Despite Jesse Marsch’s success in steering Leeds away from trouble last season, the team finds themselves in a precarious position once again, just two points clear of the drop zone in the midst of a relegation scrap. With only two wins in their last 15 Premier League matches, patience among fans is running thin.

On the other hand, Brentford, under the leadership of Thomas Frank, have secured an impressive 29 points this season and are in no danger of relegation. Notable victories over Manchester United and Liverpool have solidified their position and they now set their sights on challenging for European football.

Leeds have committed 13.22 fouls per game this season. This is the most in the Premier League. They look destined for another fight against relegation and I expect them to get stuck in against a Brentford side that are flying high.

Tyler Adams has committed 14 fouls in his last 5 Premier League starts for Leeds United and he is in the top 10 for most fouls committed in the league this season. Brentford beat Leeds 5-2 earlier in the season so the home side will be out for revenge this time out. Expect the fans to be right up for this one. This should ensure fiery players like Adams get stuck in. Tyler Adams to commit 2+ fouls is also one of my European Value bets which can be found here.

Rodrigo hasn’t quite lived up to the 30m price that Leeds coughed up to Valencia back in 2020, but the Leeds striker has finally started to find the back of the net consistently. Rodrigo has 23 goals in the Premier League with 10 coming this season in 1300 minutes with half of these coming at home.

The Spaniard’s underlying numbers have always been good for bet builders as he is never shy of a pop at goal. As seen on the cheat sheet above, no one averages more shots on target and shots per game than Rodrigo. His 2.66 shots per game show how often he finds himself in a pocket of space to have a crack.

Brentford allow an incredible 5.58 shots on target against per 90 with the quicker teams able to breach their high line. Gnonto is finding exceptional form and should be able to beat Roerslev down the line, cutting it back to or drawing defenders away from Rodrigo, thus giving him more opportunity to hit the target. I have no doubts he will hit it once but I fancy 2 Shots on target @ 2.4. He had 3 against West Ham last time out.

The Bees are having a fine season and are exceptionally priced for this game. With double chance coming in at odds of 1.53, I’m backing this selection which gives us the safety blanket of Brentford only winning a point. Away from home, Brentford have played excellent counter attacking football, shown by wins at West Ham and especially Manchester City in their past two trips.

They don’t turn up on away trips to settle just for a point as they see far more of the ball. 46% possession at home jumps up to 50% on the road and against a side like Leeds I can see the midfield dictating the play and seeing plenty of the ball. Against Bournemouth in their last game, they saw around 50% possession and managed to limit their opponents to under 1xg and 2 shots on target. Leeds are a better side than Bournemouth but still average 1.78 goals against per game. I like Brentford to get one or two.