In this article…
FA Cup Final: Manchester City v Manchester United
🏆
Competition: FA Cup Final
⏰
Kick off: 15:00
📺
Watch live: BBC One & ITV
As we all know, the FA Cup is a football institution. The most historic of all football competitions in the world, and yet, Saturday sees something totally new in this competition. The 142nd FA Cup will be contested between the two major Manchester clubs, City and United, for the very first time.
It is very unusual to have a local derby in a final. Indeed, in recent years, it is very unusual to have a final without Chelsea in it, five of the last six have been contested by the London club. Saturday’s finalists are amongst the most successful in FA Cup history as well though.
Manchester United have won the FA Cup on twelve occasions, second only to Arsenal in the history of the competition. Manchester City are equal eighth with Newcastle and Blackburn Rovers on six victories. Obviously, this will be Erik ten Hag’s first FA Cup Final as it is his first season in English football, but, relatively surprisingly given his massive success with Manchester City, this is only Pep Guardiola’s second FA Cup final.
A lot of discourse around the game will come around the possible treble for City. History doesn’t tell us a great deal about how this may affect them as only Man Utd’s 1999 treble is relevant. In their FA Cup Final, that Man Utd side took an early lead vs Newcastle, and that made it fairly easy sailing.
There are lots of trends and data from FA Cup Finals and Manchester derbies past that are relevant though. Those trends lead us to some great informed picks for potential betting angles for the final, and paired with some intriguing offers from partner bookmakers there is real potential for profitable betting angles ahead of this match.
To make it even better, we are offering readers TWO bet builders ranging in odds to make this historical clash even more enticing for those wanting to take part.
🏆
ABC’s 45/1 bet builder
🏆
ABC’s 5/2 bet builder
We’re backing our 45/1 bet builder on Paddy Power to take advantage of the sign up offer below. Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on the FA Cup final Bet Builder to maximise the value for this offer available ONLY to new customers.
FA Cup Final Cheat Sheet
🏆 ABC’s 45/1 FA Cup Final bet builder
We’ll be backing this high-odds Manchester derby bet builder on Paddy Power, where all of you can take advantage of the free bet builder Paddy Power are offering existing customers for today’s FA Cup Final.
⚽ Bruno Fernandes to score or assist
📈
Odds: 3.40
Erik Ten Hag has conjured up some strong performances against Manchester City, their 2-1 win over the Cityzens in their last league meeting and while they lost in the first meeting, United did still score 3 in a 6-3 loss. United sat deep in the 2-1 win, allowing Manchester City 70% possession at Old Trafford and hardly coming out and pressing, instead focusing on holding their shape and hitting City on the counter.
This tactic works perfectly for Bruno Fernandes, his link-up play is vital to Manchester United scoring goals in this tactic. Fernandes has accumulated 10.7xA in the Premier League this season which is only bettered by De Bruyne and Trippier and has the second most goals in United’s squad. Bruno Fernandes got a goal in the last meeting between the teams and if United are to score here then Fernandes will likely be involved.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🟨 Rodri to be shown a card
📈
Odds: 4.50
Paul Tierney is the referee for this match, Tierney has averaged 3.83 cards per 90 this season and gave out 3 yellow cards in the last cup final he refereed, the 2021 EFL Cup Final between Manchester City and Tottenham. In that match, he gave 2 cards out to Manchester City. Manchester City have played in 6 cup finals under Pep Guardiola and the starting defensive midfielder for Pep’s team has been booked in 5 of them, only failing to do so against Watford when they comfortably won 6-0.
Rodri averages 1.46 fouls per 90, the highest of any Manchester City player in their starting eleven. Rodri has had 5 yellow cards this season, the most of any City player, and will be up against Bruno Fernandes who draws 1.06 fouls per 90.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Marcus Rashford to have 1+ shot on target
📈
Odds: 1.67
Marcus Rashford has been Manchester United’s standout player this season, he has scored 17 goals in the league this season and averages 1.53 shots on target per 90. Ten Hag has really learned how to get the best out of Rashford and his form post-World Cup has been phenomenal.
A Rashford shot on target has landed in 14 of his last 16 matches and in 13 of his last 14 starts. Ten Hag made sure United exploited the space in behind Manchester City when the teams met last time and Rashford was a key part of this, he had 2 shots on target and scored a goal. Rashford is also often on free kicks, he has more shots from free kicks this season than any other Manchester United player this season, in a tight match between the two teams it could be a set-piece situation that decides the match and Rashford will back himself to test the keeper from a free kick.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚀 Jack Grealish to have 3+ shots
📈
Odds: 2.0
When Manchester United are pushed back, opposition wingers get a lot of opportunities to cut in and shoot. In their last 4 matches where they have had less than 45% possession, the opposition winger has had at least 3 shots 3 of the 4 times. Grealish averages 1.8 shots per 90 but came on and scored the last time the teams played. Grealish has had at least 3 shots in matches against Liverpool, Fulham, Southampton, and West Ham.
Despite how good Aaron Wan-Bissaka is defensively, in matches he has started against the ‘big six’ and Brighton, the opposition left winger has had at least 3 shots in all but the last game between the teams. Since they last played, Manchester City have changed to the 3-2-4-1 system Guardiola now prefers and Grealish gets far more shooting opportunities.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
Form of past FA Cup Finals
🏆 ABC’s 5/2 FA Cup Final bet builder
For those wanting to have a more cautious approach, we also are supplying readers with this 5/2 FA Cup Final bet builder which will increase your chances of leaving the day in profit.
🏆 Manchester City to win
📈
Odds: 1.50
Apart from a meaningless final day defeat, City are unbeaten since the start of February, just shy of 4 months ago. Pep Guardiola altered his philosophies halfway through the season, deploying a more flexible structure to free up the likes of Jack Grealish and John Stones who have shone this season. City have scored 13 in their last 4 v United which will have the likes of Haaland licking their lips.
Although United got one over on their rivals at Old Trafford this season, they have the second-best home record in the league and have fared horridly away from the Theatre of Dreams. You only have to look back to the 20th of April to see their demise in Sevilla and how they struggle away from Old Trafford.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
⚽ Over 2.5 goals
📈
Odds: 1.60
The past ten FA Cup finals, the further we go back the less relevant the data given the progress that the sport has made, have seen an average of 2.5 goals per game. This is perhaps a higher average than expected, but this is skewed somewhat by a couple of finals such as Man City thrashing Watford 6-0 in 2019. There were two other four-goal finals in 2014 and 2015 as well.
Recent affairs have been very cagey, none more so than last year’s goalless affair between Liverpool and Chelsea. However, this is the only goalless draw in the cohort, the first since 2004/5.
Exactly half of the finals went over 2.5 goals, 40% had both teams scoring in them. The cageyness of the match-up can sometimes depend on the match-up of the teams themselves rather than just the occasion, and Wembley Stadium.
With this being a Manchester derby as well, some research was conducted into the last ten Manchester derbies across all competitions. The derbies averaged three goals per game, so higher than the usual FA Cup final. Again, the recent 6-3 to Man City skews this somewhat. In reality, only four matches in the last ten went over 2.5 goals, with the same four seeing BTTS land.
Since Solskjaer’s departure though it is interesting to see that the number of goals in the fixture has really shot up. Whether this is the case of a small sample size or not, it is too early to tell. However, certainly, if this was a league fixture one would fancy the potential of goals here.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🟨 Under 3.5 cards
📈
Odds: 2.0
Cards are an intriguing angle here as well. The trends of the FA Cup final have changed in recent years. Only one final in the last five have seen over 3.5 cards, whereas the previous five all went over that mark.
The Manchester derby has been through a similar arc of cards. From being a fixture that saw a lot of cards, six of the last seven have gone under 3.5 cards. Manchester City haven’t received a card at all in four of the last five derbies. United have received more cards than City in 6 of the last 10 derbies.
Taking all of the trends and research into account there is a really interesting value bet with Paddy Power.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
Back either of the FA Cup Final bet builders below ⬇️
Back the 45/1 FA Cup Final bet builder on Paddy Power
Back the 5/2 FA Cup Final bet builder on Paddy Power
Haven’t got a Paddy Power account? You’re in luck…
Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on the 45/1 FA Cup Final bet builder. Here are the two possible outcomes:
✅
You win £1,386 cash if it wins
🔄
Or you get your £30 stake back as cash
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.