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France v Croatia
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Kick Off: Sunday 23rd March at 19:45
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Competition: UEFA Nations League
Croatia surprised many with their first leg performance, scoring two half goals without reply to establish a firm lead in the tie. France weren’t awful in the game but many of the same issues that plagued France in the European Championship were present here, especially in attacking areas.
Croatia were effective in managing France’s substantial attacking threat but had to rely on their goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet with Dominik Livakovic making six saves in a Player of the Match performance. Croatia could have had a more commanding lead if it wasn’t for a missed penalty early on in the match, France are still very much in this tie and could easily force nerves in the Croatia side with an early goal here.
⭐ France v Croatia Best Bet
Croatia were able to cut through this French side quite easily which will alarm Didier Deschamps, especially considering that Croatia are not blessed with an elite level of attacking talent in their squad. However, despite this lack of household names in forward areas, Croatia showed how effective they can be when functioning as a team with plenty of competent footballers in the defensive and midfield thirds.
Croatia managed four shots on target in the first leg meeting between the sides and are averaging 5.7 shots on target per game across the Nations League as a whole – only Germany and Spain are averaging more shots on target per game than Zlatko Dalic’s side. France aren’t too far behind in this particular metric, currently averaging 5.6 shots on target per game in the Nations League this term.
The gamestate has changed completely for France, Deschamps is one of the more pragmatic managers on the international circuit but he will have to abandon that philosophy if his side want to find a route back into the tie. This should open the game up from the very beginning which should see Croatia able to manufacture chances, particularly in moments of transition and when France overcommit bodies forward.
🟢 France v Croatia #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
A fast start could be on the cards for France seeing as they need two goals to get back into this tie after falling to a 2-0 defeat in the first leg. Mbappe was bright in that game despite not getting on the scoresheet, he had four shots on target, two of which came in the first half.
Mbappe’s record for France is really impressive at international level, he’s scored 48 goals across his 87 caps for the national team and is already third in the all time goalscoring charts for France, quickly closing in on Thierry Henry and Olivier Giroud.
Didier Deschamps has hinted at finally allowing the attacking talent he has at his disposal to flourish, with Mbappe expected to lead the line, supported by Dembele, Olise and Barcola which should ensure that Mbappe gets the service required early on here to get France back into the tie.
👕 Croatia v France Predicted XI
🔍 France v Croatia Players to Watch
⚪ Josko Gvardiol
Gvardiol always offers an attacking threat, he’s one of the most well rounded players in Europe and showcased this ability in the first leg with a shot from distance early on. Gvardiol’s forays forward are nothing new, he’s averaging 1.24 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, as well as 0.86 shots per 90 in the Nations League. He’s a threat from set pieces as well as when he steps forward from left back as illustrated by the five goals he’s scored across all competitions for Manchester City this season. France will inevitably leave gaps at the back as they’re chasing the tie which should give Gvardiol licence to step forward and get a shot away, as he did in the first leg.
🔵 Kylian Mbappe
Mbappe will be frustrated that he didn’t add to his incredible international record for France in the first leg, the Galactico had four shots on target – two in each half. Mbappe’s shots on target record for Real Madrid this season is really promising, he’s had 62 shots on target across his 26 La Liga appearances this season (2.48 per 90) resulting in 20 goals for the 26-year-old. He’s had some issues with Deschamps in the past over squad selection and tactics which would have no doubt been exacerbated by France’s first leg performance.
However, Mbappe will always get opportunities as a result of his ability regardless of how he is platformed and can be crucial to France finding a way back into this tie. Mbappe had four of the six shots on target France managed in total during the game, highlighting his importance to the national side in the final third.
📂 France v Croatia Cheat Sheet
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💻 France v Croatia Form and Tactics
Zlatko Dalic has done a brilliant job in making his side competitive on the international stage despite the size of the talent pool. There is a real team spirit about Croatia and a belief that they can compete against some of the more impressive squads in Europe which has arisen as a result of their positive performances in recent international tournaments. Croatia are still heavily reliant on Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic in the middle of the park, these two allow Croatia to establish control in games and can match the quality of the majority of midfield setups in international football given their wealth of experience at Europe’s top level.
Croatia will line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape although this could very well become a 4-3-3 here due to them having a lead to protect when heading to France for this second leg.
France’s loss has ramped up the pressure once again on Didier Deschamps, with such a talented squad it remains a mystery as to why Deschamps continues to push forward with a pragmatic style of play. France easily have the firepower to outscore the majority of international sides and certainly have more firepower than Croatia. This is a longstanding issue which was also present at the European Championship in which France only managed to score four goals. Deschamps does have credit in the bank from the 2018 World Cup victory but questions still remain as to whether he is the best man to lead France into the 2026 World Cup.
Deschamps seems to prefer narrow systems, he played with a 4-3-1-2 in the first leg with Ousmane Dembele operating just behind a front two of Mbappe and Randal Kolo Muani. He could look to freshen up the attacking line here with the wealth of options he has at his disposal and could look to play more traditional wingers with the likes of Desire Doue, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola all enjoying fantastic seasons and ready to feature on the international stage regularly.
🏁 France v Croatia Ref Watch
- Referee: Michael Oliver
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 4.57 / 0.24 |
| Fouls Given | 22.51 |
| Penalties | 0.26 |
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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