EFL Final Day Permutations

The final day of the EFL's regular season takes place on Saturday, with the Championship, League One, and League Two all coming to a close.

There's plenty to play for in all three divisions, and our EFL expert is here to walk you through the title races, play-off chases and battles to avoid relegation across all three divisions.

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Championship Permutations

The Title

Leeds and Burnley are tied on 97 points, but Leeds have a goal difference advantage of +13. As long as Leeds equal or better Burnley’s result, they will be Champions.

It would be the first time in history that two teams in the same league have reached 100 points, and the first season in history to have three teams score 100 points in the EFL as a whole, with Birmingham City already on 108 in League One.

Both teams are also already assured of their automatic promotion spots.

Play-Offs

Bristol City are in the strongest position in 5th. If they win at home against Preston, then they will finish 5th regardless of any other result. They could also finish in the play-offs with a draw or defeat, but those results would bring in some potential challengers from outside the current top six.

Coventry are in 6th, and are at home to 9th-placed Middlesbrough. Coventry need to equal or better the results of Millwall and Blackburn to secure their top six berth. If they lose to Middlesbrough, then the Teessiders will definitely finish above the Sky Blues. Even then, Middlesbrough would have to rely on Millwall and Blackburn both failing to leapfrog both clubs into 5th or 6th, depending on Bristol City’s result.

Millwall have the toughest fixture. They are away at Burnley, who have the motivation of 100 points and the title to go for. If Millwall win, then they still are relying on Bristol City and/or Coventry not winning to get into the top six. A draw would be enough for Millwall to displace Coventry if Middlesbrough beat them, but Boro’s better goal difference would see them above Millwall in that case, so it has to be a win at Turf Moor for Alex Neil’s Lions, a feat that has eluded 22 other Championship teams this term.

Blackburn have an interesting fixture at Sheffield United. The Blades are confirmed in 3rd, but they certainly showed no signs of slacking against Stoke last week. Blackburn also have to win given the Coventry v Middlesbrough dynamic, and if Rovers do win, then they also need two of Millwall, Coventry, or Bristol City to drop points.

Relegation

Every team not already down has their fate in their own hands here.

Cardiff and Plymouth are already relegated, barring a miraculous 14-goal swing to Luton for the Pilgrims against Leeds.

Hull City currently sit below the dotted line and travel to Portsmouth on final day. If Hull win, they definitely stay up because of the permutations involving Derby and Stoke. A draw could be enough for Hull if Luton or Preston lose, or if Derby lose by three or more goals.

Luton stay up if they equal or better Hull’s result. A win away at West Brom guarantees safety, a draw would be enough to leapfrog Preston or Derby as well, if those clubs lose their fixtures. A loss would only see Luton safe if Hull also lose.

Preston travel to Bristol City with similar permutations to Luton. Due to Preston’s superior goal difference, they can equal or better Hull or Luton’s result to remain safe. A win obviously keeps them up, a draw could see them rise above Derby or Stoke if that match doesn't end in a draw. A loss would keep Preston up if Luton or Hull also lose.

Derby play Stoke at Pride Park, and as long as Derby avoid defeat and one of Hull, Luton or Preston don’t win, then Derby stay up. A loss would also be fine as long as one of those three lose their match. Stoke can only go down if they lose to Derby and Preston draw or win, Luton win, and Hull win.

League One Permutations

The Title

Birmingham have done it all. They have the record points total in history already, their only motivation is to stretch it to 111 points.

Automatic Promotion

Wrexham are confirmed in second place.

Play-Offs

4th-placed Wycombe host 3rd-placed Stockport on the final day. Both are confirmed in the play-offs, and a draw would see both clubs finish where they are and avoid each other in the semi-finals, unless Charlton rack up a five-goal win against Burton Albion.

If there is a winner in the Wycombe v Stockport match, then that team will finish 3rd, and Charlton would finish 4th with a win over Burton Albion. Charlton are also confirmed for the play-offs.

The 6th position is to be fought over by Reading and Leyton Orient.

Orient currently have the advantage due to a +8 better goal difference, so they need to equal or better Reading’s result to stay in the play-off positions. Orient travel to Huddersfield, and Reading host Barnsley.

Relegation

All relegation positions have been filled. Crawley Town, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge United, and Shrewsbury Town will play League Two football next season.

League Two Permutations

The Title

This is a straight shoot-out between Doncaster Rovers and Port Vale.

Doncaster have a point more than Vale, but face a tricky fixture at Notts County, who have a very outside chance of automatic promotion.

Vale are at home to Gillingham. A win would be enough for Vale to win the title if Doncaster don’t beat Notts County.

Automatic Promotion

We know that Notts County have an outside chance. They are currently 5th and need a win over Doncaster, while also requiring Bradford to lose and Walsall to fail to win.

Bradford hold all the cards currently. They have a point more than Walsall, and three more than County, but with a worse goal difference. The Bantams host Fleetwood, and a draw could leave them susceptible to Walsall, but would see off County.

Walsall travel to Crewe, who have nothing to play for. A draw would be enough if Bradford lose, and a win would be good enough if Bradford draw.

Play-Offs

There are still two places up for grabs in the top seven.

AFC Wimbledon are in 6th, but a loss against Grimsby would guarantee that the Mariners go above them, and if Salford or Chesterfield also won, then Wimbledon would miss out on the play-offs. Wimbledon can move up to 5th with a win and a Notts County defeat.

Salford know that a win for them away at already-relegated Carlisle would guarantee them a crack at the post-season. A draw would also be fine if neither Grimsby or Chesterfield win, or Colchester don’t win by six or more. Losing would leave them open to a Grimsby or Chesterfield draw, or a Colchester win.

A Grimsby win guarantees top seven as they would go above AFC Wimbledon. A draw would be enough if Salford lose and neither Chesterfield or Colchester win.

Chesterfield can win and still miss out if two of Wimbledon, Grimsby or Salford win. They'd still miss out if Wimbledon v Grimsby is a draw and Salford beat Carlisle, even if they win. A draw would be enough if both Salford and Grimsby lose, and Colchester don’t win. If Salford don’t win, they’re right in the mix because of the permutations with Wimbledon playing Grimsby.

Colchester have to win and hope that Salford lose, and either Grimsby or Chesterfield don’t win.

Relegation

Carlisle and Morecambe will finish 23rd and 24th and will be relegated to the National League.

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