This angle is mainly predicated on Spain’s record of fouls across the course of the tournament so far.

They have the 4th highest average foul count in the tournament at 13.8, which means that even a repeat of their mean foul count should see this bet collect back the initial outlay.

It is an obvious thing to say but finals are tense and nervy affairs in most cases. This can obviously manifest itself in a higher number of fouls than usual, with no team wanting to give an inch to their opponents, and no team wanting to risk a goal being conceded because of how important goals tend to be in finals, particularly because of the low-scoring nature of finals.

There were 34 fouls conceded in the Euro 2020 final, albeit that was over 120 minutes, and Italy conceded 21 of those to England’s 13. So there is a recent precedent for England to have been heavily fouled in a Euros final.

Spain’s last Euros final was in 2012 and going back to that final they managed to concede 16 fouls. This is despite winning the final 4-0 and being 1-0 up after 14 minutes and 2-0 by half-time. Tactical fouling to preserve a lead was probably in play in this final, but there is no reason to believe that this wouldn’t be a possibility again in this final if Spain do snatch a lead at any stage.

Spain beat the 13 fouls line in each of their group stage matches, conceding 14 against Croatia, 17 against Italy, and 15 against Albania. They also conceded 14 against Germany in regulation time in their quarter-final so this is a line that would’ve delivered profit in four of Spain’s six matches at the tournament.

England were fouled 18 times in their opening match against Serbia, who deployed man-to-man tactics against them in the second half. They also were fouled 15 times by Slovakia in regulation time in the round of 16, so there is also some precedent for England to draw a lot of fouls in certain matches, which could lead to good ladder bet profits on higher lines.