Crystal Palace have seen an average of 2.38 goals per game in their matches so far this season, scoring at a rate of 1.06 goals per game (17) and conceding an average of 1.31 goals per game (21). The underlying data suggests that this is fair and they have averaged 1.09 expected goals for and 1.49 expected goals against so far this season. Both teams to score has landed in exactly half of their games. At home however, this number rises to 63% of their matches, and they tend to create better chances. They average 1.24 xGF at Selhurst Park but can still be open at the back at times and they concede an average of 1.39 xG in their home in south London. They are yet to see a 0-0 there this season and both teams to score has landed in four of their last six.

Tottenham have seen many more goals over the past few weeks, with an average of three per game away from home this season and 3.41 across the country. They have scored almost two per game (1.94) but concede almost three across two games (1.47 per game). Both teams to score has landed in 65% of their games and in five of their last six. The data suggests that this is not a surprise. Away from home they concede 1.55 xG per game and create 1.35 expected goals. They also tend to overperform on expected goals due to the quality of Kane and Son up front. Conte will be hoping for a big reaction and they will need to create much more than they did against Villa where they accumulated just 0.58 expected goals for whilst conceding 1.25.

Spurs have a lot to thank Harry Kane for right now. Due to the new boy on the block at Manchester City, Kane’s goal record looks incredibly average but he has scored 13 in 17 for them in the league, getting an assist as well. He looks well on his way to beating his best goal total (23) since 2017/18 but that is likely to still not be enough for him to get golden boot this season. He averages 0.77 expected goals per game which would be an expectation of 13.09 goals to this point, showing that he is in form with the data and that this form is continuable. He has scored three in his last five and showed good form in the World Cup too. He had three assists and two goals across England’s five matches and this selection landed on four occasions.

At Spurs, Kane has played Crystal Palace 16 times in the league. He has scored eight times and got five assists against the Eagles and in his last six games alone against them he has contributed to eight goals. If Kane was to score here, he’d become the first ever Premier League player to score ten goals on six different days of the week, and only Friday would be missing.

Jeffrey Schlupp has conceded eight more fouls than any other Crystal Palace so far this season with 30 and per my cheat sheet averages 2.13. In his last eight starts, he has conceded at least two in all of those and at least three in five of them – accounting over two thirds of his fouls for the season. His versatility means he can play anywhere from defensive midfield to either wing or full back and there does not appear to be much difference in the number of fouls he commits. He will have a tough game on either side whether it is against Son (Spurs’ second most fouled player behind Kane), Kulusevski or Perisic. He could also face off with Hojbjerg and Oliver Skipp in midfield.

Since 2017, Schlupp has started against Tottenham five times. In those five games he has committed at least two fouls in all of them and 13 across the starts. He did not start either of the games against Spurs last season but given how he normally matches up against them, evens is a generous price.

Zaha is also Palace’s main penalty taker and is often on free kicks. While friendlies are not always the best marker, Zaha scored twice in their recent friendly against Real Valladolid and also got one in the previous friendly against Napoli. Zaha is Palace’s top scorer with 6 goals this season and has scored in both his previous games against Fulham, he should be a key player in this game.

Crystal Palace games this season average 4.38 cards per game and 4.25 per game at Selhurst Park. They receive an average of 2.38 cards per game and have seen two cards shown in 63% of their games. They have seen two cards in four of their last five home games and in seven of their last ten Premier League matches across the country. Away from home, Spurs draw 2.38 cards per game and this selection has landed in 63% of their games and in exactly half of their last six.

This is a London derby of sorts and both sides will be desperate for a result for different reasons so there should be plenty of challenges flying in here.

The referee for this game is Michael Oliver. Over the course of his career he has shown 1.82 cards per game for the home side and has shown two cards to them in 58% of his matches. In the Premier League this season he has shown 1.77 cards per game to those hosting and has shown 2+ home cards in 54% of matches. Over the past four Premier League games he has taken charge of he has shown seven cards to the home side and six to the visitors.