Juventus look shaky defensively, conceding in 10 of their last 11 outings, including all three Champions League matches. Even under new head coach Luciano Spalletti, they conceded against Cremonese in his first game, suggesting defensive stability isn't there yet.

They have scored 14 goals in 10 domestic matches and six in three Champions League games. Sporting have hit the back of the net in 15 consecutive fixtures, scoring 40 times and conceding 12 in that run, showing they’re relentless going forward but still give up chances.

I expect Spalletti will want to mark his arrival in the Champions League with a good attacking performance after Juventus only scored nine goals in their eight group phase games last campaign, which should lead to a slightly more open game. Both sides possess attacking talent and vulnerabilities at the back, creating the perfect recipe for an open, goal-heavy contest, making both teams to score a smart play.

A selection I like the look of is over 7.5 corners. In 2024/2025, Juventus matches averaged 9.2 corners per game, which has increased to 9.85 this season.

Juventus possess some excellent wide players like Francisco Conceicao, Andrea Cambiaso and Filip Kostic who love to drive at defenders and whip crosses in, often leading to corners.  Looking back at Luciano Spaletti’s last club stint at Napoli in 2022/23, his side’s games averaged 9.9 match corners, suggesting a managerial shift shouldn’t impact the data.

Sporting Lisbon matches averaged 9.56 corners per game across 2024/25 and 8.6 in the Champions League. This season, their games average 8.0 across their three Champions League fixtures and 10.57 in all competitions.

Their recent corner counts are: 10, 9, 11, 4, 25, 6, 9, 12 and 10. Of course, Sporting’s domestic dominance will give a slight boost to these numbers, but looking at their UCL campaign last season, I’m happy with the over 7.5 match corners line.

Sporting have deployed midfielder Joao Simoes in their last two European games. The 18-year-old has been impressive, showing excellent ball retention and carrying.

Due to this, he has drawn 2+ fouls in each, backed up by two and onw in 149 domestic minutes – at a rate of 2.14 p90 – making 1+ fouls drawn appealing against a combative Juventus midfield.

He should be up against Weston McKennie and Manuel Locatelli – both of whom are known for their energy in midfield. Each of the two has committed 2+ fouls in each of their last five games. The pairing works best when Locatelli anchors play, allowing McKennie to be the aggressor in winning the ball back, but both have excellent fouling numbers due to their intent to break up any promising opposition attacks.

I suspect Sporting will try and catch Juventus on the counter at times, and it is likely the midfield pairing will be tasked to make tactical fouls to prevent Sporting from breaking away dangerously.

Another player selection I like is Dusan Vlahovic to be fouled 1+ times. Defenders struggle to contain the Serbian when he is holding up the ball, resulting in him being fouled nine times in his last four starts, including three times in the last round against Real Madrid.

He is fouled on average 1.33 p90 over his last 50 games. He should be up against a centre back pairing of Ousmane Diomande and Goncalo Inacio, who have committed 1.33 and 0.83 fouls per 90, respectively, across their last 50 matches.

Diomande is the more aggressive defender of the pairing. In last season’s group phase, the Ivorian committed 10 fouls in just six games where he played more than 45 minutes. Zeno Debast has been preferred to Diomande for most of this season, but he started at the weekend and was looking back to his aggressive best, committing four fouls, three of which were on the opposition striker. Pairing both sets of data, a price of 1.50 for 1+ fouls won looks great value.