Burton Albion v Forest Green Rovers

Burton Albion’s performance level was perfectly acceptable in their 2-1 defeat at Shrewsbury Town at the weekend, as they continue to look a much-improved side under Dino Maamria. However, the Brewers have still won one League One match this season, making it very difficult to justify why they are so short in hosting Forest Green Rovers on Saturday.

FGR have been off the pace in some matches this season, including for large periods of last weekend’s 4-0 drubbing at home to fellow newly promoted side Exeter City. But, Ian Burchnall will get a reaction from his players and the bookmakers are not showing enough respect to the visitors.

After all, the bottom half of the third tier is very evenly matched this season, and it is hard to justify why the market is treating Forest Green like the worst team in the division when they have the attacking players to put up a strong fight at the Pirelli Stadium. Rovers have underperformed in their defensive third with individual errors contributing to the eye-catching scoreline last week and some positive variance would put them in a good position to earn a positive result on Saturday.

Cambridge United v Derby County

Potential managerial movements are set to overshadow a very exciting hosting of Derby County for Cambridge United on Saturday. Mark Bonner has been interviewed for the Rotherham United job this week, which is bound to have an unsettling effect on the U’s squad and the 36-year-old seems to be the Millers’ first choice to replace Paul Warne in the dugout.

Warne on the other hand will be aiming to hit the ground running at Derby and he could have a galvanising effect on the group, having won three promotions from League One in recent years. The Rams have underperformed in the final third so far this season, scoring just nine in the league from 14.31 expected goals (xG) for and it would be no surprise to see a regression to the mean occur, and be reported as Warne’s genius. 

Bonner is the main reason that Cambridge have gone from a bottom half League Two side to a club that supporters will be believing can compete for a play-off spot in the third tier this season, and his exit is likely to have a negative impact on the squad, should it occur before Saturday, which seems likely.

Charlton Athletic v Oxford United

Both teams to score got up for us again last weekend, when Jack Payne netting a late consolation for Charlton Athletic in a 3-1 defeat at Barnsley. That said, the Addicks created ample chances to get back into the game and were disappointed not to get on the scoresheet earlier on in the match.

The Addicks have been hopeless defensively so far this season, keeping just one very fortunate clean sheet, but also scoring in nine of ten games so far. They have welcomed Mandela Egbo into the squad in the last few weeks, Steven Sessegnon is in contention to feature and Chuks Aneke is the only player still sidelined.

Oxford did the double over Charlton last season, including a 4-0 win at The Valley and even though they have had troubles in front of goal this term, the Addicks’ backline is there for the taking. Ben Garner will be contemplating a change of shape, Charlton are unbeaten at home in League One this season and there will likely be some friction from the stands as supporters begin to unanimously turn against the ownership of the club.

Wycombe Wanderers v Plymouth Argyle

Wycombe Wanderers welcome league leaders Plymouth Argyle to Adams Park in aiming to bounce back from their 3-1 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday last time out. The Chairboys, who made the play-off last term as a newly relegated side, are still being priced as a promotion-chasing team when they have not been performing as such at the start of this term.

Due to Gareth Ainsworth’s expertise Wycombe have been overperforming for some years now, and a season of mid table mediocrity would be a return to the norm in looking at the quality in their squad. Therefore, to see them priced up as narrow favourites against an Argyle side who put Ipswich Town to the sword in their last outing is hard to justify. Argyle’s defensive numbers have not been anywhere near as good as their attack this season, but the data is skewed by a heavy 5-1 defeat at Charlton Athletic early on in the campaign, when they were pulled apart after going down to ten men in the first half.

The Pilgrims have undoubtedly been in the most promising four teams in the league so far this season and therefore there is value on them at a big price on their travels this weekend.

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