Finland v Netherlands

With four points to their name already, Finland host the Netherlands in an important clash in Group G. The sides are joined by Poland, Lithuania, and Malta in the group, with Poland currently leading the way, having won both of their opening two games.

Netherlands, who are yet to play their first game, are heavy favourites to top the group, with the bookies pricing them at 1.40 to do so.

For Finland, the primary objective is likely to be a top-two finish, which would give them a route into the latter stages of the competition. However, that already looks like a tough task, particularly after dropping points in a frustrating result against Lithuania.

They’re likely to be contending alongside current leaders, Poland, for second position, and at 3.50, they certainly aren’t without a chance.

⭐ Finland v Netherlands Predictions and Best Bets

Over 2.5 goals looks like a very likely outcome given the records of both teams, and undoubtedly represents value at 1.65. 12 of Finland’s previous 16 games have seen the net ripple at least three times, as have 15 of the Netherlands’ most recent 19.  Both sides were involved in entertaining, high-scoring draws last time out; Finland were held to a 2-2 stalemate in Lithuania, whilst the Netherlands and Spain scored three apiece in the Nations League (3-3).

Of those three goals, it would undoubtedly be a surprise if the Netherlands didn’t manage at least two, given their free-flowing attacking style. They’ve found the back of the net on at least two occasions in eight of their last 12 matches, with Germany and England accounting for half of those anomalies.

Only Malta and Ireland have failed to breach the Finnish backline 2+ times across their last 10, with the likes of Lithuania, Greece, Ireland and Scotland all managing it over the period.

⚪ Finland Aim to Steady Ship After Dismal Run

Finland have had a torrid time in recent matches, recording just a single victory across their last 10.

The level of opposition provides little excuse for what was a truly dismal Nations League campaign. Finishing rock bottom of their group with 0 points, they endured six straight defeats - a run that exposed serious deficiencies in both performance and resilience.

While facing England, Ireland, and Greece is no easy task, the manner of the losses offered little encouragement. They were beaten home and away by each of those sides, often without posing much threat themselves. 

That said, they’ve got their World Cup Qualifiers off to a decent start, with four points to their name after the opening two matches. This could be interpreted as an upturn in form, should you forgive them for dropping points in Lithuania, but they’re yet to face a test as challenging as this.

Things aren’t getting much easier for Jacob Friis’ men, who will face off with Poland and then Norway in the aftermath of this clash, albeit the latter in a friendly.

🟠 Draws Plague Netherlands Amid Resurgent Era

The Netherlands have come a long way over the last couple of years, incrementally re-establishing themselves as a dominant force once again.

Under Ronald Koeman, they’ve built back both confidence and consistency, and their recent record reflects that resurgence, having avoided defeat in 17 of their last 21 matches. 

However, despite the encouraging overall trajectory, an influx of draws in recent matches is beginning to undermine the progress they’ve made. Five of the Netherlands’ last seven have produced draws, with a narrow 1-0 defeat at the hands of Germany an exception, alongside a dominant 4-0 victory over Hungary.

While it’s certainly not the be-all and end-all for Koeman’s men, given that the majority of those draws have come against Europe’s elite, it does raise questions over their ability to get across the line.

Back-to-back draws with the European champions, Spain, don’t paint an awful picture, but when viewed alongside more pedestrian draws with Bosnia and Hungary, there’s a sense that Koeman’s men are occasionally failing to impose themselves against sides they’d be expected to beat.

📊 Finland v Netherlands Head-to-Head Key Stats

Unfortunately, we haven’t been treated to a clash between these sides since 2011, when Finland met the Netherlands in the Euros qualifiers.

The Netherlands won both matches, delivering fairly dominant displays both home and away, although it would be unwise to extrapolate too much from that, given how much time has elapsed in between.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.