In Scotland’s last 10 matches, no player has committed more fouls than Aston Villa star John McGinn. Just as the busy central midfielder is a major influence to Steve Clarke’s side offensively, he is a busy and industrious defender, although at times he is not particularly cultured in this area of the game.
He has committed 16 fouls over the course of the last 10 games, which is at least twice as many as any other Scotland player with the exception of Jack Hendry and Ryan Christie, neither of whom is likely to start this match in any case.

McGinn is also committing 1.64 fouls per 90 minutes, which is higher than any other likely starter for Clarke’s men, so his price for just one infraction is excellent. He has committed at least one foul in six of his last seven internationals and typically plays the vast majority of minutes.

The other likely Scotland starter who offers genuine value to commit a foul is wing-back Aaron Hickey, who will be expected to cover a significant portion of ground over the course of the game. While Scott McTominay (1.07), Ryan Christie (1.11) and Che Adams (1.14) all commit more fouls per 90 than the Brentford defender, their odds do not reflect the relatively small gap in fouls committed. Hickey has averaged 0.8 over the course of his international career and has committed an infraction in each of his last couple.

He is likely to be on the front foot in this game, which may mean that he has to break up counterattacks down his flank, and this risk of getting caught out of position increases the prospect of committing a foul. He played the full 90 minutes in Scotland’s last international outing and there is a trend of him getting more minutes for Clark’s side so should play much of this game.

Cyprus have been a relatively clean team in recent games but Loizos Loizou is perhaps the pick of their players to commit a foul in this match. He plays as an inverted winger on the right side of the park and will find himself up against Andy Robertson and is, therefore, likely to be asked to do a good deal of tracking back in this match. This is not one of his strongest suits.

The teenager, who has likely not come up against an opponent of the Liverpool player’s stature in his young career before, already commits close to a foul on average when playing for Cyprus. Here, he will face one of the strongest left-backs in the world and will be expecting to spend much of the time on the back foot. Even one slip from the inexperienced player will see this bet a winner.

Cyprus’ forward Ioannis Pittas is likely to have a lonely and difficult afternoon in attack. His challenge will be to hold the ball up for his team-mates and will be challenged by a Scotland defence that is likely to be physical. This is liable to develop into a battle, and the prospect of the Apollon player giving away at least one foul is high.

He is a player who likes to cover a lot of ground and often drifts left, where he will find himself in the vicinity of Hickey, who is a player who typically draws a high number of fouls. At club level, he has committed at least one foul in five of his last six matches. He has started Cyprus’ last couple of matches, playing over 70 minutes on each occasion, which means that he is liable to get significant game time at Hampden.

Ethan Ampadu always springs to mind when betting on Wales games. The versatile player has featured in midfield for Wales in recent matches and he isn’t afraid to get stuck in.

He plays his club football for Spezia in Serie A and he is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90 minutes played in the league this season. This has translated to five yellow cards but he always seems a little more keen to dive in when putting on a Welsh shirt.

Ampadu averaged 3 fouls per 90 minutes played in the Nations League. He loves to win the ball back and he is a strong tackler. He should be busy in midfield with him being directly up against Modric, Kovacic and Brozovic. The tireless trio cover a lot of ground and the Welsh will have to battle hard to get anything out of this game.

Ampadu didn’t start the last time Wales played in Croatia. However, Joe Allen fulfilled his role in the midfield and picked up two fouls.

Croatia made 15 fouls the last time they hosted Wales; well above the average of 12.19 fouls for a team over the duration of qualifying.

Brozovic is the most prolific fouler for Croatia. The Inter midfielder earned a lot of plaudits for his performances in the World Cup. He is controlled in possession but he is also a workhorse when his team doesn’t have the ball. He covered 16.7km in his team’s win over Japan in Qatar; breaking a record that he previously held for distance covered in a match. This means he is often in a position to make a tackle and he inevitably makes a lot of fouls.

During the Nations League, the midfielder averaged 2.2 fouls per 90 minutes played. He was instrumental in his team’s run to the semi-finals of the World Cup but he averaged 2 fouls per 90 minutes played in that tournament.

Neco Williams is likely to start at right-back for Wales and this should mean he is up against Ivan Perisic. The Tottenham man is a real threat down that flank. The last time Wales played Croatia he lined up on the opposite flank. Despite this, the Welsh right-back still made a foul in that game.

Neco is averaging 1.7 fouls per 90 minutes played for Nottingham Forest in the Premier League this season. He remains a feisty player for his country. He averaged 1.5 fouls per 90 in the Nations League and 1.3 per game at the World Cup.

The 21 year old has made six fouls in his five Premier League matches leading up to this international break so he certainly has the form required for out bet to land.