In this article…
Germany v Italy
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Kick Off: Sunday 23rd March at 19:45
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Competition: UEFA Nations League
Germany take an advantage into the second leg of this Nations League tie having recorded a 2-1 win in Italy thanks to second-half goals from Tim Kleindienst and Leon Goretzka. Italy were competitive in the game, opening the scoring through Sandro Tonali but ultimately were unable to resist the German fightback.
The winner of this tie will face either Denmark or Portugal in the semi-finals of the Nations League. The Nations League can be a springboard for some of Europe’s biggest sides to build towards international success in a major tournament as we saw with Luis de la Fuente’s Spain side in the last edition.
⭐ Germany v Italy Best Bet
Italy were bright in attacking areas against Germany in the first leg and should have really added to their early goal with Luciano Spalletti’s side managing six shots on target from 13 attempts in total. Italy drew five saves from Oliver Baumann in the first leg and can draw a similar amount again here, seeing as they are chasing the tie and need at least a goal to have a chance of progressing.
Principally, Spalletti is an attacking-minded coach, he likes his side to be on the front foot but has encountered issues in translating this style to the national side. That being said, Italy’s performance in the Nations League up until this point offers optimism for the near future of Italian football. Italy have scored 14 goals across their seven games in the Nations League this campaign whilst averaging 5.4 shots on target per game, an average they exceeded in the first leg encounter against Germany.
Italy have drawn 3+ saves from the opposition keeper in six of their seven Nations League matches so far.
The current gamestate will mean that Italy will have to come out and attack at some point in the game. Germany are likely to have the majority of the ball as well as control proceedings in the early stages of the game but expect Italy to have spells as the game progresses where they put the Germans under pressure and can test the keeper on at least three occasions, as they did in the first leg meeting between the sides.
🟢 Germany v Italy #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
BTTS landed in the first leg meeting between these sides with Germany coming from behind to register a 2-1 victory in Italy. Germany are yet to concede a goal at home in the Nations League but could find that record broken here given that Italy have scored in each of their seven games in the tournament.
Corners were crucial in the first leg, Italy racked up six whilst Germany had eight with the away side also scoring what proved to be the winning goal from a corner. The close nature of this tie should see the corner count rise steadily as the game progresses again with plenty of scope for both sides to rack up at least four corners each.
Italy received two yellow cards in the first leg whilst Germany were shown one caution. The first leg should have really produced more cards considering that there were 34 fouls exchanged between the sides in the opening encounter. The referee for this game is averaging 3.33 cards per game across his nine appointments across all competitions. Second legs of ties usually produce more cautions with the immediate jeopardy of exiting the competition.
👕 Germany v Italy Predicted XI
🔍 Germany v Italy Players to Watch
🔵 Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali is improving with every performance after a turbulent period on the sidelines due to suspension. He’s shown his versatility this season in operating in a slightly deeper role for Newcastle and being platformed in more forward areas for his national side. This was evident in the first leg with Tonali finding the back of the net after just nine minutes.
Tonali had two shots in total during the first leg and regularly made supporting attacking runs as well as occasionally darting in behind the German backline, who do have a tendency to push quite high up the pitch when they have the ball in forward areas. Tonali is averaging 0.87 shots per 90 across his seven appearances in the Nations League this season, a record that has returned two goals for the 24-year-old.
⚪ Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala was right at the heart of the action in the first leg, registering nine foul involvements (five fouls won, four fouls committed). Musiala usually operates in central areas which can be very busy when playing against Italy. Luciano Spalletti likes to pack this area of the pitch which makes Italy very difficult to break down if trying to pry them open through the centre.
Musiala is averaging 2.78 fouls won per 90 across his five appearances in the Nations League this season and should see this high foul won count replicated against the same stubborn trio that he faced in the first leg.
📂 Germany v Italy Cheat Sheet
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We’ve also got Match Result and BTTS Tips and a Sunday Goals Algorithm Acca available at your fingertips for this Sunday’s fixtures. You can find all of Andy’s Football Tips here.
For more tips on Sunday’s Nations League action, you can check out our Nations League Accumulator, our Spain v Netherlands Bet Builder Tips, or our Portugal v Denmark Betting Predictions.
💻 Germany v Italy Form and Tactics
There isn’t likely to be too much change from the first leg setups for these sides, both teams grew into the game after a slightly flat first half. Germany, in particular, looked a lot brighter after the break, scoring both their goals in the second half.
One change that Julian Nagelsmann may make here is to bring in Tim Kleindienst from the start, he’s having an excellent season in the Bundesliga and scored Germany’s equaliser with pretty much his first touch after entering the pitch.
Germany will line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape with a particular focus on trying to find a way around Italy’s strategy of congesting the central areas of the pitch. This is where Germany have a lot of technical players such as Jamal Musiala and Pascal Gross, who saw their influence limited by Italy’s robust approach. This seemed to get under the skin of the German players given that they committed 20 fouls in the first leg meeting. This approach essentially sets up man-for-man battles across the midfield areas and makes it very difficult for teams to find any rhythm or control in the game.
Spalletti realises that his team is not at the same stage in their development as this German side and has adapted this approach to consider that fact. Italy’s work off the ball is superb, they are tactically intelligent and flexible as most Serie A sides are which can make it difficult to predict what approach they’ll go with, but the former Napoli manager has certainly settled on a system. The 3-5-2 shape they’ll line up with reflects the nature of Italian football, as well as offering the perfect platform for certain players to flourish given that Italy are lacking in certain parts of the pitch – especially in forward areas where they can be a bit unimaginative and rely on crosses into the box.
🏁 Germany v Italy Ref Watch
- Referee: Szymon Marciniak
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 3.33 / 0.22 |
| Fouls Given | 21.78 |
| Penalties | 0.33 |
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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