Gakpo is such a threat on the international stage, he’s been crucial to the Netherlands’ success in recent years. He carried Netherlands to the semi-finals of the European Championship last summer, ending the tournament as joint-top scorer. Gakpo had three shots in the first leg, two of which found the target and one of which found the back of the net. He’s much more assured of his role in this Netherlands side with the 25-year-old rotated and shifted to different positions far more often under Arne Slot for Liverpool. Gakpo has had seven shots on target across his seven appearances in the Nations League this campaign (1.28 per 90), scoring three goals in the process. Gakpo will be someone that Spain will have to keep an eye on given how easy it was for him to get shots off in the first leg fixture, he has the benefit of being up against Spain’s weakest defender in Pedro Porro who can be over-exuberant when pushing forward which should give Gakpo space in behind here.

Van Dijk usually looks so assured at the back for Liverpool but the picture for his national side is slightly different. Van Dijk isn’t offered as much protection on the international stage which isn’t a dig at his ability but rather a recognition that he has to do more defensive work as the supporting cast around him isn’t at the level it is for his club side. Van Dijk committed three fouls in the first leg and was continually dragged into areas of the pitch he doesn’t necessarily want to be in, particularly when isolated in wide areas up against Lamine Yamal or Nico Williams who are excellent in those 1v1 duels. We can also see this change when comparing Van Dijk’s foul averages for club and country this season. He’s only averaging 0.41 fouls committed per 90 across his 29 appearances for Liverpool in the Premier League this season compared to 1.23 fouls committed per 90 in the Nations League this campaign. A clear increase which suggests that Van Dijk is more regularly challenged for his national side, resulting in an increase in fouls on the international stage.

The first leg produced four goals and the second leg could carry on in that manner. Spain have seen over 2.5 goals in five of their seven games in the Nations League this season, they can do the majority of the heavy-lifting themselves in crossing this line with their excellent scoring power, namely through the talented duo of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. Netherlands will offer a threat themselves, Ronald Koeman’s side were unlucky not to come into this second leg with a lead after only conceding in the 96th minute by which point they were reduced to 10 men. Netherlands have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their seven games in the Nations League this season. As this tie is finely poised, a goal will open the game up which should see the floodgates open with neither side likely to sit back and protect a slender lead if they manage to get their noses in front. Netherlands may also be encouraged by a slightly weakened Spanish backline due to injury.

Spain had six shots on target to Netherlands’ four in the first leg of this tie. Admittedly, quite a lot of this Spain pressure only came after Netherlands were reduced to 10 men with Ronald Koeman’s side doing well to manage the threat of Spain before then. Spain are averaging 7.0 shots on target per game across their seven games in the Nations League this season, more than any other side in the competition. Spain tend to be on top at home, they’ve won all three of their games on home soil scoring seven goals in the process and conceding just two. They should have control of the game, especially early on which should help them establish a lead in the shot on target count. Netherlands are averaging 5.0 shots on target per game in the Nations League this season, which is a pretty respectable record but is likely to fall short of the total that Spain post here given their elevated status as the home side and with the variety of attacking options they have to test Netherlands in the final third.