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Bolton v Oxford

While both teams had to weather storms to get here, it would be fair to say that Bolton vs Oxford is probably the right League One play-off final on the balance of play over the two legs of the semi-finals.

If you want to check out more of our EFL content, make sure to browse our EFL predictions and EFL accumulator tips or even our both teams to score tips and player shots on target tips.

We have also tracked all the best free bets for UK customers to ensure our readers always get the best value from our football betting tips, and we’ve also made a list of the top bet builder sites for some extra value during play-off season.

The routes that the clubs have taken to get here are slightly different. Oxford made the move to change their long term manager last season, Karl Robinson, their appointed successor Liam Manning was poached, so they went for a left-field appointment in Des Buckingham, and that has paid off to this point, despite some hairy moments.

Ian Evatt has built this Bolton side over four seasons. Each season has seen an improvement from the last, and the ultimate prize could yet be a return to the Championship after a five-year adventure in the bottom two divisions.

Oxford haven’t experienced life in the second tier of English football since 1998/99, and they fell further, all the way to 9th in the National League in 2007/08, Yellows fans will be hoping that this play-off final will end in better circumstances than 2020 when they lost out to Wycombe Wanderers at Wembley, at least fans will be able to attend this time around.

Bolton v Oxford Best Bets

➡️ Bolton to win (in normal time) @ 1.80 with Betfair
➡️ George Thomason to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.67 with Paddy Power

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📂 Bolton v Oxford Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find match stats for all whole host of games on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

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⚔️ Bolton v Oxford Head-to-Head

Bolton fans will be very much hoping that they can repeat the performance that they put in when these two met in the league in March.

It was 5-0 to Wanderers at the Toughsheet that day, with five different scorers. This was helped by an early Nathanael Ogbeta goal, which was followed up by Josh Dacres-Cogley’s finish before the half-hour mark.

This knocked the stuffing out of Oxford as they were unable to muster anything in response. Only four shots were had by Yellows, culminating in a meagre 0.33 xG. It is almost more of a concern than the five goals conceded that Oxford created so little with the game state in their favour, with Bolton not needing to come out and score more.

The first meeting of the season came back in November and it was Des Buckingham’s first home match in charge of Oxford.

The game ended goalless with a man-of-the-match display from then Oxford loan goalkeeper James Beadle. Bolton missed two big chances and edged the shot count and xG count on that day.

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📊 Bolton Form and Stats

Bolton have gathered 12 points from their last six League One fixtures, going undefeated in that time, and although they technically suffered defeat against Barnsley last time out, they were managing a two-goal first leg lead.

This means that they are in good form and Evatt has clearly made Bolton a difficult team to beat. They do still have a real goal threat though in Dion Charles, Aaron Collins, and a good, experienced reserve list including Victor Adeboyejo and Cameron Jerome.

Bolton have scored in eight consecutive matches, averaging 2 goals a game in their last ten. Six of their last ten have seen both teams score, and five out of ten have seen more than 2 goals in the match.

One has to go back to Bolton’s visit to Stevenage for the last time that they failed to create over 1 xG in a match, which was also the last time they failed to score, eight matches have passed since that affair.

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📊 Oxford Form and Stats

The 0-5 humiliation described above was a real turning point for Buckingham and Oxford. They have lost only once since then, though it is a concern that it was a similarly important match at home to Lincoln, who were their main rivals for the play-offs at the time.

However, Oxford have probably done enough in multiple crunch matches since to suggest that they aren’t necessarily a team that crumbles under pressure. They played well and won on the final day at Exeter, and didn’t succumb to Peterborough pressure in the second leg to make it to Wembley.

Oxford have won six of their last ten overall, losing only one. They have scored in nine of their last ten, and seen both teams score in only four of them. Over 2.5 goals has landed in four of the matches, but only once in the last five.

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💰 Bolton v Oxford Best Bets 

The trends are certainly on Bolton’s side. A 5th-placed finisher has never beaten a 3rd-placed finisher in the League One play-offs, since the leagues were re-christened Championship, League One, and League Two. Of course, this could also mean that variance suggests that the record should be broken sooner rather than later.

What can be suggested is that the match will be tight, six of the last seven have seen a winning margin of one goal, though extra time has only been required only once in the last nine finals.

With most trends and form pointing in Bolton’s direction though, the best bet is to back Bolton to win in normal time at 1.80 with Betfair .

Another angle worth looking at is the individual player markets. These markets aren’t often available for League One, so there is a rare treat here.

The angle that is worth backing as a best bet is for George Thomason to commit 2+ fouls at 1.67 on Paddy Power. Thomason is the most competitive central midfielder in the Bolton team, he regularly plays 90 minutes, and has fouled twice or more in three of his last five matches, but, moreover, he will be up against players who draw a lot of fouls.

Ruben Rodrigues has been fouled 103 times this season, Marcus McGuane is another who is heavily fouled, and Tyler Goodhram is also fouled regularly. It seems very likely that Thomason will have his work cut out in midfield and, given his record, sinning twice or more seems likely.

If you are interested in reading more on betting in the fouls market, our in-depth fouls betting guide is live on-site to help.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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