The reverse fixture ended in a surprising 0-0 draw, but not much suggests that outcome again here. Ipswich only have 2 clean sheets all season and their defensive metrics are some of the poorest in the Premier League.

Their xGA of 47.26 has been an overachievement of nearly 12 goals and it is unsustainable to keep playing as they have been. Brighton have only kept 3 clean sheets since the opening day of the season and are another team who have a leaky defence.

Combined, these two teams have 8 1-1 draws this season so it’s best to have that scoreline covered rather than take the more risky option of over 2.5 goals.

Ipswich’s main man upfront Liam Delap has found some form recently, scoring in consecutive Premier League games, so his confidence should be high.

16 of his 30 shots have been on target this season which is just over a 50% accuracy ratio. He can be a streaky player and his shots on targets come in clumps.

The good news is that he fired 3 attempts on target in his last home match v Chelsea and then netted from the penalty spot v Fulham. These are very generous odds on Delap just to have 1 or more shots on target, facing a Brighton defence which has struggled for clean sheets this season. He is on penalty duties too, which is also a major advantage for this bet.

It is clearly identifiable what role Liam Delap has in this Ipswich team. He’s employed as a pressing forward and one of his main tasks is to press hard and harass the opposition defence.

Delap averages 2.10 fouls per 90 mins and should be a good bet builder addition to at least match that average here. Brighton are the 7th most fouled team in the Premier League and have the type of players who are technical and skillful on the ball, even at the back.

Joel Veltman and Carlos Baleba are both fouled over once per 90 mins and these are the direct opponents which Delap will be facing.

The Ipswich Town captain does a lot of the dirty work in this team, averaging 2.30 tackles per 90 mins and exactly 2 fouls.

He has obtained the most Ipswich cards this season (7) and it’s always going to be difficult for him to play a clean game, especially facing a strong technical side such as Brighton.

Potential opponents include the elusive Joao Pedro, who draws 2.21 fouls per 90 mins and also Carlos Baleba who draws 1.40. Morsy will try to break up the play routinely and won’t be afraid to get cynical if needed. Backing him to commit 2 or more fouls looks well within range again considering his playing style and foul numbers so far this term.

The former Leeds man has been quite a foul magnet this season, drawing 1.60 fouls per 90 mins. He is very strong technically and has some silky ball skills which can sometimes verge on showboating. He is the type of player who can annoy opponents and sometimes the only way to stop Rutter is to foul him.

He could pop up anywhere in the final third but is likely to drift in and around the number 10 role which puts him up against Ipswich’s Sam Morsy, who has one of the highest foul rates of anyone in their team (2.10 per 90).

Delap has scored 8 times this season in the Premier League and looked sharp recently, scoring from the spot v Chelsea and Fulham. He is on penalty duty which is a huge attraction when backing him to score anytime, but in general he looks in excellent form.

Delap looks much sharper of late and comes up against a porous Brighton defence. One safety net you can add with Delap is to back him to score or be shown a card though, as he’s no stranger to a tackle.

He has picked up 6 cards in the Premier League this season and has racked up 3 cards in his last 5 games. He has scored or been shown a card in 4 of his last 5 Premier League games and in the Chelsea match he had the golden trio of a goal, assist and a card.

Joel Veltman is the most fouled Brighton player (2.30 per 90) and goes under the radar as a foul magnet. At 32, he’s a very experienced player who knows how to win cheap free kicks, but also has the technical and mental game to deceive opponents.

He should start at right back here which possibly puts him into the firing line of the pressing Ipswich forwards, Liam Delap and Sammy Szmodics. He might also come up against Leif Davis who averages exactly 1 foul per 90.

Taking Veltman to be fouled twice or more in this game looks like a great bet builder addition.

Ipswich are one of the most penalised teams in the Premier League, the Tractor Boys have racked up 55 total cards, the 3rd most of any side in the division. Brighton meanwhile, are one of the cleanest teams with only 4 sides obtaining fewer cards than them.

Brighton will probably have their lion’s share of possession here and tend to be a controlled, disciplined side under the management of Fabian Hurzeler. Ipswich have not lost the card battle in any of their last 6 Premier League matches, racking up 4 v Chelsea and 5 v Fulham.

Their upturn in form has perhaps coincided with being more committed. Across the season they average the 4th most fouls in the Premier League (12.1) and there’s a good chance they pick up the most cards here at a generous price.