Chelsea have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 Premier League games, Enzo Maresca’s side usually find the back of the net - they’ve only failed to score in 3 Premier League games this season suggesting that they usually penetrate the opposition backline at least once. Chelsea’s defensive structure has completely unravelled since the early stages of the season, an injury to Wesley Fofana has made playing in the way that Enzo Maresca wants very difficult leading to the vulnerability we’ve seen from Chelsea in recent weeks. BTTS has landed in both meetings between these sides in the FA Cup and in the initial Premier League encounter at Stamford Bridge. Brighton have seen BTTS in 2 of their last 5 games across all competitions but usually find the back of the net at the Amex Stadium with 14 goals scored across their 11 home games this season (1.27 per game).

Noni Madueke has enjoyed a decent season for Chelsea so far, he isn’t quite as important as Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer but provides a goal threat with his shot on target numbers really standing out. Madueke has had 26 shots on target across his 22 Premier League appearances this season, 18 of these have been starts taking his average to 1.62 shots on target per 90. This is a number comparable with the likes of Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson showing how often Noni Madueke takes aim at goal. This average is particularly impressive as he’s operating in wide areas, a position not always offering a direct path to goal. Chelsea’s squad depth also makes this a decent selection when factoring in Super Sub, in the event that Madueke is taken off early he’s likely to be replaced by Pedro Neto who also offers a decent goal threat as he displayed with his recent equaliser against West Ham in which he had 3 shots in just 38 minutes of action.

Danny Welbeck is Brighton’s main shot-taker averaging 2.24 attempts per game. Chelsea’s defence has been far from solid, often allowing opponents numerous chances. They concede just under 5 shots on target per game, meaning Welbeck should have opportunities to test the defence. Given his attacking role and Brighton’s direct style of play, 3 shots seems well within reach.

Brighton have struggled to make the Amex Stadium a fortress this season, they’ve only managed to win 3 of their 11 home games, drawing 6 of these encounters. Draws are something that have become quite common for Brighton this season - they’ve drawn 10 games in the Premier League this campaign, more than any other side in the division. By contrast, Chelsea have been travelling pretty well this campaign. Recent hiccups on the road have scuppered this record slightly but Enzo Maresca’s side have avoided defeat in 9 of their 12 away games this season, scoring 25 goals in the process which is a record only bettered by Liverpool. Only Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool boast a better away record than Chelsea. The FA Cup meeting between these sides recently was quite a dull affair, rotation to both sides took a lot of the energy out of the game and we can expect a different contest here. A draw looks the most likely outcome when considering the respective form of these sides, but leaning slightly towards Chelsea with their decent away record in the Premier League looks a sensible angle.

Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last 6 games across all competitions, Enzo Maresca’s side have seen 41 goals across their 12 away games in the Premier League this season (3.41 per game). Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 games across all competitions which is a record that includes seeing over this line in each of their last 2 games, the latest of which was against Chelsea in the FA Cup. Over 2.5 goals also landed in the initial Premier League meeting between these sides which produced 6 goals in a 4-2 win for Chelsea.

Georginio Rutter has found some decent form recently and has made a habit of scoring against Chelsea this season. He’s recorded 4 goal contributions across his last 5 appearances in all competitions which includes a goal and an assist in Brighton’s victory over Chelsea in the FA Cup. Rutter also scored in Brighton’s 4-2 defeat at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League earlier in the season. It’s worth noting that both of his goals against Chelsea this season have come from headed efforts, something which points to a wider problem Chelsea are having in contesting with the physicality of the opposition in their own box. Rutter has recorded 6 goal contributions across his 14 Premier League starts this season, only Welbeck, Joao Pedro and Kaoru Mitoma have registered more.

Palmer had 5 shots on target in the initial league meeting between these sides at Stamford Bridge, scoring all 4 goals in Chelsea’s 4-2 victory over Brighton. He had a shot on target from 3 attempts in total in Chelsea’s recent FA Cup to Brighton at the Amex Stadium. Palmer is on penalties and free kicks for Chelsea, offering the talisman a few different avenues to find the target. He found the target from a free kick in both games against Brighton this season with 1 of these efforts finding the back of the net. Palmer is averaging 1.58 shots on target per 90 across his 24 Premier League appearances this season resulting in 14 goals for the 22-year-old. He will need to raise his average here but is likely to take on even more shots with Nicolas Jackson a doubt for this game.

Chelsea have collected 69 yellow cards across their 24 Premier League games this season, the joint-most of any side in the division. Chelsea collected 3 yellow cards to Brighton’s 2 in the initial league meeting between these sides at Stamford Bridge with Enzo Maresca’s side also committing more fouls than the Seagulls (11-8). Brighton have collected 53 yellow cards across their 24 Premier League games this season, a noticeable drop off from Chelsea’s league leading total. Both of these squads are young and can be prone to reckless challenges or silly bookings as a result of dissent. Chelsea should once again receive more cautions than their opponents here.