The opportunity to back Legia Warsaw to beat Banik Ostrava is not one to miss, at what looks to be an incredibly generous price.

It remains a mystery why Banik Ostrava are judged to be the favourites here, particularly given that UEFA rank them as Europe’s 168th best team, compared to the visitors who are ranked 70th.

Legia Warsaw made deep inroads into the UECL last season, only losing to eventual winners Chelsea, despite beating them at Stamford Bridge. The Polish outfit have picked up where they left off last season, and enter this clash in the midst of a four-game winning streak.

By contrast, Banik Ostrava failed to make a dent in Europe, seeing themselves knocked out by Copenhagen in the UECL qualifiers. Last season offered little joy for Banik Ostrava, as they finished third in the league - 19 points behind eventual champions Slavia Praha.

This campaign hasn’t started much better, with a defeat to Bohemians 1905, who placed 10th out of 16 last season. Including friendlies, their last five outings have yielded just one win, alongside two draws and two defeats.

Given that neither Sheriff nor Utrecht’s matches typically produce an abundance of goals, backing the net to ripple on fewer than four occasions looks a standout option in the market.

Thursday's hosts, Sheriff, were in action on Sunday as they played out a 0-0 stalemate in the Moldovan Premier League, dropping points for the first time this season. They brought this selection home in two-thirds of their league clashes last year, and perhaps more significantly, all six of their European tests.

Utrecht’s league matches averaged 3.15 goals scored, affording this selection a fair degree of leeway. With the 25/26 edition of the Eredivisie yet to commence, we are forced to rely on friendlies to form a more contemporary outlook. Back-to-back 2-1 losses on Friday and Saturday serve to reassure us of the value on offer here.

Operating in the Slovenian PrvaLiga, NK Celje have built a reputation for producing exhilarating, high-scoring affairs, with their league clashes from last season averaging a remarkable 3.53 goals per match. This line landed in 69% of those games, including 83% of those at the Stadion Z'dežele, where this Europa League showdown will unfold. 

Their opening Qualifying Matches were encouraging to say the least, with NK Celje producing a 3-2 away win, and a 3-3 draw at home. Their league opener followed suit as Thursday's hosts claimed a 2-1 victory.

Their opponents, AEK Larnaca, have played five matches since last season's conclusion, with all but one producing three or more goals (18 in total). This represents a sizeable improvement from their previous campaign, where their league matches averaged a modest 2.56. Still, their offensive summer signings and aggressive start to the season imply this is likely to be sustained.

I’m always one to look out for a home-away discrepancy, and it looks to me like the bookies have slipped up here. Having finished fourth in the Swiss Super League last season, Lugano were let down by their away form, which yielded a PPG of just 1.16, compared to the 1.68 they managed at home.

Similarly, their opponents, CFR Cluj, managed no more than six wins across their 20 away matches, with their PPG dropping from 2.05 at home to 1.45 on the road.

In more recent times, Lugano have won all three of their matches during the break, and look to be playing with confidence, albeit in friendlies. Last season, a win and two draws from their four Europa League appearances did not suffice to prevent them from dropping into the Conference League, where they progressed to the Round of 16, recording five wins, a draw, and two losses.

CFR Cluj lack this level of European pedigree, most recently failing to make it through the UECL qualification stage as they bowed out to Pafos FC in the Play-offs. Domestically, they finished 2nd in the Romanian SuperLiga, and I don’t expect them to cause Lugano too much trouble.