Harry Wilson has been Wales’ highest fouling player in the Nations League, committing 6 fouls in 5 games – an average of 1.2 per match.

In this match, Wilson will likely face Iceland’s Anderson and Thordarson, both of whom excel at drawing fouls, averaging 2.3 fouls drawn per 90 and 1.3 fouls drawn per 90 respectively. With Wilson’s track record and the opposition’s ability to provoke contact, this selection presents strong value.

Johann Gudmundsson has been a key contributor to Iceland’s attack, registering 11 shots in 5 Nations League games – the second-most in the squad and more than double the total of the third-ranked player.

Iceland’s attacking threat against Wales was evident in their October meeting, where they unleashed 20 shots and scored twice. Given Guðmundsson’s involvement in Iceland’s offense and their ability to create opportunities, this bet offers strong value.

Neco Williams has been consistently physical in his Nations League appearances, averaging 1.2 fouls per game.

In this match, he’s likely to face Iceland’s Anderson and Thordarson, two players skilled at drawing fouls, with averages of 2.3 and 1.3 fouls drawn per 90 minutes, respectively.

Iceland have been no strangers to disciplinary action, averaging 2.4 yellow cards per game in the Nations League. This trend is likely to continue under the watch of referee António Nobre, who is known for his strict rule enforcement.

This season, Nobre has averaged 5.3 yellow cards per game across 12 matches, and last season his numbers were even higher – an average of 5.9 yellows per match with 183 yellows and 10 reds across 31 games.

With Iceland’s combative style and Nobre’s card-happy approach, this pick looks reliable.

Orri Óskarsson has emerged as Iceland’s main attacking threat, delivering 3 goals in 5 Nations League matches. His sharpness in front of goal is evident in his averages: 1 shot on target and 2.6 shots per game.

Iceland’s ability to trouble Wales was clear in their reverse fixture in October, where they managed 20 shots and scored twice. With Óskarsson at the heart of Iceland’s offense, either scoring or creating chances, this bet offers excellent value given his form and the opposition’s vulnerabilities.

Iceland have been consistently strong in winning corners, averaging 4 per game in the Nations League. Notably, two of these matches were against a much tougher Turkey side, which highlights their ability to create attacking opportunities.

In their last meeting with Wales, Iceland registered 4 corners after taking 20 shots, showcasing their ability to generate chances and in turn, corners against Wales.

As referenced above, Williams’ fouling tendencies and his direct opponents’ ability to draw fouls makes him a good pick here.

The defender has committed 5 fouls in 4.7 90s for Forest this season, that’s an average of 1.06 per 90. Williams also sinned in Wales’ draw against Turkey on Saturday.

Ben Davies has averaged 1 foul per game in the Nations League, and with his ever-present role in the Wales defence, he is likely to see more opportunities to commit fouls as the match progresses.

He will likely come up against Iceland’s Anderson, who excels at drawing fouls, averaging 2.3 fouls drawn per 90, as well as Orri Óskarsson who has drawn a foul a game in the nations league.

Given Davies’ defensive role and Anderson and Óskarsson’s ability to draw fouls, this pick looks solid.