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Croatia v Italy
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Kick Off: Monday 24th June at 20:00
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Watch Live: BBC One
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Competition: Euro 2024
The so-called group of death, Group B, reaches its final hours for matchday three. Croatia come into this game knowing nothing less than a win will give them a chance to progress to the knockout rounds. A point will be enough for Italy, but they’ll be optimistic about their chances of winnning considering how shaky Croatia have been so far.
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The Croatians fell behind to Albania in their last game and then took the lead, as the Italians did, but unlike Italy, they fell to an injury time equaliser which was a hammer blow for their qualification chances, giving them everything to play for on their final group stage matchday.
Italy were brave against Spain, employing a back four, which left them more exposed than the wing back system they’ve favoured in recent games. They won’t be facing the same level of threat from Croatia on paper but will still have to be on guard against a team that created a 2.38 xG figure against Spain and 2.69 against Albania.
Italy’s goals against Albania came from Alessandro Bastoni and central midfielder Nico Barella, and they’ll be wanting more from their more attacking players, including Gianluca Scamacca.
Croatia v Italy Best Bets
Given the context of the group and Croatia having to aggressively go for the win, we feel this doesn’t suit their natural way of playing of taking the game to the opposition, rather than a more patient, controlled possession game.
Having conceded 5 goals in those their games, Italy have more than enough quality in forward and midfield areas to hurt this Croatian defence and Spaletti showed he can send his team out with a bold game plan, as he did against Spain.
Italy have lost their final group game in only one of the last nine appearances in the UEFA European Championships and certainly appear to be the more potent side in this clash, as Croatia continue their struggle to get back to their old, dominant ways. Therefore, an Italy win at 2.38 with Betfair is our best bet for this huge Group B matchup.
The Italy Half Time/Full Time result too holds value as a longshot selection, considering the recent scoring data. Croatia have scored the opener in just four of their last ten now and concede 54% of their goals by half time, whilst the Italians have scored the opening goal six times in their last ten matches. If we also look at goal times, they have also scored 64% of their goals in the first half in that time frame. This is priced at 3.60 with Paddy Power.
📂 Croatia v Italy Cheat Sheet
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You can find Croatia v Italy match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
📊 Croatia Form and Stats
Croatia came into matchday two on the back of a 3-0 defeat where they actually created a higher xG output than Spain and crafted plenty of chances. They could feel hard done by with the scoreline and could have snuck a draw with a little more fortune.
Albania took the lead against them in game two before a rousing Croatia comeback, only for the game to finish 2-2 after a late Albanian equaliser. This means they come into matchday three knowing that anything but a win will almost certainly see them going home before the knockout rounds begin.
Although their expected attacking output in the group stage so far exceeds their average goal count in qualifying, looking back now over Croatia’s past 10 games, they have kept a clean sheet in just four of them. With five goals now shipped in those opening two games, Italy will feel confident of creating chances against the Croatian backline.
📊 Italy Form and Stats
In contrast to Croatia, where their underlying metrics could make a case for them being fortunate, Italy are on the other end of the spectrum in their last appearance.
They created a 0.16 xG output against Spain and had just one shot on target in the whole match. The Spanish had 20 attempts at goal with nine of them landing on target, so the Azzurri could feel quite fortunate to have only lost the game 1-0.
What will concern Italy is the lack of goal threat coming from Gianluca Scamacca who still has just one international goal in 18 appearances. His direct replacement, Mateo Retegui, has four goals in his 10 Italy caps and was the last ‘number 9’ to score for Italy – against Venezuela in March. Luciano Spaletti has a conundrum in whether to stick with Scamacca or make a potential change for this game.
⚔️ Croatia v Italy Head-to-Head
The two sides have met on eight occasions. Croatia have lost just one of these encounters, winning three in the process. Their last meeting was in qualifying for Euro 2016, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
The last and only time Italy have not beaten Croatia was way back in 1942, three years before Croatia joined the Yugoslav Republic. Since Croatia’s newfound independence, Italy have never managed to beat them in either friendlies or competitive meetings.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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