.
Saïd Benrahma to have 2+ shots
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🛑 Pervis Estupinán to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.25
Despite Brighton quite comfortably winning their opening two matches, Pervis Estupinán has managed to commit two fouls and get a yellow card in each of these outings. This is a much higher foul rate than last season from the Ecuadorian, where he would commit 1.41 fouls per match and only produced four yellow cards.
When Brighton hosted West Ham last season, and won 4-0, Estupinán committed a foul on Jarrod Bowen. Bowen looks likely to start on the right flank again in this game, drawing an average of 1.92 fouls per game. With a new appetite for fouling, Estupinán is bound to get stuck in on Saturday afternoon.
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ABC’s 9/1 Brighton v West Ham bet builder
🛑 Tomas Soucek to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.14
Soucek is a shorter-priced selection to get our longshot off to a good start. The sometimes reckless Czech has retained the faith of David Moyes over a long period of time, in part down to his aerial ability.
Soucek is taking on further defensive responsibilities this season without Declan Rice to help him out as a natural ball winner. While the 28-year-old’s direct opponent in this game is likely to be Joao Pedro, who has been fouled seven times in the opening two games of the season.
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🏆 Brighton to win
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Odds: 1.50
It is too small of a sample size to say that West Ham have not been negatively impacted by the departure of Declan Rice. Their drop-off in quality in midfield areas could be clearer to see with the pace that the Seagulls move the ball with, and their record of six wins and six draws against the Hammers since promotion stands them in good stead for this encounter.
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🚀 Saïd Benrahma to have 3+ shots
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Odds: 2.40
Benrahma can be a very dangerous player in transition, which makes him even more important against Brighton with the visitors happy to sit back and concede possession. This selection would have landed last week against Chelsea even with the Algerian being substituted in the 69th minute.
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🛑 Pervis Estupinán to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 2.10
Brighton are happy to make tactical fouls to prevent the opposition hurting them on the counter-attack. Jarrod Bowen will be a huge asset for the Hammers in those moments, but Estupinan has the pace and physicality to engage with the former Hull City man.
Bowen is clever on the ball and can buy free kicks to relieve pressure with Estupinan his direct opponent in this fixture.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing
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