We’ve taken an uncomplicated approach to this match and have found an eye-catching 2/1 single, that can alternatively be built via the bet builder function, given Burnley’s groundbreaking defensive numbers of late.
ABC Best Bet
Burnley have Won to Nil 5 times across their last 9 Championship matches:
✅ 4-0 Win v Sheffield Wednesday
✅ 2-0 Win v Hull
✅ 1-0 Win v Oxford
✅ 5-0 Win v Plymouth
✅ 1-0 Win v Blackburn
The numbers behind their defensive mastery stand out across English football this season.
Expert Opinion
From a team news perspective, Burnley are shaping up stronger than the Bluebirds for this encounter.
The Clarets made 9 changes for their FA Cup defeat at Preston North End, while Cardiff made 7 for their cup exit at Aston Villa at the weekend.
Key defender Dimitrios Goutas remains suspended for Cardiff, while first choice
goalkeeper Jak Alnwick is out injured.
Burnley won the reverse fixture 5-0 and rank 7th on expected points in the Championship compared to Cardiff in 21st – demonstrating that the quality gap between these 2 is borne out in the underlying performance data alongside the 17 places and 32-point gap in the actual table.
Burnley are part of an elite quartet in the Championship this season, with the gap between Sunderland in 4th and Coventry in 5th an enormous 12 points, separating the top 4 from the rest of the division. Cardiff have already hosted the 3 other members of the top 4 (Sunderland, Sheffield United and Leeds), losing each of the 3 games 2-0.
We’re not giving the 3-0 defeat at Preston, in the FA Cup, at the weekend any weight. 9 changes were made, including replacing the goalkeeper and 2 of the regular back 4, while promotion back to the Premier League is what the success of this season hinges on for the Clarets.
Burnley have conceded a scarcely believable 0.26 goals per game in the second tier this term. For context, that’s a stronger goals conceded rate than when Chelsea conceded just 15 goals in the Premier League in 2004/05 (0.39 per game).
That includes Burnley’s last 12 in a row – they haven’t conceded a Championship goal in their last 19 hours of action if you include additional time. 2 behind the all-time record for consecutive league clean sheets, held by Manchester United who recorded 14 in a row in 2008/09.
It is no surprise to see that an exceptionally rare run of this kind has come with a huge overperformance of their expected goals (xG) against (conceding 9 this season from 27 xG against as per Fotmob), but their numbers in that regard have improved of late.
Teams are finding it even harder to create chances against Burnley despite knowing how excellent they are at shutting their opposition down.
Across the season, Burnley have allowed 0.79 xG against per game, but in 5 of their last 7 league outings they’ve allowed 0.38xG against or less. Conceding 0.57 xG against per game in that 7-game sample compared to 0.79 over the season, they’re getting stronger and more watertight still.
Alternatively, you could back Under 0.5 Cardiff goals at 2.20 in this one, it’s very rare to get the opportunity to back something that’s landed in 12 of the last 12 matches for a team, in this case for Burnley, at an odds-against price.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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