There is sure to be a good atmosphere at the John Smiths Stadium for this one and where I am usually one for data analysis and performance metrics, it feels like there is a little bit more to the ‘difficult to measure’ criteria ahead of this one. Even so, looking into the data it is clear that Blackburn continue to struggle away from home, they are behind in the xG difference to the tune of -0.7xG per match. Huddersfield at home are -0.3xG over the last ten matches, which isn’t great either, but I doubt Warnock will be too concerned by that.

It could be a tight match but I am definitely favouring siding with Huddersfield to kick off the bet builder. With the prices as they are, we can also afford to have the draw on our side. This would have collected in eight out of Blackburn’s last ten away matches and seven from ten in Huddersfield’s home matches.

The referee for this one is Stephen Martin. Martin has taken charge of 16 Championship matches this season and has been pretty frivolous with the whistle and the cards. Martin averages 4.5 yellow cards and 22 fouls per match. He has given at least four yellows in each of his last seven Championship matches as well

The high tension for this game is likely to have an effect on the competitiveness of the match as well. A Warnock side are always likely to be competitive, especially in the current situation,

Both sides are well ensconced in the top half of the table for cards earned. Huddersfield’s position is actually worse at home (7th worst record) than away. Blackburn’s is the opposite, in 8th place away from home.

There are likely to be skirmishes in midfield with Lewis Travis, Jonathan Hogg and David Kasumu in there, all more known for their defensive work than on-ball proficiency. Both teams also have strikers who get their fair share of fouls in with Sam Gallagher and Danny Ward.

All of which is to say that the Over 3.5 card line looks to be of keen interest here. I was expecting to see a shorter price for this line so I am happy to be adding it to the bet builder.

Coming back to the topic of Lewis Travis, the Blackburn captain has been one of the standout players in Rovers’ drive for promotion this season, especially in the second half of the season.

However, in doing this he has committed a heck of a lot of fouls in amongst an incessant work rate and tackles attempted. No stranger to the dark arts as well, Travis is Rovers’ most fouled player as well as committing the most fouls, a lot of games really do revolve around him.

I suspect that this one is going to be no exception. Travis has committed at least two fouls in seven of his last ten matches, with five of them being three or more. With the lively Jack Rudoni likely to be buzzing around Travis, as well as Hogg and Kasumu in midfield, there will be no shortage of potential accomplices in getting Travis high up into the foul count, and potentially into the book as well.

However, we will stick with the safer bet of counting the fouls here.

The final bet is for one shot to be taken by Matty Pearson.

The Huddersfield defender has actually scored three goals in his last two matches, though another goal is obviously unlikely, the confidence that Pearson must be feeling, as well as the confidence that the team and management will have in him, means that surely he will take at least one chance at goal here.

Huddersfield are favourites in the corner market, which means that the expectation is that they will have a decent number of opportunities to get the ball into the box for their big men to attack. Rovers aren’t a bad defensive side in set-piece situations, but there are only a certain number of Blackburn players that are good in the air, Dom Hyam, Hayden Carter, and Sam Gallagher are the main ones. Huddersfield are likely to be able to find their key targets if they are smart in their planning.

Pearson having only one shot in the match feels like a big price at even money, especially given his recent form in front of goal.

With the disarray that Watford are in as a club, it’s difficult to see how they come away with a result on Monday, having picked up just one win in 7 and 0 away wins since their smash-and-grab win at Carrow Road on the 2nd of January. Meanwhile, after a delayed start to home action, Coventry have managed the 9th-best home record with the exact same home record as their visitors today. 33 points from 20 games with just 5 defeats is an impressive return.

Despite holding just 45.47% possession at home this season, Coventry’s discipline has led to this home record as they have superior totals in goals, xG, shots and shots on target than away sides visiting the Coventry Building Society Arena. Per 90, they average the most interceptions in the league and thus are able to shut down playmakers who traditionally break the lines and make the difference.

Watford’s midfield has the workhorse in Hamza Choudhury and a bright youngster in Ismael Kone but they are heavily reliant on Moroccan Imran Louza to transition the ball forward. As a team, the Hornets pose one of the higher rates of through passes per 90 with 7.03 and progressive passes which has been a rare bright spot. However, the accuracy can be wayward and Coventry will pounce on this, targeting Louza as their main focus.

This game will be won and lost in the midfield and I expect Coventry to do enough to limit the visitors going forward if being unremarkable themselves. Watford average less than a goal a game on the road and haven’t scored in their past 3 with the likes of Joao Pedro starting to vent his frustration. Without starting keeper Daniel Bachmann as well, I wouldn’t put it past Coventry taking all 3 points here.

Coventry’s underlying numbers have been superb recently with this particular line landing in 7 in a row and 8 of their last 9 games. This includes their 4-0 defeat at home to Stoke City where they still managed 12 shots and 5 on target. There has only been one home game in 2023 where Coventry haven’t had 4+, managing 3 in a victory against Sunderland.

Watford have only kept one of their previous five opponents under four shots on target which includes allowing four from QPR, the worst-form side in the league at the moment. Chris Wilder has attempted to deploy his 3-back system but the players seem unwilling to adapt or progress the ball, inviting pressure. A forward line with the talent of Coventry’s such as Gyokeres will also be licking their lips with starting keeper Daniel Bachmann suspended.

Ryan Porteous is one of the few players Watford fans appear keen to retain for the 2023/24 season and the Scot has been excellent since his arrival from Hibernian in January. He notched his first goal in a 2-2 draw with Reading and has been essential in this backline. He is also now a starter internationally for Scotland with 3 appearances and 3 clean sheets, with his most memorable performance coming in the 2-0 win over Spain in the Euro Qualifier.

For all Porteous does well defensively, he can be hot-headed and adores a tackle. It’s rare to not see him as the lowest priced for a card and he is often seen below evens for the selection that has landed in 10 games in the 22/23 season. In his past 5 away trips with the Hornets, Porteous has picked up 3 cards.

Today, his opposing number is Viktor Gyokeres who tends to pin the right centre back as his target when playing as the left striker in a 3-5-2. Lining up on the right will be Porteous who will have his hands full with Gyokeres, arguably the best striker at this level. The Swede also averages 1.96 fouls drawn which includes drawing 2+ in 5 of his last 6 Coventry games. In a game where Coventry are likely to lean on Gyokeres to unlock this Watford back line, who will be sat deep to cover backup keeper Hamer? Porteous will be tasked with pressing him tightly which should lead to a few mistimed tackles.

The Hornets average 2.15 cards on the road this season and I like them to continue in line with that average, hopefully, assisted by Porteous himself. The last time they didn’t have 2+ was back in November at Bristol City who average the 6th fewest cards against in the Championship. They have picked up 38 cards in 15 league games in 2023 often finding themselves chasing games with the crowd on their back.

Away to a playoff-chasing Coventry crowd, they should be in a boisterous atmosphere which the Watford players will rise to if they fall behind. The hosts shared 5 cards with Swansea in a competitive 0-0 on Friday but Watford are a more feisty entity full of hot-headed personalities capable of making this a cagey, aggressive affair.

Promotion-chasing Middlesbrough need to do something that no opponent has done since West Bromwich Albion on Boxing Day, beat Bristol City in a league game at Ashton Gate.

The visitors simply have to take advantage of the bigger need for the win. The Middlesbrough of the last few months has generally been able to breeze to victory with an attacking approach, Carrick was able to deploy strong options from the bench to either see out or further secure the result for this side. Even despite consecutive defeats to Huddersfield Town and Burnley, Middlesbrough still remain among the division’s form sides. Only the league leaders have a better record over the last half of the season than Middlesbrough, a reflection of their transformation from awkward relegation strugglers into serious promotion contenders under their rookie boss.

Bristol City’s season is very close to being mathematically over. The Robins sit right in the middle of the Championship table, nine points from the play-off places and 11 points from the relegation zone with six games to play.

Despite seemingly being a prime candidate for the ‘beach team’ category, the Robins are not a side that make no attempt to be competitive in matches. Most recently on Good Friday for instance, Nigel Pearson’s side won at Stoke City who were looking among the most confident and best-performing teams in the division.

Pearson has had to cope without superstar young midfielder Alex Scott for Bristol City’s last two matches, compensating in the attacking midfield with fellow youngster Tommy Conway. Andy King and Matty James form the deeper midfield pair in a 4-2-3-1 which contains a frontline of Sam Bell, Nakhi Wells and Andreas Weimann, as well as a pair of dynamic full-backs in Jay Dasilva and George Tanner. Bristol City can also call upon the services of exciting Albanian forward Anis Mehmeti, a January signing from Wycombe Wanderers who arrived from the bench to score the winner in Friday’s comeback victory in Stoke-on-Trent. Aside from a 3-0 defeat to Manchester City in the FA Cup, the Robins have scored at least once in every game at Ashton Gate since the beginning of 2023, going unbeaten in league fixtures in that time.

Mehmeti’s development at League One Wycombe Wanderers saw him become an attacking star in the third tier and smart recruitment for Bristol City during their January window. The 22-year-old Albania International can be deployed as a forward or in attacking midfield but perhaps is best when he plays inverted off the left flank. Competition in the frontline has restricted the number of starts Mehmeti has had so far at the Robins, but he can always be expected to feature at some point when available, with his impact quickly noticed.

Anis Mehmeti is currently averaging 3.8 shots per 90 in the Championship, the majority of these coming from within 18 yards from goal. Mehmeti is in turn also averaging more than one shot per 90 minutes from outside of the penalty area. Whether as a starter or substitute, the Albanian’s pace, skill, and direct running is a weapon Bristol City look to utilise in Championship fixtures.

Burnley at home have been an irresistible force for most of the season. Last time out though Sunderland found a way to stifle them, though also some post-international break rust may also have been a factor in that display. Even then, Burnley’s xG difference in that match was +0.8, enough to win most matches. This is actually a little lower than their last ten home matches average of +1.2 but that figure proves just how dominant Kompany’s side have been at home, and it is a factor that cannot be ignored when assessing this match.

Sheffield United have been good away from home though as well, as you would expect with a team sitting second in the league. The team seems to be unaffected by any financial-based controversy connected to the club, which is certainly what the coaching team and fans would be hoping for. They have been dominant in recent away matches at Reading, Sunderland, and Norwich, not an easy task.

Unless Burnley are going to go all out in chasing the Reading 2005/6 points record in the Championship I feel that this is the last hurrah that they will be totally focused on. In this situation then we must support the team that have shown themselves to be the best team in the league.

As discussed above it feels like the handbrake could be off slightly for both sides. This match brings together the two teams that have produced the most shots in the league over the course of the first 39 matches.

Burnley have been far more successful in converting those shots into goals, scoring 76 goals to Blades’ 60. Those totals make them the 1st and 3rd best in the league at scoring goals.

Obviously, the fact going against goals here is that both sides have had really strong defences as well. Indeed, going off pure goals conceded Burnley and Sheff Utd have the best two records in the league, albeit they go about the job very differently.

Burnley rely on their ball possession, quick regain of the ball, and high line to prevent the opposition from getting too close to their goal too often. United more depend on the quality and physicality of their defenders to defend the box well. As stated, both teams have been effective.

However, when the teams clashed at Bramall Lane earlier in the season 7 goals were smashed in, so obviously attacks ended up on top in that clash.

For our bet builder, I also want to support goals. We won’t need anywhere near as many as we saw earlier in the season though, Over 2.5 goals is around even money, which makes Over 1.5 goals a pretty backable price to put into a bet builder. This means that we cover scorelines such as 1-1, which feels like a distinct possibility here, but also we know that either side very much has the capability to cover the line all on their own.

The route to goal will be interesting as well. Paul Heckingbottom and his coaching staff will no doubt have planned another aerial bombardment, the likes of which served them so well in the reverse fixture.

That day Sheffield United got 10 corners on their own, with Burnley winning an additional six. Whilst this is obviously an anomaly, both United and Burnley have high corner-per-game ratios, though Burnley generally concede very few.

Given the specific nature of this match, I like the total corner angle. This proved to be the way forward the last time these two met and I believe that this will be a strategy employed again here.

The final aspect of the match that I want to add into our bet builder is from the fouls market. Michael Salisbury is the man in the middle here and he is not a referee that I want to necessarily back cards with.

Whilst the match strikes me as competitive given the head-to-head nature of their battle all season long, there is also the possibility of the lack of real jeopardy also calming the intensity of the match to an extent.

For those reasons I didn’t like the bookings market necessarily but there are a couple of good prices in the fouls market to take advantage of.

My trusty fouler for Burnley is definitely Josh Cullen. The Irishman has now committed at least one foul in his last nine matches. He is still a backable price and with the likes of Sander Berge’s ball-carrying, or James McAtee drifting into central areas and the temptation to press Oli Norwood, there are a lot of opportunities for Cullen to get involved in tackles, and, likely, fouls.

From a Sheffield United perspective, there is a stand-out candidate to add to the bet if he starts. Max Lowe tops the Blades charts for tackles, fouls, and yellow cards over the last ten matches. If you need additional evidence, then In the Middlesbrough v Burnley game it was Tommy Smith, the Boro right back that accumulated three fouls in the first half hour against the likes of Anass Zaroury on Burnley’s left side.