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EFL Championship 25/26 Golden Boot Predictions – Who Will Be Top Scorer?

EFL Championship 25/26 Golden Boot Predictions – Who Will Be Top Scorer?

Monday 28 July, 20254 min read
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The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

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In this article...

Here are my top picks for this year's top goalscorer in the Championship.

My Championship 25/26 Outright Predictions are also live, there are League One 25/26 Outright Tips and League Two 25/26 Outright Predictions on ABC, too.

Each one includes an exclusive outright treble that you can follow across the season.

25/26 Championship Top Goalscorer Predictions

Haji Wright to Win the Golden Boot (Coventry City)

EFL Championship

Haji Wright to be Top Goalscorer at 16/1 (Each-Way)

Wright has appeared in the list for the top five players in the Championship for xG per 90 in the last two seasons. His conversion rate has been perfectly fine, netting 16 goals in 2023/24 and then 12 in 2024/25, the only thing keeping Wright away from the top scorer paying positions is time on the pitch.

He played just short of 3000 minutes in the league in 2023/24, but only 1900 minutes last season. With his rate of 0.5+ xG per 90, and his current rate of conversion, as well as the fact that he appears to be Coventry’s primary penalty taker, one would expect that a season in which he finally plays over 3000 minutes would be all it takes for Wright to challenge at the very top of the Championship goalscorer charts.

Of course, he is currently recovering from injury, but Frank Lampard has said that he expects a big season from Wright, and the fact that Coventry haven’t brought in new options, at least at this stage, suggests that Lampard is happy enough with his options. At the same time, Wright is unlikely to fall foul of the concern of a mid-season transfer like our main selection of last season, Emmanuel Latte Lath.

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Mathias Kvistgaarden to Win the Golden Boot (Norwich City)

EFL Championship

Mathias Kvistgaarden to be Top Goalscorer at 40/1 (Each-Way)

I am pretty convinced that Josh Sargent will leave Norwich by the end of the window, and therefore his direct replacement, Kvistgaarden, looks a tasty price in this market.

Don't be fooled by the £6m price that Norwich paid for him; their recruitment team played a blinder by finding a lesser-known release clause in his Brøndby contract. Kvistgaarden is valued at £10m+ and his goal record in the Danish league last season suggests a man entering the peak of his powers.

His goals per 90 increased from around 0.5, already a decent record, to 0.76 last season, with 17 goals in just over 2000 minutes. If he plays the expected 2500-3000 minutes this season, then he should at least threaten the places.

Kvistgaarden doesn't play the same as Sargent, in fact, his game style reminds me much more of another Norwich Championship top scorer, Teemu Pukki. It will be up to the team to help Kvistgaarden with chances created, but he has shown in Denmark that he is capable of getting in the right positions and finishing them off.

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Tommy Conway to Win the Golden Boot (Middlesbrough)

EFL Championship

Tommy Conway to be Top Goalscorer at 40/1 (Each-Way)

Conway seems to be heading into the season as Middlesbrough's main #9. Last season, he was competing for minutes with Emmanuel Latte Lath, but then, once he led the line by himself, he showed himself capable of scoring goals. 

He finished just outside the paying places last season with 13 goals, a decent return for 2300 minutes, if this is extended to over 3000 then it should put him in contention. It is worth noting that Conway has increased his goal return every season to this point, and it is also interesting that Rob Edwards guided Carlton Morris to a place and over 20 goals in Luton’s promotion season in 22/23.

Conway is also Middlesbrough's penalty taker, which is key for potential Golden Boot winners.

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Colby Bishop to Win the Golden Boot (Portsmouth)

EFL Championship

Colby Bishop to be Top Goalscorer at 80/1 (Each-Way)

For such a big price, Bishop has a lot of the trends going for him.

He is Pompey's penalty taker, his performances last year mean that he will start the season as their undoubted starting #9, and he has been at the club for over two years now, so he is well settled.

It was an 11 goal return for Bishop in the Championship last year, which was pretty remarkable in itself given his recovery from a potentially serious heart condition which meant that he ended up missing the first section of the season. It was a surprise to most that he was back so soon. He managed the goals in 2600 minutes, at a rate of 0.38 per 90.

He would need improvement to see him in the top four, but he is capable of that given that this will be his first full season at the level, and that Pompey are improving the team around him.

Given the fact that he is likely to play over 3000 minutes barring injury (he managed an average of 3700 in the four seasons prior), he looks likely to score 15 or more. It is worth a try at the price.

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When looking to select a top goalscorer for a season, there are a number of things to consider.

Many punters will go off a mixture of gut feeling, goalscoring history, and, possibly, expected team success. This can lead to some choices that, whilst they will of course have a chance, may not be the best value selections in the market.

We prefer to use data, historic trends, and analysis to provide us with our selections.

One thing that I am happy to advise against is backing forwards from clubs that are well stacked in the forward areas. It is great for clubs to have options, but ideally, you want your top scorer to be playing as many minutes in the goalscoring positions as possible.

Some of the favourites in the market suffer from this as they are from top clubs. Adam Armstrong, Ross Stewart, Ben Brereton Diaz and Cameron Archer are all potential Golden Boot candidates, but they are all competing for the same minutes. Jay Stansfield and Kyogo could play together, but who knows who could join them in Birmingham’s money-backed summer.

The other trap to avoid, from my perspective, is those players who could be sold in January. Obviously, this is very difficult to predict, but those of is who were on Emmanuel Latte Lath last season were ruing Boro's decision to sell him to the MLS in January. Look for players who are on good, long contracts, with a lack of realistic higher-level interest - if possible.

Below, we see the top four scorers from the last few seasons in the Championship with their goals, xG, and minutes played.

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Key Facts from Research

  • Last season was a massive outlier, nobody scored more than 19 goals, the first time in five seasons that no-one had scored 20 or more in a Championship season

  • Josh Sargent finished top four despite playing only 2500 minutes, he is the only player in the 21 sampled that got into the paying positions with less than 3000 minutes

  • The 24/25 season saw the top two teams have players in the paying positions, this also happened in 21/22

  • Joel Piroe continued the trend of a main #9 for a well performing club winning the top goalscorer crown, with Sammie Szmodics being an outlier here 

  • The average position of clubs that finished with the top scorer is 5.6, albeit four of the five clubs finished in the top four

  • The average position of a placed top scorer is 8th, so it perhaps does help to play for a top half team

  • Only Joel Piroe has managed consecutive seasons in the place paying positions

  • It does help to have a high xG, but all players bar three (Adam Armstrong x2, Teemu Pukki, and Dominic Solanke) beat their xG totals

  • Josh Brownhill was the first player to hit the paying positions despite an xG of less than 10, players with a strong long distance striking record could be worth a punt (Borja Sainz could also be included here)

  • It helps to be on penalties, Piroe, Szmodics, Toney, Mitrovic, and Akpom were all penalty takers

  • New signings don't tend to feature - only Ivan Toney (Brentford 20/21) has won as a new signing, and only Kieffer Moore (Cardiff 20/21) and Joel Piroe (Swansea 21/22) have placed as new signings

  • From the 21 players in the table, 12 could be described as a centre-forward, with others either playing as a false 9, as a wide forward or a support striker

We'll be all over the EFL this season, including our usual selection of EFL Accumulator Tips for every round of fixtures. It’s not just English football we cover on Andy’s Bet Club either, with a range of Football Betting Tips & Predictions on the site every day. Bookmarking our EFL Football Tips to revisit across the season will save you some time.

If you're looking for a new bookmaker account for the 25/26 season, see our hand-picked promotions - Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *

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