In this article…
England v Slovakia
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Kick Off: Sunday 30th June at 17:00
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Watch Live: BBC One
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Competition: Euro 2024
The first of two Round of 16 clashes on Sunday sees England taking on Slovakia for the right to play the winner of Switzerland v Italy.
England’s knockout stage campaign begins here, but regardless of how far the Three Lions progress, we will be here with daily Euro 2024 betting predictions, with each individual game covered for the rest of the tournament. Each game will have a dedicated betting preview such as this one, and a corresponding set of bet builder tips and a longshot, like our England v Slovakia bet builder tips for this game.
Until July 14th when the tournament concludes, we will be posting a variety of Euro 2024 acca tips and weekly both teams to score predictions, along with daily shot on target predictions and foul betting tips to take advantage of with our list of the best bet builder bookmakers. Once you’re set up with an account, check out our expert football tips to ensure you’re making the most of your money.
For those of you looking to get involved for the first time at these finals, our curated selection of the best Euro 2024 free bets & sign up offers is the perfect place to start.
England qualified as group winners out of Group C, but that feels like it deserves to come with something of an asterisk.
First of all, England managed only two goals in the group stage, fewer than eliminated Albania, Czechia, and Poland, and their next opponents, Slovakia. Secondly, Group C will go down in Euros history as the lowest-scoring group in the history of the tournament, and this was not as a result of flagrantly missed chances, it was as a result of a lack of quality chance creation.
Slovakia emerged in third place in the other more remarkable group in the tournament. Group E had every team finishing on four points, Slovakia ended up in third as a result of goal difference but they knew that qualification would be secured with a draw with Romania going into their final group games regardless of any other results.
In one way this has been a really good draw for England, but Slovakia should possibly be thinking the same thing given England’s lack of quality in their performances so far.
England v Slovakia Best Bets
As a bookmaker, you have to make England favourites here. They have the recent pedigree of progression through these early knockout rounds under Gareth Southgate, often producing better performances in these rounds as compared to the group stages. Also, objectively, there is a big difference in the FIFA rankings between the two nations, 5th vs 45th, and historically England have the edge too.
The problem is the price and England’s form. One simply cannot tip a team who have struggled to score goals and create chances when the price is 1.36. Looking at the history and the way the teams have played there may be some value in looking at the correct score market, 1-0 to England is 5.0 and that seems like the most likely scenario.
In terms of standout best bets though, the best value is Denis Vavro, the Slovakian central defender, to have a shot. Vavro has had a shot in each of his last six starts for Slovakia, and though England are good at defending set pieces, they are also really good at preventing chances during open play, so Slovakia will be targeting set pieces as a real chance to score a goal. Vavro will be their key target in these scenarios.
Another bet that holds some appeal is a Harry Kane bet builder. There is a lot of data on the England captain at this stage and he feels like such a consistent performer that he can be relied upon for certain actions in a match like this. Backing Kane to get three or more shots off (at a solid price of 1.40), getting one or more on target and for him to be fouled at least once is 2.04. He achieved this in the Slovenia match last time out, and in both World Cup knockout matches in 2022 as well.
📂 England v Slovakia Cheat Sheet
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.
You can find England v Slovakia match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
📊 England Form and Stats
Taking into account the final qualifier and the pre-tournament friendlies, England’s form looks very suspect.
Two wins in their last eight matches, a 3-0 friendly win over Bosnia & Herzegovina, massaged by a couple of late goals, and a 1-0 win over Serbia in the first match of the tournament is doing all of the heavy lifting for the form, and neither of the wins were particularly convincing.
One positive that can be drawn from England’s recent form though is the lack of chances that they are giving up. They have conceded only once in the group stages, a howitzer from 25-30 yards from Morten Hjulmand, and they have given up only 1.15 xG in the three matches, restricting Serbia and Slovenia to 0.18 xG and 0.15 xG respectively.
This has come at the expense of chance creation as well, England haven’t managed to create shooting chances worth over 1 xG in any of the three matches either, and with a front four of such individual quality, it is difficult to imagine how this consistency of poor execution in the final third can continue.
📊 Slovakia Form and Stats
Slovakia, like the rest of Group E, ended up on four points. However, it is fairly difficult to assess the quality of their form.
They won the opener against Belgium 1-0, but it would be fair to say that on the balance of chances created they were fortunate to win that match, conceding two disallowed goals and 1.57 xG to the Belgians and creating only 0.57 xG themselves.
However, all of the Slovakia matches seem to have followed a similar pattern. They have performed well in the first half of matches, and taken the lead in all three matches. Against Belgium they hung on, against Ukraine, they conceded twice, and against Romania, they got the draw.
Lukas Haraslin, Ivan Schranz, Stanislav Lobotka, and Martin Dubravka have been standouts across the three matches for Slovakia.
⚔️ England v Slovakia Head-to-Head
England have beaten Slovakia in five of their six previous meetings, drawing the other in a Euro 2016 group encounter which ended 0-0. Interestingly, two of the key players in this forthcoming encounter, Milan Skirinar and Harry Kane both came on as late substitutes in that match, only Slovakian full-back Peter Pekarik remains from the starting lineups.
The last encounter between the pair was only a year later in the World Cup qualifiers. England won both encounters in that qualification group by one goal margins under Gareth Southgate.
Indeed, four of the five England wins against Slovakia came by a single-goal margin. The only change to that outcome was a 4-0 win for England in a home friendly.
The main theory to come out of the history between the nations is the tight nature of the previous competitive encounters, but the edge that England have managed to achieve in most cases. However, the form of the current versions of the national teams may mean that that edge may not play out here.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
