Germany go into the tournament opener in fine form, having won three of their last four internationals, including victories against France and the Netherlands. Julian Nagelsmann, who has been in the job less than a year, appears to have the team moving swiftly in the right direction after a disastrous period under Hansi Flick.

The Germany squad should be full of confidence, with many of their players enjoying strong club seasons at the likes of Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid. Even those at Bayern Munich are in a winning habit, despite a relatively disappointing campaign.

Scotland’s form has been poor in recent months. Steve Clarke’s side have lost five of their last nine, with the exceptions coming against the weaker opponents in Georgia, Norway, Gibraltar, and Finland.

Germany have historically proved a far stronger side than Scotland and have won the last three matches against them, we expect them to carry on that run here.

No Scotland player was fouled more during the qualifying fixtures than John McGinn, who won 19 free kicks for his country at a rate of 2.47 per 90 minutes.

He is likely to be used heavily as an out ball to relieve pressure on the defence and will be asked to win free kicks as high up the field as possible to give Scotland set-piece opportunities, which is one of his biggest strengths.

McGinn has shown a consistent capacity to win free kicks with Aston Villa, in fact, he has averaged more than 2 fouls won per 90 in each of the five Premier League seasons he has played at the club.

On an occasion like this, McGinn is liable to be particularly central to a lot of the action, which gives himan excellent chance to win free kicks and relieve pressure.

Tierney is likely to play in the left centre back position, which is a role that could expose him defensively more than he is used to. This is particularly the case because of Andy Robertson’s attacking mindset down the left flank, with Tierney likely to be drawn into these areas, he will potentially leave space in behind that Germany can utilise, possibly leading to the defender having to make tactical fouls.

The Arsenal player committed 0.45 fouls per 90 in qualifying for this competition, including fouls in each of his two away appearances, against Norway and Cyprus.

Tierney will come up against Jamal Musiala, who was Bayern Munich’s most fouled player last season, winning 1.99 fouls per 90 across all competitions.

Despite the defender often being taken off late in qualifying matches, given Scotland’s shortage of quality centre backs, Tierney is likely to play the duration of what could be a tough night for the Scots.

Scotland have played against several elite nations in recent months and have a track record of struggling in these fixtures. They have suffered defeats against England, France, Spain, and the Netherlands – all by multiple goals. These teams are higher in the FIFA Rankings than Germany, but not significantly higher.

While Clarke’s side are solid in the midfield, their defence is a cause for concern at present. They conceded twice against Finland in their final pre-tournament friendly, leaked four against the Netherlands and France, shipped three versus England and a couple against Spain.

Germany will be eager to show their home supporters that they are a very different team to the one that was knocked out of the World Cup at the group stage.

Germany have scored two goals in three of their four friendly matches during 2024, and with a star-studded attacking line will expect to score at least a couple against the Scots.

Scotland picked up 19 cards across their eight qualifying games, which translates as 2.38 per match – these were all yellow cards. Of the teams that qualified for Euro 2024, only Turkey (3.38), Georgia (2.52) and Hungary (2.50) saw more yellow cards than Scotland during qualifying.

Referee Clement Turpin is an official who likes to get involved in games and averages more than 3.5 cards per game across all competitions this season.

It’s probable that Scotland will find themselves under significant defensive pressure and are likely to give the Frenchman plenty of opportunities to brandish cards.

In addition, Germany have a range of individual runners who will invite the type of challenges that result in bookings, particularly when backed by a partisan home crowd in what is sure to be a charged atmosphere in Munich. The likes of Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane, should he start, are likely to be magnets for physical challenges.

Scotland are likely to adopt an approach that sees them offer a physical challenge to the German side to disrupt their rhythm. The underdogs will want to make a mark on their opponents and unsettle them, particularly in the early stages of the match, but an energetic mindset is likely to result in fouls.

Clarke’s side racked up a high foul count in the qualifying campaign. In six of their eight matches, they posted 12 or more fouls which are steadily high figures in this bracket.

The Scots averaged 12.8 fouls conceded per game during qualifying and of the teams that have successfully qualified for the tournament, only Ukraine, with 13.6 per 90, were culpable of giving away more free kicks for indiscretions.

It’s difficult to read too much into Germany’s foul winning capacity from friendly matches alone, but they did win 13 free kicks in their last outing against Greece, whose approach will probably be mirrored closely by Scotland.