Without their eight-point penalty, Everton would sit comfortably in 14th, a side safe from danger. They may only be a draw better off than Forest in the standings, but in reality they have been five points stronger than them this season. To some extent, then, the league table is lying.

Dyche’s problems are twofold, though. Firstly, Everton have not played well in what will be their final full season at Goodison Park. They have won only four of 15 games at the historic venue, scoring just 16 times in the process.

On top of this, morale has likely been crushed by the nature of their defeat to Chelsea on Monday. The Toffees were pitiful in that match.

Conversely, it should be flagged that of the five defeats they have suffered in the Premier League in 2024, four have come against top-half opponents.

Indeed, Everton’s record against the bottom half is not bad over that time, with one win, two draws and a defeat at in-form Bournemouth.

Their guests on Saturday, meanwhile, are showing some resilience. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are on a six-match winless run on the road in the Premier League since winning at Newcastle on Boxing Day but they have lost only one of their last five.

Forest’s run of matches, though, has been considerably easier than that of their opponents. They have faced only one team in the top half in this period.

This is a tough match to call, with Everton little value at 2 given their tribulations this week. A draw looks like a very possible outcome at 3.5, while the guests can be backed at 1.73 with a +1 handicap to avoid defeat. This would have been a winning bet in their last five games against opponents in the bottom half.

As for the goals market, Everton have only scored more than one in a Premier League game once since December 23, a run of 15 matches. Forest, meanwhile, have scored in 14 of their last 16 but have kept only one clean sheet in 22. Both teams to score at 1.6, therefore, should be a strong bet.

Nottingham Forest are the team with the more pronounced threats coming into this game, with striker Chris Wood boasting 12 Premier League goals for the season. The New Zealander has been in good form, too, scoring in four successive outings before being shut out by Wolves last weekend.

With 1.12 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season, the ex-Burnley and Newcastle forward should be backed at 1.62 to get a shot on target here.

The other threat the Forest possess who is worth flagging is no surprise: Morgan Gibbs-White. The attacking midfielder has been linked with a string of major clubs in recent weeks after scoring two in his last three.

Overall this season, he has not been prolific at getting shots on target, averaging just 0.4 per 90. This has seen a sharp upward trend in recent weeks, though. He worked the opposing keeper just three times up until Boxing Day this season but has managed four shots on target in his last six. He is priced at 2 to get a shot on target here.

It’s worth noting Gibbs-White has not managed multiple shots on target in a Premier League game this season. With a goal or an assists in four of his last five, though, backing him to make a decisive contribution against a depleted Everton defence at 3 is worth consideration.

Everton, meanwhile, only boast two players who have five or more Premier League goals this season and one of those, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, is doubtful. Top scorer Abdoulaye Doucoure, who has six goals, is 3.75 to net anytime and offers arguably the best value of any Toffee to hit the target in this game at 1.73 to muster one shot on goal.

If Calvert-Lewin does not start, Beto can be backed to record a high shot count. The striker attempts a club-leading 4.12 shots per 90 but his issue is that he is wayward with the vast majority of these.

There is value in backing James Tarkowski and Morgan Gibbs-White to see yellow. Both are likely to play the majority of the game, while they have each been booked nine times in the Premier League this term. The Forest player looks especially overpriced at 4.5 while the twice-capped England international is 4.

Ryan Yates, meanwhile, is likely to be winning free kicks for the City Ground outfit. He has earned at least two fouls in six of his last eight Premier League matches. He is 1.53 to win two or more free kicks.

Yates may also be a major offender. With 2.53 fouls per 90, no one else on the field will have a record like this. He tends to give away these fouls in 4s and 5s rather than in a steady manner. Backing him with three or more fouls at 2.4 is the way to go here.