Espanyol v Real Betis

The first match of this La Liga weekend is a particularly interesting one as Espanyol host third-placed Real Betis. After they demolished Alavés 4-0 in midweek, Real Betis hit all the headlines and received due praise, but there have been several cases already this season of Manuel Pellegrini’s side suffering a fall immediately after the hype of a big win.

After they thrashed Valencia 4-1, that was immediately followed by a dismal performance in a 3-0 loss to Atlético Madrid. After they won 1-0 away at Barcelona, it was a 3-2 loss at Celtic a few days later in the Europa League – even if they didn’t play their strongest XI. After thrashing Real Sociedad 4-0 in December, they then required extra time to defeat third-tier Talavera in the cup that midweek before losing 3-2 at out-of-form Athletic Club the following weekend. In other words, be wary of the Real Betis hype.

And be especially wary when Real Betis are visiting Espanyol, one of the strongest home teams in the division. Although Espanyol lost their past home game 2-1 to Elche, they did not deserve to lose that match. Remember that, before the Elche loss, they had won six and drawn one of their previous seven home fixtures, drawing with Athletic Club and getting the better of Alavés, Real Madrid, Cádiz, Granada, Real Sociedad and Levante.

Espanyol are a serious challenge when they play at home and Real Betis are being built up just a little too much after one big win. That’s why there is great value on the Espanyol or draw double chance.

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Levante v Cádiz

Betting on over 2.5 goals in Cádiz matches has not been a particularly fruitful endeavour this season. It has only happened in 38% of their matches, with only six LaLiga teams having a lower percentage of their matches produce at least three goals. But, in the case of Cádiz, this seems set to change.

Having changed coaches as they look to escape the relegation zone, Cádiz already look like a different team. Whether they’re actually better or not under new boss Sergio González remains to be seen, but they’re certainly more attack-minded and ambitious than they were under his defensive-minded predecessor Álvaro Cervera. With Cervera, they had the lowest possession in LaLiga by far with an average of 35% as they sat as close to their own goalline as possible. In two matches with Sergio – admittedly a tiny sample size – their possession has already been boosted to 46%.

Looking at Cádiz’s 2-2 draw against Espanyol on Tuesday, the Yellows went for it and had two disallowed goals in addition to the two that they scored. It really does seem that we’ll see a more attacking Cádiz in the second half of the season, partly because of the change in coach and partly because their dire situation requires three-point hauls, not draws.

This weekend it’s a six-pointer for second-bottom Cádiz as they visit rock-bottom Levante. The Granotas went through a similar change a few weeks ago when switching to their third coach of the season in Alessio Lisci, becoming more ambitious and losing a couple of games in a row 4-3. Then, last time out, Levante finally secured their first victory of the season by defeating Real Mallorca 2-0.

These two teams go head to head this weekend and they both know that a draw is virtually no use. This is a must-win game and their approaches to the match should reflect this, especially with both outfits now more attacking under their new coaches.

It was 1-1 when they met on opening weekend. But, these are two very different teams now and we could see many more goals than that this Saturday lunchtime.

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Villarreal v Real Mallorca

Villarreal and Real Mallorca are two of the few Spanish teams that didn’t have a midweek game this week, so they come into this weekend’s clash fully rested and raring to go. In the case of Villarreal, they’ll be extra motivated for the ball to get rolling as they look to correct what was a very disappointing loss at Elche last time out.

With Villarreal, they’ve been suffering from multiple absences over the past couple of weeks, as they’ve suffered injuries, COVID-19 and have had more players away at AFCON than any other LaLiga side. But, they’re gradually welcoming some players back and will relish this home game against a Real Mallorca side that are poor on the road.

If Villarreal can click, this could be a big win for them. Before drawing 2-2 with Atlético Madrid in their past home game, they had won 5-0 vs Levante, 5-2 vs Alavés and 2-0 vs Rayo Vallecano. Real Mallorca, meanwhile, have been poor on the road apart from their shock 2-1 win at Atlético in December. Apart from that victory, the other three of their past four away trips in LaLiga have been a 2-0 loss at Levante, 4-1 loss at Granada and 3-1 loss at Rayo Vallecano.

It certainly wouldn’t surprise anybody for Villarreal to put a big win together on Saturday afternoon and for Real Mallorca to fly back to the island after another heavy road loss.

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Sevilla v Celta Vigo

After suffering a setback to their title challenge in midweek by drawing at Valencia, Sevilla return home this weekend to host Celta Vigo. Their dropping of points in midweek can partly be explained by the numerous player absences they had as they travelled to Valencia and the absence of coach Julen Lopetegui, who wasn’t feeling well. But, he and many other players should be available again this weekend as Sevilla look to get back on track.

Home advantage has been particularly important for Sevilla this season as they have won eight and drawn two of their 10 league games at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan. While Celta Vigo are one of the stronger away sides in the league, with the fourth-best away record, Sevilla have to be considered big favourites here in front of a crowd that knows their team needs support after what has been a tough week, with the Valencia draw and the controversial Copa del Rey elimination in last weekend’s abandoned-and-then-restarted derby.

Sevilla will look to dominate the ball as they usually do and little by little open up a Celta Vigo side that tends to struggle against possession-based teams like Sevilla. That’s what happened earlier in the season, as Sevilla won the possession battle and ground out a 1-0 win in Galicia.

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Atlético Madrid vs Valencia

The blockbuster game of Saturday sees two giants of Spanish football go up against each other in Atlético Madrid and Valencia, even though they come into this round fourth and ninth in the table respectively.

Both sides have disappointed this season and the main reason for their struggles has been the defence. Even though the coaches Diego Simeone and José Bordalás have historically been known for stingy defences, it is not at all coming off for them this term. Valencia have the fourth-leakiest defence in LaLiga with 33 goals conceded in 21 games, while Atleti have the 10th-worst with 24 let in over 20 games. Considering both teams have significant defensive absences for this weekend’s match, such as the injury to goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen and suspension of left-back José Gayà for Valencia or the suspension of in-form defensive midfielder Geoffrey Kondogbia for Atlético Madrid, we shouldn’t expect any magical defensive improvement in time for Saturday night.

Both these sides are still managing to score goals, though, and are joint-third in the goals scored category, with 33 netted each. Their potent attacks and woeful defences combine, therefore, to make Atlético and Valencia two of the highest teams in the total match goals rankings, with Valencia at the very top with an average of 3.14 goals in the matches they’ve been involved in this season, while Atleti are fifth with an average of 2.85. With odds of 1.91 for over 2.5 total goals on Saturday night, there is value to be had while watching these two self-destructive defences.

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