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Following this international break, we will know 20 of the 23 teams that will accompany hosts Germany at Euro 2024. The top two teams from each of the ten groups automatically qualify and they will be accompanied by the three nations that are successful in the play-offs, which will involve the 12 teams that performed best in the recent UEFA Nations League but have failed to qualify directly through their Euro 2024 qualifying group.
Let’s take a look at which groups are likely to remain unchanged and those that still have plenty on the line, ahead of considering our bets for the international break.
Group A: Spain and Scotland can relax
Both Spain and Scotland have already confirmed their qualification in Group A, with Norway unable to catch either side. With fixtures against the sides that occupy the bottom two spots of the group, Cyprus and Georgia, current leaders Spain look likely to top the group. Aside from that there is little to play for, potentially a group to avoid as motivation could drop-off with less on the line.
Group B: Netherlands v Greece for second spot
France have already sealed qualification, having won all of their six games in Group B. Both Republic of Ireland and Gibraltar will not be able to make the top two, however, Netherlands and Greece find themselves fighting for second place.
Netherlands definitely have the advantage over Greece, possessing a game in hand and a better head-to-head record. Greece’s chances of qualification rely on Netherlands failing to beat both Ireland and Gibraltar. In the unlikely event that this happens, Greece will have to beat group leaders France in their final game, depending on the Netherlands results.
Group C: Italy to miss out again!?
England have already qualified with two games remaining. The battle for second place involves both Ukraine and Italy, with both sides still to play each other. Italy currently find themselves in third place, three points behind Ukraine, although they do have a game in hand, at home to North Macedonia.
Should Italy beat North Macedonia, they will move ahead of Ukraine, due to their better head-to-head record, therefore, a draw against Ukraine would then be sufficient for their qualification. However, should Italy fail to beat North Macedonia and not pick up a win against Ukraine, Ukraine will qualify. Make sure to keep your eye on all games involving Ukraine and Italy.
Group D: Wales back in business from nowhere?
Turkey have already qualified for Euro 2024, however, Wales, Croatia and Armenia are still contenders for second place.
Armenia, who are currently three points behind their competitors, will take on both Wales and Croatia. Wales have the head-to-head advantage over Croatia, however, they have tougher fixtures remaining, travelling to Armenia and hosting Turkey. Croatia have the more favourable fixtures, visiting Latvia and playing Armenia at home. Should the Croats win both of their games, they will likely qualify, unless Wales pull off something spectacular against strong opposition. All of the games involving the three teams are of significant importance, with Armenia’s clashes with Wales and Croatia standing out.
Group E: Minnows in with a chance
Group E remains wide open, with Albania, Czech Republic, Poland and Moldova all still able to qualify.
Albania are favourites to top the group, currently leading by two points. Sylvinho’s side will qualify with a win against either Moldova or Faroe Islands, with the latter having only picked up one point from seven games. Should either of Czech Republic or Moldova win both of their games, they will qualify. Poland are the only side of the four with only one game left, therefore, they will have to beat Czech Republic to stand any chance of qualifying. Three key fixtures in this group are: Moldova v Albania, Poland v Czech Republic, and Czech Republic v Moldova.
Group F: Only battle for top spot remaining
Both Belgium and Austria have sealed qualification, with Sweden, Azerbaijan and Estonia missing out. The positions of the top two are still undecided, however, both teams are favourites in their remaining fixtures, with Belgium facing Azerbaijan and Austria visiting Estonia. Therefore, current leaders Belgium should finish top.
Group G: Montenegro need a miracle
Both Hungary and Serbia are within touching distance of qualification, with Montenegro being the only other team with any chance.
Hungary will need to pick up a single point from their games against Bulgaria and Montenegro, two games in which they will be favourites, to seal qualification. Serbia will need to pick up a point from their game against last-placed Bulgaria, which should be straightforward. Not only will Montenegro need to win both of their games, but they will also be relying on other results to go in their favour. Montenegro’s visit to Hungary could be one to watch is there is something to play in the final round of fixtures.
Group H: A first major tournament still possible for Kazakhstan
Any of Slovenia, Denmark and Kazakhstan could qualify from this group.
Both Slovenia and Denmark need to pick up three points from their remaining two games. Qualifying will not be straightforward for Kazakhstan, however, they will expect to beat San Marino, which will leave them with a vital clash against Slovenia. Slovenia will qualify should they pick up at least a point from that encounter. Key fixtures remaining in Group H are Slovenia’s clashes with Kazakhstan and Denmark.
Group I: Israel have it all to do
Romania, Switzerland and Israel are all battling for qualification, with some teams still having three games left to play.
Israel will face both Switzerland and Romania, games they must win to improve their chances of qualification. Romania need to pick up two points from their remaining games, and Switzerland will need a maximum of six points from a possible nine to guarantee qualification. Israel’s clashes against Switzerland and Romania will have huge repercussions on the state of play.
Group J: Could Slovakian collapse facilitate Luxembourg fairytale?
Portugal have secured top spot in Group J, winning all of their eight fixtures. Slovakia only need one point from their last two games against Iceland and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as they have a superior head-to-head record over Luxembourg. Luxembourg will need to win both of their games, and are relying on Slovakia losing both of theirs. This group could be wrapped up when Slovakia host Iceland.
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