Sonny Carey did this column a favour last weekend when he kept up his fine goalscoring form, despite Blackpool losing at home to Leyton Orient.

Sometimes there’s an urge to walk away from a player once they’ve landed you a winning bet, but we shouldn’t. Carey is actually available to score at a larger price this weekend v Northampton than he was last weekend v Orient.

Carey has now scored four goals in his last three matches, twice v Barnsley, once v Cambridge and last Saturday’s goal v Leyton Orient. He is currently one of the most shot heavy players in the EFL.

His last four appearance have seen him take four shots v Peterborough for 0.28xG, seven shots v Barnsley for 1.54xG, five shots v Cambridge for 0.19xG and another five shots v Leyton Orient for 0.93xG.

Northampton aren’t a team that you can trust to shut out an opponent. Only Peterborough, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge, Shrewsbury and Crawley have conceded more goals than the Cobblers this season.

The bookies aren’t reacting to Carey’s increased goal threat since he moved to a left-wing position in the team, which has led to him cutting inside the pitch which enhances his shot volume.

Sil Swinkels is another repeat pick from last weekend. There’s a big price discrepancy with regards to Swinkels with his anytime scorer odds ranging from single figure quotes up to a high of 18/1.

The 18/1 is too high for a player who has already shown himself to be a set-piece threat since signing for Bristol Rovers on a January loan from Aston Villa. Swinkels scored on debut v Stockport with his only shot on target that had an xG value of 0.24. The following two matches passed by without Swinkels managing a shot, but he only played nine minutes v Burton and 52 minutes v Wycombe.

Swinkels then scored from his only effort at goal with an xG value of 0.38 v Rotherham in his first Bristol Rovers start. He hasn’t scored in the four matches since but had shots at goal v both Huddersfield (0.04xG) and Bolton (0.23xG).

Crawley represent a good opportunity for Bristol Rovers to add to their set-piece goal record. They conceded from two corners to Huddersfield last weekend and have conceded 71 League One goals this season – nine more than the next worst team Shrewsbury.

On average, Crawley give up 6.32 corners per game in League One this season and have faced a shot from 33% of the corners they’ve conceded.

Motivation should be high for Bristol Rovers here. They are the team most hunted ahead of the League One relegation zone and this is their final fixture of the season against one of the current bottom four.