Kylian Mbappe to score 15 or more goals in the Champions League at 8.50, considering the new format, looks like a strong value longshot to cheer on over the course of the competition.

In those odds, bet365 are saying that there is an 11.8% chance that he finds the net 15 times or more, and we see the probability as comfortably higher than that.

Injury issues will be out of our control, but there is a lot going for this bet. The new format means that Los Blancos will play eight games in the league phase (should they finish in the top eight, more if they finish 9th to 16th), and then a more traditional Champions League knockout stage begins from the round of 16.

If Real progress in the top eight in the league phase and go on to exit the competition at the quarter-final stage, they will play 12 matches altogether, go out in the semis – and they’ll play 14.

Furthermore, as the ranking of the top eight teams will act like a seeding for the knockout stage, there may be fewer dead rubbers which could increase Mbappe’s chances of starting every game because there will be something on the line.

In the league phase, Carlo Ancelotti’s men will play against: Brest, Stuttgart, Salzburg, Lille, Atalanta, Dortmund, AC Milan and Liverpool. There are plenty of defences there that will be extremely vulnerable against Real’s overwhelming attacking talent, to which, despite Vinicius Junior’s best efforts, Mbappe is their main goal threat.

Mbappe managed 0.67 goals per 90 in the competition last season, but PSG were in the Group of Death containing Milan, Dortmund and Newcastle. We can definitely expect him to improve on that figure, (having posted 0.97, 0.80, 0.80 and 0.68 in the previous four editions of the CL) and with Stuttgart heading to the Bernabeu on matchday one – this price could evaporate very quickly.

The German side have conceded three goals in each of their opening two Bundesliga encounters, away at Freiburg and at home to Mainz, so what hope do they have against Ancelotti’s embarrassment of riches?

15 goals is a steep target, but we’re confident that, barring any significant injury issues, the best player in the world, when onsong, can give us a very good run for our money.