The performance against Brazil was typical friendly fare from England. The Three Lions have rarely impressed completely in friendlies going back a long time, but, actually the results have been generally good in these uncompetitive affairs.

Going back into the last 10 England home friendlies, England have conceded only twice. Once to Endrick last week, and once to Breel Embolo of Switzerland in 2022.

Friendlies have become a rare enough occasion in international football of late thanks to the Nations League, so the list of England friendlies goes back to 2018. Interestingly, England had won their last eleven home friendlies going back to a 1-1 draw against Italy in March 2018 for all the derision against Southgate and team after the Brazil match, that is a fairly impressive record.

Very few of these matches have seen many goals though. Both Teams To Score has collected only twice in ten, over 2.5 goals in half of the matches, though only two in the last six.

Belgium’s record in friendlies isn’t bad either. They have played 10 in this decade, with a record of won 5, drawn 4, and lost only one, away to Egypt in 2022. The Belgians went to Germany and won in 2023, but only drew 0-0 in Ireland last week.

An England win looks the most likely result, but there must be doubt given the previous performance and potential rotation to the team from Southgate. A draw looks a good price in the circumstances, especially given how even many of England’s home friendlies are in the data.

Whilst England are usually very stingy from a defensive perspective in qualification and tournament matches, there is some vulnerability to them in friendlies.

England have averaged conceding 3 shots on target in the last ten home friendlies, including 5 against Brazil and 4 for each of Switzerland, Australia, Romania, and Austria in the last six.

This should give a chance to the Belgian attack. This is a team built to service a centre forward, Lukaku made way for Lois Openda against Ireland, but the RB Leipzig man failed to convert any chances, so Lukaku is favourite to start against England.

The Chelsea loanee is Belgium’s top scorer of all time and has been averaging almost 3 shots on target per match for Belgium of late, so his price for at least one here seems fair.

It is likely to be all-change in the England front line with Jarrod Bowen, Marcus Rashford, and Ivan Toney potentially starting. There is little England data to read for this forward line, expect on Marcus Rashford.

The Manchester United forward has averaged 1.67 shots on target during Euro 2024 qualifying, so looks a good addition for one in this friendly. England average over 5 shots on target per home friendly, and Rashford should be a key target for one here.

It was clear to anyone watching the match against Brazil that Jude Bellingham has become a marked man.

The England #10 was fouled consistently in the manner that previous #10s such as Maradona would have encountered in their own pomp. Bellingham looks a fair price to be met with similar treatment from the Belgians, with the multiple fouls lines looing helpful here.

For Belgium, Jeremy Doku, is the obvious choice for a player to be fouled. However, his price seems generous for a player who enjoys carrying the ball and dribbling as much as the Man City wide man. He is averaging being fouled over twice a game for Belgium, and, again, the multiple lines look to be best options for Doku.

Suggested line-ups for this match, when taking into consideration all of the withdrawals and injury concerns would suggest that Ezri Konsa, who came on for his debut at right-back last week, will start in that position here, and, given the lack of options in the squad at the moment, has a chance of playing a good number of minutes.

As mentioned above, Jeremy Doku is also likely to start, and if so, Konsa’s current price for a foul is surely great value.

Ivan Toney will be looking to make an impact on international debut as well and usually he makes an impact on the opposition back line. He has averaged around 1.8 fouls per 90 for each of the last three Premier League seasons, and his physical style could take a bit of time to adjust to international football.