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England v Bosnia & Herzegovina
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Kick Off: Monday 3rd June at 19:45
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Competition: International Friendly
The friendlies that lead into a major tournament are always a massive source of intrigue. Who will play? Will the manager look to play his best XI? If so, for how long? Will any of the fringe players get their chance to play? If so, will they take that chance and will that make a difference to the squad that goes to the finals?
These, and many more, are all valid questions, and interesting for the fans of the teams that are preparing, but what concerns this betting preview is, what trends can we learn from the previous iterations of pre-tournament friendlies that can help win some bets here.
Therefore, there will be some analysis conducted of England’s previous approaches to major tournaments, especially under Gareth Southgate, as well as a brief look into the form of both nations heading into this match.
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England v Bosnia & Herzegovina Best Bets
Given previous history one can expect Southgate to play his preferred formation ahead of this tournament, which looks to be a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, with as many of his first team starting the match as are fit and able.
Obviously, this will not include Jude Bellingham, who has the small matter of a Champions League final to contend, or Luke Shaw, who is not fit to start.
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⚔️ England v Bosnia & Herzegovina Head-to-Head
This is the first time in men’s international football history that the senior sides of England and Bosnia & Herzegovina have met.
The England team met Yugoslavia, which Bosnia & Herzegovina formed part of, on 14 occasions, with five wins for each side and four draws. However, the last meeting between the nations was in 1989, rendering this form pretty meaningless ahead of this clash.
📊 England Form and Stats
England haven’t won in their last three matches, since the 17th November victory at home to Malta.
Since then, they drew in a Euro qualifier, albeit when already qualified, in North Macedonia, lost at home to Brazil and drew with Belgium in home friendlies at Wembley.
While this is too small a sample size to hold much meaning to suggest that England are in poor form, it would also be fair to say that the Three Lions aren’t in flying form either. The defeat to Brazil was deserved when looking at the xG figures which showed an advantage to the Brazilians of 1.37 xG to 2.53 xG, but the Belgium friendly had England at 2.92 xG to Belgium’s 1.15.
Before the defeat to Brazil, England had an excellent record in home friendlies. The last defeat before the Brazil match in March was way back in 2016 to the Netherlands.
This will be the fourth match that England have played at St James’ Park in the 21st century. All of the previous three were comfortable wins, 2-0 v Albania in 2001, 3-0 v Ukraine in 2004, and 2-0 v Azerbaijan in 2005.
📊 England in home friendlies and pre-tournament matches
England -4 = -4 Handicap
England have an excellent overall record in home friendlies. The March international break dented that, but a return to playing against sub-world-class opposition may well see a return to the kind of dominance that England showed before those matches against FIFA Top 5 ranked nations.
England had conceded only once and won nine friendlies in a row up until that point. The other main trend that can be seen here is a lack of cards, especially for England. The Three Lions have not seen a card in six of the 11 friendlies in the chart, three of the matches haven’t seen any cards at all.
The table below shows all of England’s pre-tournament matches under Gareth Southgate.
England won all of their pre-tournament friendlies in preparation for the 2016 Euros, the 2018 World Cup and the delayed Euro 2020 tournament, all by a margin of one or two goals.
As a result of the tight scheduling ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, England had to use the Nations League matches against Italy and Germany as their last matches before the tournament. England had a shocking Nations League campaign that season, and only a second half Jude Bellingham-inspired fightback against Germany at home avoided back-to-back defeats pre-tournament.
Again, in none of the above matches did England earn more bookings than their opponents.
In terms of strength of line-up, Southgate has tended to start something close to his strongest line-up in his preferred formation, injuries and fitness permitting. There were only two changes against Turkey in 2016, six changes in 2018 in the second half, and five against Austria in the second half in 2021.
With so many first-choice players looking like they could miss the first friendly, there may not be as much coherence around the England team as Southgate would historically have liked going into the warm-up fixtures.
The preferred shape will surely be retained with a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 likely to be used. The left-sided forward position is of interest for a best bet, because it seems likely that either Jack Grealish or Eberechi Eze could be used in that role. In either case, those players are big carriers of the ball and big attractors for winning fouls. We can see in the table above that opposition players have picked up yellow cards in all of England’s pre-tournament friendlies in the past, so there are likely to still be a number of fouls in this friendly against England.
Up against the left forward will likely be a combination of Sheffield United’s right centre-back Anel Ahmedhodzic and Sturm Graz’s right wing-back Jusuf Gazibegovic. Both men have averaged over a foul a game in their domestic football, both this season, and over the course of their careers. Given the likelihood of their opponents it is easy to see both men picking up at least one foul each in this match, especially when one observes the price of a foul on Grealish or Eze, both priced a shorter than 1/10.
The double on Ahmedhodzic and Gazibegovic to foul at least once each is attractive at 2.15.
📊 Bosnia & Herzegovina Form and Stats
Bosnia & Herzegovina failed to qualify for Euro 2024, finishing fifth in a six-nation group just above Liechtenstein. They won three of their ten qualifiers, with their home win against Iceland the only one that wasn’t over the minnows.
However, Bosnia & Herzegovina almost knocked Ukraine out in Nations League play-off qualification, leading 1-0 in Sarajevo until the 86th minute.
It is the away form that is most concerning though, other than the victory in Liechtenstein, they haven’t won outside of home soil since 2021 in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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