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Derby v Charlton Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Derby v Charlton Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Monday 29 September, 20253 min read
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ABC Editorial Team

The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

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John Eustace has not yet been able to implement his usual tactic of making his home ground a fortress for Derby County at Pride Park. Can the in-form Charlton under Nathan Jones continue to break down those castle walls and walk away with their third win in a row?

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Derby v Charlton Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Derby v Charlton
  • Championship
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 5.68

Charlton Double Chance

I am surprised that Charlton aren't a bit shorter for this match. They have had a much more impressive start than Derby, and though they are clearly rated a better team on neutral ground, they have also shown that they are more than capable on the road already this season.

Charlton got their first away win of the season against Sheffield United, which got that monkey off their back, and their supremely competent and confident performance against Blackburn last time out tells us where this team is at right now.

Conversely, Derby have been scrapping for points in every match so far. They lost all of their xG battles until last weekend, but they have managed to avoid defeat enough to make taking the draw alongside a Charlton win look like a better strategy.

Lloyd Jones to have 1+ Shots

Jones is Charlton's main set piece threat, and as a result he is getting regular shots off this season. 

He is averaging 1.3 shots per 90 this season, and he is playing every minute for Charlton, so late corners still have a chance of him taking a shot.

He has started seven matches this season and has taken a shot in six of those matches, including two in one match and three in another.

If Charlton have a good amount of possession and territory in this match, as I suspect they will, then this looks a good price.

Sonny Carey to have 2+ Shots

Carey is the midfielder who has been given most licence to roam by Nathan Jones.

This has been exploited to the full by Carey, who has started his Charlton career really strongly. He has goals, including last week, and he is actually leading Charlton in shots per 90 at 2.88.

He has covered this line in every start this season, seven out of seven. He is also a player who is playing a lot of minutes, consistently staying on the pitch for around 80 minutes.

Carey will shoot from range, but he also finds good positions in the box to get a shot away from, making him a threat across the whole game.

Derby Over 1.5 Cards

This looks like a very workable line for Derby here. 

They have had more cards than this line in their last five matches. They are averaging 2.23 cards per match over their last 30 matches, and they are committing the 2nd-highest number of fouls per 90 of any club in the Championship behind Millwall, 13.3 fouls per match.

With a midfield pairing of Ebou Adams and Lewis Travis, the chances of a caution are always there, plus the style of play that we have seen from Derby so far has been very combative, spending a lot of time out of possession.

Derby have picked up 23 yellow cards so far in the Championship this season, more than any other team. This could be a battle on the pitch against a physical team, so I like this angle a lot.

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📈 Derby v Charlton Form & Tactics

Derby are very short on wins at this stage of the season. They broke their duck with a 1-0 victory at West Brom on 13th September, but that was very much of the smash and grab mould, having lost the xG battle by over 1.

There is something of a balance issue that Eustace needs to address for Derby. Only twice have they scored more than once in a game this season, but they won neither match.

Derby sit bottom of the league for expected goals (5.1), 22nd for shots on target per match (2.3), and bottom for touches in the opposition area (104), so it is clear to see the issues in terms of getting them into position to win matches. Unfortunately, they are also 19th for xG conceded as well, so there is not much wiggle room to sacrifice structure for freedom.

From a Charlton perspective, things couldn’t be going much better for Nathan Jones. They are in the top half of the league following consecutive wins over Sheffield United (A) and Blackburn (H), and the 3-0 win over Rovers, in particular, will give them great confidence heading into this match.

Charlton have conceded the joint-fewest goals in the league so far (five) and have the highest number of clean sheets (four). This tallies well with the fact that they are 3rd in the league for xG conceded (5.5), which means that this great defensive record is no fluke; they are denying teams goalscoring opportunities and reaping the benefits of that.


📔 Derby v Charlton Formation & Team News

Derby have been using a 3-4-3 regularly this season, but in an attempt to change things, Eustace went for a 4-4-2 shape at the weekend, and allowed big-money summer signing Patrick Agyemang his first start. The use of Carlton Morris, Ben Brereton Diaz, and Andreas Weimann all in the same team could seem adventurous to many; however, we could easily see the same XI on Tuesday night.

Left back Owen Beck is close to a return to action for Derby, but there is unlikely to be much change in the squad from Saturday’s match.

Nathan Jones is flexible in his team selections. He used a 4-3-3 formation last time out against Blackburn, and it was very effective. He probably used this as he sensed an opportunity at home to change the balance of the team somewhat, but it is unknown now whether he will switch back to his more usual 3-5-2. Miles Leaburn is a potential option to partner Charlie Kelman and/or Tyreece Campbell in that shape.

Josh Edwards is a doubt after having to leave the Blackburn match early, Macaulay Gillesphey is likely to deputise if Edwards can’t make it. Luke Berry, Will Mannion, and Matty Godden are likely to be missing for Charlton.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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