Gem Bet: Flamengo v Chelsea
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Reece James to have 1+ Shots v Flamengo @ 1.61 (bet365)
- Flamengo v Chelsea
- FIFA Club World Cup
A £10 bet on this bet builder returns £16.15 if it wins.
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Reece James to register 1+ shots against Flamengo on Friday night is generously priced at 1.61 with bet365, with odds as low as 1.14 with both Paddy Power and Betfair, and 1.20 with SkyBet. When contextualised with Chelsea’s tactical approach under Enzo Maresca, the value becomes even more evident.
James’s shot profile this season (which includes the last game against LA) points to consistent output:
Averaging 1.04 shots per 90 minutes
Recorded at least one shot in four of his last five appearances
Has hit 1+ shot in nine of his last 11 matches when playing at least 44 minutes
These numbers alone make a strong case, but the positional evolution under Maresca makes the angle even stronger. Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea have embraced a system defined by positional rotation, full-back inversion, and central overloads. This shift has transformed James from a traditional wing-back into a more centralised facilitator and situational shooter.
Often tucking into midfield in possession, or at times even deployed as a defensive midfielder (particularly in European competition), James finds himself in more dangerous central zones, leading to higher-quality shooting opportunities. His role on set-pieces and deep free kicks further supports his shot potential, even from long range.
In the UEFA Conference League, where James was frequently used in midfield:
He averaged 1.32 shots per 90
Had a shot in five of his six appearances (when playing more than 11 minutes)
This output aligns with his role transformation and enhances the argument that his shooting volume isn’t just situational, it’s systemic.
Whether starting at right-back, as expected on Friday night, or in midfield, James’ evolved role under Maresca has led to consistent shot output. Given his average, tactical context, and role in set-pieces, bet365’s 1.61 pricing looks like clear value here.
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