It feels like everyone has had their say on Chelsea’s trials and tribulations over the last couple of years since Todd Boehly’s takeover. However, there are some positives that can be seen in the performance data.

Chelsea sit firmly in the top half of the Premier League for both xG created and xG against. Indeed, most models would have Chelsea in 7th or 8th for net xG and expected points, a few places higher than their current position in 11th.

However, it is difficult to judge recent performances because Chelsea have been involved heavily in the domestic cup competitions and played fewer Premier League matches as a result. They have got a negative xG difference since the turn of the year though, with chance creation in particular being below average.

Leicester have had their own struggles in 2024, but they are still performing as one of the top three teams in the second tier. Leicester sit top of the league over the season for xG creation and second to Leeds for xG against.

Obviously Leicester’s squad has retained much of their Premier League quality and Premier League personnel, controversially so as the headlines of recent days have informed us. Leeds threatened Chelsea heavily in the previous round, and Leicester progressed against a full strength Bournemouth at the same time.

Chelsea have better players, but Leicester have been used to winning and dominating matches this season. Chelsea seem quite short in the odds to feel confident in adding them to the bet builder, but the prices are such that Leicester can be onside but still allow Chelsea to win and progress.

Chelsea’s Player of the Season is probably Cole Palmer. The former Man City man has been on top form for Chelsea for most of the season and his data is high quality.

Palmer is Chelsea’s top scorer, and he is also well up there in terms of shots per game and overall xG. Indeed, he is Chelsea’s most regular shot taker, and these numbers are increasing as his importance to the team becomes clearer. He averages 2.69 shots per 90, and his recent record is 3, 6, 0, 3, 4, 0, 3 and 5 in terms of shots taken, so six of his last eight matches have seen him hit three or more shots.

Probably the best value in the market here though is with Leicester and their Nigerian international midfielder Wilfred Ndidi. Most people will be familiar with his play in the Premier League being more defensive, but for Leicester this season, Harry Winks has been the deepest lying midfielder, allowing Ndidi to bomb forward.

There has only been one match in Ndidi’s last 13 starts in which he hasn’t had a shot.

Conor Gallagher is quite well known as a combative player, he tops Chelsea’s charts for the highest number of fouls this season. However, he also tops the charts for being the most fouled Chelsea player as well, often the battles will follow him around.

He is fouled, on average, just over 1.5 times per match, and that is more regularly than a number of players who are priced up shorter than him in this market. With the way that he wears his heart on his sleeve, this is going to be a big match for him and one would expect him to be involved in skirmishes either way.

Mykhailo Mudryk is also worth a mention in this market. If the Ukrainian starts then he is worth adding into the bet builder for at least one foul with his style of play and his record of being fouled is actually more regular than Gallagher, but off a smaller sample size.

For Leicester, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall will have to be stopped. He glides through the centre of midfield with the ball and if he goes unchecked he has the ability to hurt Premier League teams. With the likes of Moises Caicedo in the Chelsea team, one would expect Dewsbury-Hall to be brought down. He is fouled almost twice a game in the Championship.

Abdul Fatawu has established himself in the Leicester first team in recent weeks, and a key part of his game is pressing at speed.

If the youngster is asked to fulfil this role again by Enzo Maresca then he is in danger of fouling the opposition. He averages over a foul a game, but in this match, where Leicester will concede possession more often than usual, he is likely to cross the two foul barrier.

Moises Caicedo is the obvious choice for Chelsea. His battle against Dewsbury-Hall in particular will be key to how the tie unfolds. He is very busy around the midfield, and averages 2 fouls a match in the Premier League. This is very much a Premier League style match in all but the title.