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Republic of Ireland v Greece
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Kick Off: Tuesday 10th September at 19:45
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Competition: Nations League
Ireland will be looking to overcome the disappointment of a 2-0 defeat at the hands of England on Saturday. Although never fancied to win that game, they will be hoping to put on a better show for the home crowd here, having never looked threatening throughout.
Greece meanwhile cruised to a 3-0 win over Finland in their opening Nations League clash and currently sit top of the group. They will be hoping for another three points here as they look to challenge England for top spot in the group.
Republic of Ireland v Greece
Ireland’s opening fixture in the UEFA Nations League was lacklustre, as they struggled to create significant scoring opportunities, managing only one shot on target and generating just 0.65 xG. Their lack of offensive threat raises concerns about their ability to pose a challenge in this competition.
Greece, on the other hand, started their campaign with an impressive 3-0 win over Finland. However, the scoreline somewhat flattered them, as their finishing was far above average. Greece converted 3 of their 9 shots, achieving a remarkably high conversion rate.
To put that in perspective, Brentford currently hold the highest conversion rate in the Premier League at 21.7%, and even Erling Haaland’s prolific 2022/23 season ended with a conversion rate of about 34%. Despite the scoreline, Greece only produced 1.47 xG, suggesting their finishing was clinical rather than a result of creating high-quality chances.
Given these factors, the best bet for this match seems to be under 2.5 goals. Ireland have seen 2 or fewer goals in 16 of their last 25 home games, while Greece has experienced the same outcome in 11 of their last 17 away fixtures.
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📊 Republic of Ireland Form and Stats
Ireland’s recent form has been underwhelming, with the team losing three of their last five matches and scoring in only one of those games—a notable 2-1 victory against Hungary. Their struggles are further highlighted by their home form, where they have failed to score in three of their last five outings.
Four of these games have seen two or fewer goals, with the exception being their impressive win over Hungary. While the competitive nature of the upcoming fixture might offer Ireland a chance to improve, their recent performances suggest it won’t be an easy task.
Over their last five home matches, Ireland has averaged just 1.8 shots on target per game, surpassing two shots on target only once during this period. This indicates a recurring issue in creating and converting opportunities, which is likely to persist against a disciplined Greek side.
Given these statistics, we can expect a similar low-output performance from Ireland when they face Greece, making a high-scoring game unlikely.
📊 Greece Form and Stats
Greece’s recent form has been quite impressive, with the team winning three and drawing one of their last five matches, their only defeat coming against Germany. At home, Greece has shown their attacking prowess, securing dominant victories such as two 5-0 wins and a 3-0 triumph over Finland at the Karaiskakis Stadium.
However, their performances away from home have been less prolific, though they typically manage to find the net at least once, averaging 1.25 goals in their last four away matches.
Despite their ability to score on the road, Greece’s away games have generally been low-scoring affairs, with only one of these four matches featuring over 2.5 total goals. This suggests that while Greece can be relied upon to score away from home, they are not necessarily involved in high-scoring encounters.
⚔️ Republic of Ireland v Greece Head-to-Head
This fixture between Ireland and Greece is expected to be a closely contested match, with the teams ranked 58th and 54th respectively. Ireland, however, are currently in a promising phase, developing some decent quality within their squad, featuring talents like Szmodics, Idah, and Kelleher.
Despite this, Greece has historically had the upper hand in this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings between the two nations. Only one of these encounters has seen over 2.5 goals, with their matchups averaging just 1.4 goals per game since their first meeting in 2000, highlighting the typically low-scoring nature of this rivalry.
Their last two meetings were more recent, as both teams were in the same group during the Euro qualifying campaign in 2023. Greece emerged victorious in both games, including a solid 2-0 win away at Lansdowne Road.
This historical dominance and the tendency for low-scoring games suggest a tight, competitive clash, where Greece’s recent form against Ireland may once again come into play.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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