France have enough quality to win this tie, and I think they’ll do so comfortably with the attacking options they have on the pitch against a Swedish backline that I really don’t trust.

We saw France take apart a second string Norway side last time out, scoring three goals in the first half in an eventual 4-1 victory for Didier Deschamps’ side. They looked really confident in the final third with Mbappe and Dembele linking up particularly well, which is a balance many questioned before the tournament started.

France won all three of their group matches and look like the most complete side at the World Cup so far. They’ve scored 3+ goals in all of these matches, and I don’t think Sweden will be able to live with that level of firepower.

Sweden have been pretty good when it comes to getting shots and shots on target away, but like with all of Graham Potter’s sides, they struggle to convert these chances.

This has been an issue for Graham Potter since his time at Swansea. He often constructs teams that are really good between the boxes, but lack the cutting edge to put away chances or keep sides out of their own goal.

Mike Maignan is a very solid keeper and has had to make five saves at the World Cup so far (1.67 per 90), with a save percentage of 71.4%. Sweden have averaged 6.70 shots on target per game so far; only four sides have found the target more often than Graham Potter’s side.

Kylian Mbappe comes alive at the World Cup, and this tournament has been no different, with the striker scoring four goals and registering two assists across just three starts.

He’ll have his eye on another Golden Boot after clinching the accolade back in 2022 as France battled to the final in Qatar. He’s taken 16 shots at the World Cup so far (5.41 per 90), seeing nine of these efforts find the target (3.05 per 90).

France look really balanced in forward areas at the moment, with the front four of Olise, Doue, Dembele, and Mbappe complementing each other really well. Mbappe should be full of confidence again here and will get chances against a Sweden backline that is far from secure and has conceded in all three of their games so far.

Sweden may be vulnerable at the back, but they have the individual quality to pose a threat in forward areas - namely through Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak, who can both be dangerous even with limited service.

Gyokeres has taken 11 shots across his three starts at the World Cup so far (3.67 per 90), finding the back of the net once with these efforts. He’s seen five of these attempts find the target (1.67 per 90). He scored four goals across six starts for Sweden during qualifying, maintaining an average of exactly 1.00 shots on target per 90.

Gyokeres is the type of striker who will relish an individual battle with Upamecano and his centre-back partner, and actually tends to be at his best when he’s playing for a side that will feed him down the channels when Sweden can get the ball forward in transition.

Upamecano has been pretty solid for France at the back so far, but I still think he has a mistake in him and will have to be alert to the threat of Sweden’s front two, as well as Anthony Elanga, who can be a real asset to Graham Potter’s side in transition.

Upamecano has committed three fouls across his three starts at the World Cup so far, committing one in each game. His main battle here will be with Viktor Gyokeres, who has been fouled three times across his three matches so far, and maintained an average of 1.33 fouls won per 90 for Sweden during qualifying. 

Upamecano wasn’t really tested during qualifying, with France having a relatively kind qualifying group, but did average 0.75 fouls committed per 90 across his 21 starts for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga during the 25/26 campaign

Michael Olise has registered the joint-most assists at the World Cup so far, setting up three goals from seven chances created (2.83 per 90).

It’s clear that Deschamps wants Olise in more of a creative role. Dembele and Mbappe are the two main finishers in the side, with Olise operating in a more central role compared to the wider role he plays for Bayern Munich, where he’s much more of a shot threat cutting in on his left foot.

Olise created 22 chances across just five starts for France during qualifying (4.64 per 90) and was very unlucky not to register an assist. He registered 28 assists for Bayern Munich across the 25/26 campaign, his highest ever tally in a single season as a professional footballer.

Alexander Isak had a really tough season, mainly due to injuries, but now looks to be building back towards the player we saw for large spells of his time at Newcastle.

He’s scored one goal at the World Cup so far from six shots (2.01 per 90), being pretty clinical with these efforts as five have found the target (1.67 per 90). He managed 11 shots across just 226 minutes of action during qualifying (4.38 per 90), seeing five of these efforts find the target (1.99 per 90). 

I think Sweden will get chances in transition here. Only four sides have had more shots on target than Graham Potter’s side at the World Cup so far, and that tally is mainly down to the effectiveness of Gyokeres and Isak as Sweden’s front pairing.

Yasin Ayari is a really talented player, and I think he will eventually earn a move to a top side as another product of the never-ending conveyor belt of talent that comes through at Brighton.

He can be a bit overly aggressive with his challenges and has already collected a card at the World Cup, with that caution coming against Japan. He collected one card across his seven starts in qualifying, and also averaged 2.15 fouls committed per 90 across those matches.

He’ll be up against Olise here, who is now operating more centrally for France. Olise has won five fouls across his three starts at the World Cup (2.02 per 90), and this is a consistent part of his game, having won 11 fouls across five starts in qualifying (2.32 per 90).

I took this angle when France lined up against Senegal in their opening game of the World Cup, and it landed on that occasion with Upamecano being up against Nicolas Jackson.

I think Upamecano has another favourable opponent for him to win a foul here, with the centre back likely to be in a real tussle with Viktor Gyokeres, who has committed four fouls across his three starts at the World Cup so far, and is as short as 1.33 to commit a foul in this contest.

Upamecano does have a mistake in him; on the whole, he’s a solid centre back, but Gyokeres and Isak will be aware that he can flounder under pressure, and they may overstep the mark at times when trying to force a mistake from the Bayern Munich centre back.