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Leeds v Middlesbrough
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Kick Off: Wednesday 14th August at 20:00
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Competition: EFL Cup
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
The 2024/25 season is up and running for both Leeds United and Middlesbrough and it was mixed emotions for them in their opening matches. Daniel Farke’s Leeds did manage to score three goals and yet they still wasn’t on the winning side and they required a last-gasp equaliser to earn a 3-3 home draw with Portsmouth. Boro on the other hand have started by claiming three points thanks to their single goal victory over Swansea City at Riverside Stadium.
Last season, The Whites would reach the Carabao Cup Second Round before succumbing to lower league Salford City on penalties. To get to that point they would surpass Shrewsbury Town in the First Round when overcoming a half time deficit to secure a 2-1 turnaround. Carrick’s side however would have a much better time of it after going all the way to the Semi-Final when Premier League giants Chelsea proved much too strong over two legs. That was their longest run in the competition since they won the trophy for the one and only time in 2003/04.
Wednesday night plays host to more EFL Cup action and our expert football betting predictions will be diving into all the action. Make sure to check out our EFL Cup (Carabao) acca tips and EFL betting tips so you don’t miss any of our coverage.
Also, we will be keeping you busy with a constant supply of expertly researched selections including our both teams to score tips, as well as predictions for all of you bet builder lovers out there, including card betting tips, player shots on target tips, and fouls betting predictions once the Premier League season kicks off.
Leeds v Middlesbrough Best Bets
The First Round of the Carabao Cup is often a time for clubs at Championship level to rotate their eleven given this is sandwiched between two league fixtures not long after the culmination of a long pre-season. The same can be expected here. Despite reaching the last four last season, Middlesbrough would only really name their best team at the Semi-Final stage.
There is more quality amongst Leeds’ alternatives outside of their starting eleven from their last match, who should all come into the team, compared to Middlesbrough. That should give them the edge here, even if making changes can often disrupt the flow and rhythm of a team, but that’ll apply for both teams. Therefore, a Leeds Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.80 with Paddy Power rates as the best betting proposition for this cup tie. Goals are also to be expected given there are plenty of recalled players on show desperate to prove a point.
At this stage of the Carabao Cup last season, 61.11% of matches featured both teams scoring, and that is despite likely heavily rotated teams. Furthermore, Farke’s side would be victorious and fail to keep a clean sheet in just under 42% of their overall wins in all competitions, and nine of those 13 times came in matches played at Elland Road.
📂 Leeds v Middlesbrough Cheat Sheet
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.
You can find even more match stats for this match on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
To make sure you’re getting the full value of the betting market, check out our list of the best betting sites for accumulators and the top bet builder sites. You can take advantage of all the latest free bet offers and weekly free bet clubs, while our collated list of the best UK sports betting sites is also worth browsing.
We are committed to helping you become better sports punters, so if you’re unfamiliar with certain betting terminologies, we have plenty of useful resources to keep you clued in such as our xG in football article, available on-site. It is also worth checking out our guide to betting on corners, as well as our advice on how to bet on the fouls won market.
📊 Leeds Form and Stats
Leeds’ start to the season did not begin as they’d have wanted after failing to beat a newly promoted opponent. It was an action-packed contest from start to finish and it also marked the first time since a 4-3 Premier League loss to Tottenham Hotspur in November 2022 when failing to win despite scoring three goals in a match.
The action would also spill across to the referee, who played his part in producing a total of six cards. A little fewer could be expected for Wednesday’s encounter however as assigned match referee Anthony Backhouse averaged 4.48 yellow cards per match in 2023/24. The case is further strengthened knowing only Bristol City collected fewer Championship yellow cards last season than The Whites.
Although promotion is the priority for United this season, the 1967/68 League Cup winners do have a strong record in relation to negotiating the first steps in this cup. Since the beginning of 2016, only in 2020/21 did they suffer defeat in their first Carabao Cup match of the campaign. In each of the last two seasons, they’ve been knocked out at the second attempt.
One thing this club loves doing is playing at Elland Road given their exceptional record here over recent times. They’ve only lost twice in front of their own supporters in all competitions since the start of the 2023/24 season. Out of these 27 encounters, a total of 18 victories were recorded. 77.77% of those would come alongside over 2.5 goals, proving that when they do win it is usually an entertaining spectacle.
📊 Middlesbrough Form and Stats
Middlesbrough already have a Championship win under their belts at the first attempt, which is a welcome relief for a team targeting promotion. It may seem too early to suggest such a thing, but last season Boro took eight matches to record their first league victory. Beating Swansea 1-0 also means they’ve kept as many clean sheets after one league game as they did after ten league fixtures in 2023/24.
Clean sheets really are a key factor in any success Carrick’s team have had and may have in the future. Extending from the previous campaign, five of Middlesbrough’s last seven league victories came without conceding. However, they are less reliable to do just that away from home. In fact, this team have retained only two shutouts out of 11 away clashes in all competitions since the beginning of 2024.
Although the club reached the final four of this competition last season, a deeper dive around those ties may slightly diminish such an achievement. That is because the only time they faced a Premier League club in this run was in the Semi-Final itself; when well beaten 6-2 on aggregate. Even still, only one of their opening five ties came against a fellow Championship opponent and that would be Huddersfield Town, who would eventually be relegated.
Continuing from last season, Boro striker Emmanuel Latte Lath is on a seven-match scoring streak, netting nine in total, which forms 56.25% of overall team goals in this period. With him likely to be rested to the bench here, it places more pressure on a player such as cover forward Josh Coburn. The 21-year-olds’ three most recent goals were all the opening goal of the game, so a fast start tends to bring the best out of him.
⚔️ Leeds v Middlesbrough Head-to-Head
Last season, Leeds and Middlesbrough played out two thrillers in the regular Championship campaign. It would be United that came out on top on each occasion; winning 3-2 at home and 4-3 away respectively. This extended their winning run in this series to four in succession.
Although they would win both encounters in 2023/24, Leeds did so despite conceding the opening goal inside the opening ten minutes. Also, within 15 minutes of falling behind they would be back ahead in the match.
They would prove to be somewhat combative affairs as well, certainly in the case of Middlesbrough considering they would collect more cards, including a red card for Anfernee Dijksteel following two yellows.
What was also interesting is that despite losing these meetings it would be Michael Carrick’s side that netted the final goal on each occasion. Interestingly, both would be scored by 25-year-old in-form Latte Lath; who recorded 16 league goals last season.
One worrying fact for Boro is that they would also concede a penalty in the two games; both of which were scored. Farke’s men would only be second to eventual champions Leicester City last season in relation to the number of penalties awarded with nine.
* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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