🕵️ Lewis Hall to be Fouled 1+ Times (Newcastle v Leicester)
🕵️ Will Hughes to Commit 2+ Fouls (Brighton v Crystal Palace)
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🔎 DB Spots Trends’ Weekend Best Bets
Newcastle v Leicester
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Kick Off: Saturday 14th December at 15:00
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Competition: Premier League
Lewis Hall has established himself as the starting left back under Eddie Howe, and has subsequently started each of the last 10 games. In that time, he has drawn 9 fouls, landing this bet in 7 matches.
He is averaging an unremarkable 0.66 fouls drawn per 90 this season, but that rises significantly when playing at St James’ Park, as the fullback has been fouled in each of his last 6 starts. His average rises to 1.12 fouls drawn per 90 when playing at home.
In fact, the only team who failed to foul Hall were Southampton in Gameweek 1, with that game heavily influenced by an early red card for Newcastle – the Magpies had just 22% possession.
Leicester have played two games under the management of Ruud van Nistelrooy, and in both games the opposing left back drew at least one foul. Aaron Wan-Bissaka was fouled twice, before Pervis Estupinan most recently drew 1 foul.
PaddyPower have based this price off Halls’ season averages, but his home/away splits display a notable contrast. In a solid matchup against Leicester, this is a market to target.
Brighton v Crystal Palace
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Kick Off: Sunday 15th December at 14:00
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Competition: Premier League
The Amex Stadium hosts the M23 derby on Sunday afternoon, as Crystal Palace will be looking to build on a 4-game unbeaten run. However, they lost 4-1 in this fixture last season, and have failed to win each of the last 6 head-to-head matchups.
Will Hughes made 2 fouls in that previous outing at the Amex, and 2 fouls again in the reverse fixture at home despite being substituted after 59 minutes.
Playing in midfield, Hughes will have the tough task of trying to contain the likes of Joao Pedro (2.13 fouls drawn per 90), Georginio Rutter (2.18 fouls drawn per 90) and Danny Welbeck (1.08 fouls drawn per 90).
Hughes is averaging 2.3 fouls per 90 in the Eagles’ midfield, which is the highest in the squad. However, that rises even further to 2.97 fouls per 90 when filtering to away games only. He has landed this bet in 6 out of 7 matches on the road this season in all competitions.
The data looks fantastic here, and the matchup here against Brighton is an optimal one to target fouls.
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