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Scotland v Croatia
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Kick Off: Friday 15th November at 19:45
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Competition: UEFA Nations League
Scotland host Croatia at Hampden on Friday, aiming to pick up their first victory in Nations League Group A1.
Steve Clarke’s side have equipped themselves well, on the whole, having taken this step up, but a lack of ruthlessness and a soft underbelly meant that October’s 0-0 draw with Portugal was the first point they took in the competition.
Croatia, meanwhile, are seeking to secure their place in the quarter-finals, which they will do if they match Poland’s result against Portugal and do not lose in Glasgow.
⭐ Scotland v Croatia Best Bets
The odds may not suggest it, but Scott McTominay is Scotland’s biggest threat against Croatia, having scored ten goals in his last 13 competitive international matches.
Across these games, he has only failed to have a shot on target on three occasions, and while one of those was in Croatia, he has otherwise had five across three matches.
He has only once failed to register a shot on target in one of his last six home competitive games – an effective dead rubber against Norway a year ago.
👕 Scotland v Croatia Predicted XI
🔍 Scotland v Croatia Key Players
🔴 Igor Matanovic
Eintracht Frankfurt striker Matanovic has started the last three matches for Croatia and has been prolific when it has come to getting away shots.
He has had at least three shots in three of his four Nations League appearances, including the previous match against Scotland, a fixture that he scored in.
With the Scots fragile at that match, expect the striker, who is out of favour at club level, to make his mark in this clash.
🔵 John McGinn
McGinn may not have been in top form for Scotland for much of the last 18 months, but he remains a foul magnet, having drawn ten already in the Nations League. This puts him tied 11th in the competition, yet he has played only two matches, earning five free-kicks in each of his two previous outings.
Across his last eight competitive international starts, McGinn has earned at least two free kicks on seven occasions.
🔵 Lyndon Dykes
Dykes will start this match as a player simply designed to make a nuisance of himself in attack, and in previous Scotland games, this has resulted in him picking up a high number of fouls.
The Birmingham striker is drawing fouls at a rate of 3.2 per 90 in this competition, winning three against Croatia last month.
He has been fouled at least once in 12 of his last 14 competitive international starts.
📂 Scotland v Croatia Cheat Sheet
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Aside from this betting preview, we’ve also got a Greece v England Betting Preview and Greece v England Bet Builder Predictions in store, as well as France v Israel Betting Tips, Belgium v Italy Predictions, and a Home Nations Acca covering England, and Scotland, and Wales’ matches this week.
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💻 Scotland v Croatia Form and Tactics
Scotland’s results might not suggest it, but performances in the Nations League have been rather encouraging. Clarke’s side, though, were unable to hold onto the lead away to either Portugal or Croatia, while they were punished for a poor first-half performance against Poland in their previous Hampden fixture, which they ultimately lost 3-2.
Defensive problems have been the main issue. Although the Scots shut out Portugal in their previous match, they had conceded at least two goals in each of their prior three outings.
There is weakness across the whole defence, where neither the centre-backs nor available right-backs are up to it at this level – a fact that remains coming into these final matches.
Clarke’s defensive approach has varied. At times Scotland have pressed intently and at others, they have sat back. They have been at their best when most proactive, allowing the likes of John McGinn to be a nuisance, even if in-form Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay remains the overwhelming goal threat, having netted two of their four goals.
Indeed, Scotland get little from their centre-forward other than nuisance value and, ideally, some link-up play, so their fortunes hinge on the midfield. Billy Gilmour and Ryan Christie have been their other scorers. The Bournemouth star has looked strong in a deep midfield role in the Premier League, so he could potentially start here, freeing up McTominay and McGinn to support the centre-forward and crash the box.
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If the home side’s fortunes still revolve around hard running and endeavor, Croatia are a more technical side.
They have had at least 50% of the ball in all four games they have played in the Nations League, which has translated to 17 shots per game, with six of these hitting the target. Their 9% conversation rate is middle of the road.
Offensively, they are dominated by forward Igor Matanovic, who scored against Scotland last time out, and Andrej Kramaric, who was used slightly deeper but also netted against Clarke’s side. Throw in veteran Luka Modric, who plays virtually every minute given his reduced time at Real Madrid, and more than half of Croatia’s shots are accounted for.
Their style, meanwhile, does not led itself to games that have big foul counts. Indeed, there are only four teams across the Nations League who have seen fewer total fouls than the Croats’ tally of 73 (Andorra, Finland, San Marino, and Norway).
This does contrast sharply with Scotland, however, with Clarke’s side having drawn 64 fouls (16 per game) – the joint-second highest figure in the whole competition.
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🏁 Scotland v Croatia Ref Watch
- Referee: Orel Grinfeld (Israel)
- Grinfeld has officiated 11 games this season, scoring 59 cards, a rate of 5.36 per game. He has shown five reds – 0.45 per game.
- Has awarded three penalties, including one in the Nations League match between Georgia and the Czech Republic.
- In his three matches in the Champions League, Europa League, and Nations League this season, he has awarded an average of 24.0 fouls per game.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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