A comeback win against Birmingham City at the weekend has kept Sunderland’s play-off hopes alive. The Black Cats are not the only team to sit within three points of the top six but should carry belief with four matches remaining. A team loaded with young players still presents a very bright future for Sunderland even if they are to miss out this season, The likes of right-back Trai Hume and midfielders Abdoullah Ba, Dan Neil, Edouard Micht, and Pierre Ekwah have been regular features across the season, primarily in a fluid 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation. Jack Clarke and Manchester United loanee Amad Diallo have several individual moments of quality to their name. Alex Pritchard recently being preferred in the striker role ahead of Leeds United loanee Joe Gelhardt.

Defeat at Swansea City on Saturday has halted Huddersfield Town’s momentum but hasn’t derailed it. Neil Warnock has drawn plenty of plaudits for rescuing the Terriers’ season and guiding them out of the relegation zone. In front of his consistent back three Matty Pearson, Michał Helik and Will Boyle are a number of influential attacking players. Jack Rudoni is capable of being a creator from midfield or out wide. Josh Koroma and Josh Ruffels can be deployed as attacking wide options ahead of Jaheim Headley and David Kasumu. Danny Ward leads the line, with experienced striker Martyn Waghorn or powerful young forward Tyreece Simpson available in reserve.

Home goals have been a regularity at the Stadium of Light this season. You have to return to the 5th of November for the last home game that Sunderland failed to score in. Huddersfield Town meanwhile have netted in five out of their previous six, centre-back Matty Pearson looking a particular threat from set pieces with four goals in that time. Sunderland might win this Tuesday night to keep their play-off hopes alive, but they may have to work for it against a team close to pulling off a great escape.

This bet flies a little bit in the face of the stats, which is the main reason for it to be a value bet. Recent matches at Bloomfield Road have seen quite a lot of goals, a 6-1, 1-3, and 1-4, but on Saturday, under a caretaker manager in Stephen Dobbie, Blackpool seemed to regain some of their solidity and dogged defending in order to restrict, an admittedly limited, Wigan side.

West Brom obviously have more about them from an attacking perspective than Wigan, but I expect Blackpool to be relatively successful in keeping them at bay for the most part. It is difficult to predict what you might get out of the West Brom forwards at the moment. They did very well on Saturday to turn around a losing position at Stoke but there have been a couple of blanks and poor efforts in other recent away matches.

It seems as though West Brom have never truly settled on a way of attacking in terms of both personnel and strategy. There are some very talented forward players in the squad, but never have they been particularly convincing as a unit. Somehow though, they are still in with a shot at reaching the playoffs, so motivation for both sides will be there.

I read this to be quite a tight and tense affair, with both sides needing to take something out of the game, There may well come a point where one of the sides decides to go for the maximum points but I am not expecting a match with many chances for the most part.

It is always tough to read too much into one game, but Stephen Dobbie certainly will have been pleased and proud of the way his team defended on Saturday and will be reinforcing a similar mindset and attitude for this one.

Ipswich Town are sensational. A late equaliser at Cheltenham Town is the only blip in a run of nine wins from their last 10 matches, and that goal is the only one they have conceded since the 11th of February. Ipswich’s strong record is particularly shown at home, where they are unbeaten since the 22nd of November. Since Boxing Day alone, the Tractor Boys have recorded 2+ goal home wins against Oxford United, Rotherham United, Morecambe, Forest Green Rovers, Burton Albion, Accrington Stanley, Shrewsbury Town, Wycombe Wanderers and Charlton Athletic. Last weekend’s 6-0 demolition of Charlton included a hat-trick for Conor Chaplin, now up to 22 league goals from attacking midfield. Striker Freddie Ladapo, benched behind George Hirst, scored twice after being brought on, with left-winger Nathan Broadhead providing two assists and attacking left-back Leif Davis contributing with a goal and assist. Wes Burns, Marcus Harness, Kayden Jackson, and Kyle Edwards are all additional available frontline options.

How desperate Port Vale must be for the season to end now. A now seven-game winless run and a record of just three wins since the New Year have left Vale fans concerned about whether their current 46-point tally will be enough to keep their heads above water. Additional deep concern has come from recent discipline, with the Valiants picking up four red cards across their last three matches. Those suspended for this midweek include midfielders Funso Ojo and Tom Conlon, as well as full-back Sammy Robinson which leaves Darrell Clarke with a very restricted number of available defensive options for the trip to Portman Road. Midfield absences may in turn force very young, inexperienced pros James Plant or Tommy McDermott to get more game than expected.

Targeting not only automatic promotion but the League One title, Port Vale simply should not be expected to provide any stern test to a formidable Ipswich Town, especially at Portman Road where they really dominate and demolish opponents from the top and bottom of the table. The more favourable games will come for Port Vale before the season is up, they are going to dig in and pull through this one first though…

Cambridge United were seven points adrift inside the relegation zone four matches ago, but three wins and a draw now has the U’s only sitting behind Oxford United, and below the dotted line, on goal difference.

The U’s deserve great credit for sticking with Mark Bonner and they got past sixth-placed Peterborough United to a 2-0 scoreline on Saturday with another strong display. Sam Smith has four in four and has reached double figures in the league as a result, finally coming good when it matters after what has been a frustrating campaign in front of goal.

Without being too reactive, I am looking to oppose Wycombe Wanderers who went down 1-0 at Morecambe on Saturday, continuing their drop-off since Gareth Ainsworth left the club. Matt Bloomfield has won three, drawn three, and lost five at the helm, posting a points-per-game of just 1.09.

The Chairboys have posted a narrowly negative expected goals (xG) process since the change in the dugout and the weekend’s defeat meant they are five points off the playoffs with four games remaining. The U’s will remain focused despite their local derby defeat on Saturday and should be able to impose themselves on the leakier visitors.

The appointment of Duncan Ferguson on a five-and-a-half-year contract has not got off to a good start.

In the 14 games since Ferguson came in, FGR have won once, drawn twice, and lost 11 times to produce a points-per-game of 0.36. With the club’s impressive long-term vision that may not be too much of a concern for the hierarchy, but from a punting standpoint they are very, very opposable.

Fleetwood Town have enjoyed an excellent first season under Scott Brown and have carried a greater attacking threat since the January double signing of Jack Marriott and Jayden Stockley, with the former grabbing a hat-trick in Saturday’s 5-2 win at Accrington Stanley. The Cod Army sit in 14th but are just two points off of tenth position and have won two of their last three on the road.

FGR’s relegation was confirmed on Saturday when they were beaten 5-1 at home to Barnsley, Fleetwood have to travel a lot further with the quick turnaround but the mood in the camp will be significantly more positive.

This match provides an excellent opportunity for them to continue finishing the season strongly and an odds-against-outright price is very tempting.

John Mousinho makes his return to the Kassam Stadium on Tuesday evening for the first time as manager of Portsmouth.

The former center-back may receive a warm welcome but his presence could still in turn add some spice to proceedings. Pompey have missed an opportunity to pile the pressure on toward the top six, having won just one of their last five in the league and they are now six points off the playoffs with four games to play. The visitors have also seen under 2.5 goals in their last four matches.

Oxford have been a peculiar follow in the five matches since Liam Manning’s arrival, the objective has clearly been to shore up the defence but the Yellows seem to have lost something in the attacking third as a result. Yellows have drawn four and lost one under Manning, but while scoring just two goals in the process, one of which was a controversial penalty, and weekend wins for Morecambe and Cambridge has only increased the pressure on them.

Pompey have not scored more than one goal in any of their last four matches, while Oxford matches are averaging 1 goal per game since Manning’s arrival. Unders it is.

Back out of the relegation zone, Crawley Town went through the motions in their 2-1 win against Tranmere Rovers. Red Devils keeper Corey Addai had a real redemption story, his early mistake giving Tranmere the lead before later down the line saving a late Kane Hemmings penalty to preserve Crawley’s 2-1 advantage. The first-half goals from winger Aramide Oteh and midfielder Jack Powell may have carried a touch of fortune about them, but they continue a positive trend for Crawley Town. Despite a very difficult season, Scott Lindsey’s do regularly find the net at least once a game at their Broadfield Stadium home. There have only been five occasions this entire season when they haven’t. Having a frontline of Ashley Nadesan and Dom Telford will always be able to install some belief into Crawley that they can cause problems against more favourable League Two opposition.

Back-to-back wins have strengthened Colchester United’s chances of survival, moving six points clear of the relegation zone after the weekend’s results. Ben Garner is having to adapt to inheriting a squad not initially built in his image but is getting sufficient success with a 3-4-1-2 previously utilised by Matt Bloomfield. Dynamic right-wing-back Junior Tchamadeu remains a huge prospect at just 19 years old. Leyton Orient loanee Connor Wood occupies the other flank, with Arthur Read and Ossama Ashley sitting deeper in midfield. Attacking midfield talent Noah Chilvers has goals in each of his last two games and has four goals across his last six, playing behind a frontline that includes the physical outlet of John Akinde and the more lively Colchester academy product Samson Tovide. Unbeaten in three on the road, all against top-seven contenders, Colchester United have failed to score in just two away games since the beginning of 2023.

A crucial clash down at the bottom of the Football League, Crawley Town and Colchester United will both believe they are capable of competing with and beating each other. Crawley carry particularly better confidence in home games than away matches, whilst Colchester United’s quality will always give them a chance against bottom-ranked opposition. Goals could be likely this Tuesday night.

Stevenage will fancy their chances of beating out-of-form Doncaster Rovers on Tuesday night as they eye promotion to League One.

Boro are 3rd in the League Two table and their fate is in their own hands as they prepare for their final five games. They won 2-1 at home to AFC Wimbledon over the weekend courtesy of goals by attackers Jordan Roberts and Jamie Reid and their boss Steve Evans said his players were ‘exceptional’ as they look to get over the line and promoted this season. Injuries in the goalkeeping department have seen the Hertfordshire club extend Timothee Lo-Tutala’s emergency loan from Hull City for another week and the former Tottenham Hotspur man has made a positive impression between the sticks so far. Stevenage have scored the same amount of goals this term to table toppers Leyton Orient and have the third-best goal return in the division which shows the quality they have in attacking areas with the likes of Roberts, Reid, and Luke Norris at their disposal. At the other end of the pitch, they are a tough team to beat and have lost only once in their last eight as they look to keep their momentum going.

Pressure is mounting on Doncaster’s Danny Schofield as the Yorkshire club continue their slide down the table. They drew 2-2 away at Harrogate Town last time out and threw away a 2-0 lead after goals by wingers Aidan Barlow and Luke Molyneux as they drop down to 14th position in the league. Schofield said he was ‘disappointed’ and his side missed the influence of the injured Tommy Rowe in midfield, with his replacement Liam Ravenhill not as experienced. Doncaster have nothing to play for now and it may be hard for them to motivate themselves for their remaining last few games of the campaign, especially with it looking likely that a lot of their players will be moving on this summer following their poor season. Their aim before a ball was kicked this term was to go up but they have struggled to find any sort of consistency and have developed a habit of gifting goals to opponents over recent times. They are winless in their last seven and have won just once in 12 so they will be there for the taking for promotion-chasing Stevenage if they show up and play their normal game.

Bradford City have promotion in their sights as they look to pick up a positive result away at inconsistent Swindon Town.

The Robins’ season is over and they will be itching for the campaign to end so they can start preparing for the summer with changes needed. They drew 0-0 at home to Barrow last time out and had just one shot on target, with their boss Jody Morris saying afterward that it is an ‘ongoing process’ with his team as pressure mounts on him regarding his situation at the helm due to their poor run of form. To make matters worse, the Wiltshire club have a whole host of individuals who are out of action at the moment such as Ellis Iandolo, Mathieu Baudry, Reece Devine, Cian Harries and Ciaran Brennan which isn’t ideal and significantly limits the options at Morris’ disposal. Swindon are struggling for results at the moment and any side who faces them at the moment will fancy their chances of getting something. They are winless in their last nine outings which has seen their hopes of a play-off push fade away fast and they also now haven’t scored in their last two matches which is a worry as they take on a team on a roll up next.

Bradford have a great chance to go up this term and could rise into the top three on Tuesday if they pick up a win and other results go their way. They beat Rochdale 3-0 over the weekend to boost their promotion push after goals by defender Sam Stubbs and winger Scott Banks, with the other one coming via an own goal by Ethan Ebanks-Landell. Their manager Mark Hughes was delighted with the performance and admitted it was a ‘straightforward’ afternoon at Spotland. On the selection front, the Bantams have been carefully easing midfielder Emmanuel Osadebe into the action after his injury problems and he came off the bench against the Dale which is a boost as he provides useful competition and depth in the middle of the park to the likes of Richie Smallwood and Ryan East. Bradford are unbeaten in their last 11 games and are proving to be a tough nut to crack right now, keeping three clean sheets in their last five. Their away form is also strong and they haven’t lost on the road in their last nine fixtures away from Valley Parade.

Northampton Town will be eager to pick up all three points as they make the trip to Sutton United this week.

The U’s head into the game on the back of their 2-0 loss at home to Leyton Orient over the weekend and their season is over now. The remaining four games are a formality for them and their form has slumped over recent times, with boss Matt Gray saying after their defeat to the O’s that it was ‘hard to take’ and it doesn’t get any easier for his players as they prepare to take on another promotion contender next up. The London club are without skipper Craig Eastmond and are missing his influence in the middle of the park, with Harry Beautyman taking his place, and winger Will Randall is also sidelined which is a blow with Omar Bugiel and Lee Angol not proving many goals up front recently. Sutton are winless in their last seven league outings which suggests their team are already on the beach now and their poor results has seen their hopes of getting the playoffs squashed. They are usually a strong team at Gander Green Lane but have lost their last three on their own patch to Grimsby Town, Stockport County, and most recently Orient without finding the net once which is a worry.

Northampton missed out on automatic promotion by a single goal last year and will be desperate to get over the line this season. They deserve credit for the way they have picked themselves up from the disappointment of the last campaign and the fact they are 2nd in the table shows their character. Jon Brady’s side drew 0-0 away at Carlisle which wasn’t a bad result against a rival at the top and their manager said his team were ‘excellent’ in spells so if they can play like that against Sutton they should have no problems in getting something. In terms of injury news, the Cobblers will assess defender Harvey Lintott ahead of their trip down to London with Jack Sowerby ready to step in again for him if needed. Northampton have only lost once in their previous 11 fixtures and they are getting results now at the right time as they look to get over the line. They have quality all over the pitch and with 20-goal Sam Hoskins in their starting XI, they will fancy their chances of beating anyone in the league.

Harrogate Town need a win much more more than out-of-form Walsall as they look to secure their Football League status for another year.

The Yorkshire club are three points above the drop zone and have been showing a real fighting spirit with their recent performances. They fought back from 2-0 down for a third game in a row at home to Doncaster Rovers last time out to draw 2-2 courtesy of second-half goals by striker Luke Armstrong and defender Tom Eastman, having done the same against Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon in their fixtures prior to their last one. Their boss Simon Weaver said he will take the ‘positives’ from the game and will be hoping his players can secure three points not just one on Tuesday evening. On the selection front, midfielder Levi Sutton is out of action through injury but Weaver has useful options in his position such as George Thomson and Josh Falkingham, who have both been with him since the club were in non-league so understand how important it is that they stay up. Harrogate are fighting for their lives and are unbeaten in their last five games which is encouraging for them. In addition, they have only been beaten once in their last nine fixtures which proves they are a tough team to play right now.

Walsall have been poor recently and were beaten 2-0 away at Crewe Alexandra over the weekend as they slumped to another loss. Their manager Michael Flynn said it was ‘poor’ defending from his side for both of the Railwaymen’s goals and his team have been struggling to pick up points recently as another potentially disappointing game beckons for the Midlands outfit. They will be without midfielder Joss Labadie after he was sent off at the Alexandra Stadium in the second half and his absence will be felt in the middle of the park, with other options such as Brandon Comley and Jacob Maddox not as experienced as their teammate. Walsall haven’t scored in the past two games now and are also winless in their last six outings. Their away form has been dire over recent times and they haven’t won on the road in their last 10 fixtures which shows they need to fix their mentality fast if they are to turn their fortunes around.

A game between two of the National League’s most entertaining sides and a game that both sides would like to win to mathematically secure their survival.

Starting with Gateshead. The first thing to note is this is their eighth match in three weeks. They have played Saturday, Tuesday, Saturday, Tuesday, Friday, Monday, Wednesday, Saturday, and now Tuesday. Tiredness has clearly kicked in with Gateshead conceding 1.64xG on average over their last three matches, conceding five goals in their last two and Mike Williamson making five changes for both of those games. However, they continue to create and take chances, scoring 19 goals in their last seven games from 17.69xG over their last eight.

Like their hosts, Dorking Wanderers have given absolutely everything in their bid to survive, Marc White is finally able to field something of a consistent XI and it paid dividends, winning four of their last six to all but avoid the drop. However, they are a part-time outfit and this is their seventh game in three and a half weeks with almost the same XI playing every game. They made two changes at the weekend and there could be a couple more with White now looking towards next season – he gave Aaron Kuhl his first start at the weekend. They beat Altrincham 3-2 last time out.

Both sides will play on the front foot and while victory remains important, it’s also not essential, meaning we may see a slight drop-off in intensity, opening the space for two very creative sides.

A case of backing the side with something to play for over the side with nothing to play for.

Solihull Moors were two-nil up at the weekend against Yeovil Town before conceding twice in the second half. They have given full debuts to youngsters Finn Howell and Morgan Owen in their last two matches with a whole host of players being unavailable, including key midfielders Jamey Osborne, Callum Maycock, and David Davis. They have conceded at least 1.8xG in each of their last three matches and their season record doesn’t bring much hope either – they have not won an away match against a side higher than 16th all season, picking up one point from eight games against those above them in the league table.

Barnet come into this having won two and drawn five of their last eight, their only poor performance coming in a 1-0 loss against York City two days after their FA Trophy semi-final penalty loss at Gateshead. Consistent selection has been an issue of late for Dean Brennan with a number of players struggling for fitness during a tricky run. However, they have been able to build from a solid base, conceding no more than one goal in each of their last eight. The returns of first-choice strikers Harry Smith and Nicke Kabamba will be welcome in improving their output in the final third.

Wrexham’s point at the weekend means they need just six from their final three games to secure a long-awaited promotion back to the Football League, and I’m backing them to get three of those here.

Wrexham are phenomenal at home. They’ve won 20 of their 21 games. They’ve scored two or more in all but two of those matches. They’ve beaten every side 10th or lower in the table by more than one goal with the exception of Maidenhead United, who they also missed a late penalty against. And they need the points here. Paul Mullin remains in fine form. Ollie Palmer is back. Luke Young is back. Anthony Forde is back. Phil Parkinson’s side is as strong as ever.

They take on a Yeovil Town side whose spirited comeback at Solihull Moors put a smile back on some faces but it has come too little too late with the side now eight points adrift of safety with three games to go. It was the first time all season they managed more than 2xG in a game but they also conceded 2.19xG and Mark Cooper had to make three changes before the second half had restarted.

The Glovers remain a mess on and off the pitch from a structural point of view and I expect Wrexham to punish that in front of another bumper crowd.

Seven defeats in a row looked to leave Southend United playing for nothing but they’ve responded positively with three wins and a draw from their last four to put them firmly back in contention for the playoffs.

Southend’s game is one of control and defensive resoluteness and they have been able to impose that game on their opposition again recently, conceding 1.1xG over their last four games and keeping three clean sheets. There has been a goal shortage in Southend United matches all season, scoring more than twice on just three occasions and conceding more than twice on four occasions. No side has scored more than twice in any of Southend’s last 11 matches with under 2.5 goals in nine of those, including each of their last six.

On another note, Collin Andeng Ndi has returned for their last five, in which they have conceded two goals. Andeng Ndi has kept 13 clean sheets in his 22 matches conceding 10.55 less than the xG he has faced, in comparison to his teammates who have conceded 24 from 26.48xG and kept five clean sheets.

Oldham Athletic are something of a chameleon when it comes to games involving goals, generally adapting to their opposition, their high-scoring games coming against Altrincham, Wrexham, Wealdstone, and Barnet in recent weeks while managing under 2.5 goals in seven of their last ten, a run that included games against Boreham Wood, Woking, Eastleigh, Dagenham and Redbridge and Maidenhead United. Their last two games have finished 2-0 and 1-0 and the returns of Magnus Norman in goal and Mark Shelton in midfield have helped solidify the spine of the team.

This second-leg tie will see Chelsea seeking to overturn a 2-0 deficit in their meeting with Real Madrid after the Spanish side took a comfortable lead at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday, but the Londoners will have their work cut out against a team who haven’t lost an away second leg knock-out tie in Europe after winning the home leg since 2017.

Instead, they could find themselves going through a similar experience to Liverpool, who fell to a frustrating 1-0 defeat in the return fixture after a 5-2 loss in the first leg. Real Madrid’s resolute defending and patience, waiting to hit Chelsea on the counter with their clinical offence, could see them end the game poorly.

Frank Lampard’s team are without a win in three and have scored only one goal in their last five, while Carlo Ancelotti will have many key players fresh for this match after making six changes to his team as they coasted to victory over Cádiz at the weekend.

The aura of Real Madrid in the Champions League means that the visitors are unlikely to accept a narrow defeat and will want to continue their good form in Europe with at least a draw, though given the vast gap in quality between the two teams in the first leg, you’d expect them to come out on top.

Internacional are the odds-on favourites to win the group and the Brazilian giants are expected to put on a show on Tuesday evening. Internacional host Venezuelan outfit Metropolitanos but it’s going to be far from a friendly welcome.

Internacional had to rely on a last-minute equaliser in Colombia last week but back on home soil against one of the weakest teams in the competition, a straightforward home win looks set to take place.

Captain Alan Patrick has scored six goals in his last six appearances and is very much the man in form. The former-Shakhtar midfielder has the perfect opportunity to add to that tally against a far inferior team, who look likely to finish their group without a victory.

It’s safe to say Internacional won’t have to get out of first gear in order to win this one but making sure they keep a clean sheet will be one of their main priorities on the night. A comfortable win is expected, but there’s plenty of value in the “both teams to score no” market which can’t be ignored.

Fluminense are very much this year’s dark horses and they proved how capable they are with a convincing 3-1 victory over Sporting Cristal in Peru.

With Marcelo making his debut on that occasion, and having scored on his home debut, the former-Real Madrid player is set to be an influential player for Fluminense in 2023.

Yet it’s the Brazilian’s striker, German Cano, who will be the man of the scoresheet again when The Strongest come to town. The Argentine has scored a ridiculous 18 goals in his last 10 matches and with Bolivian teams struggling away from home, he’ll be licking his lips at the prospect of more opportunities.

Fluminense beat Flamengo 4-1 at home last week and they are in fine form heading into this encounter. The Strongest are a shadow of themselves away from home in the competition due to a level playing field with no altitude, so expect the Bolivian club to be in all kinds of trouble in Brazil.