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Portsmouth v Leeds
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Kick Off: Sunday 9th March at 12:00
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Competition: Championship
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What TV Channel: ITV1
Leeds United travel to the south coast on Sunday lunchtime having dropped points at home for the first time since New Year’s Day.
They take on a Portsmouth side who had been steered expertly away from the relegation zone by John Mousinho.
⭐ Portsmouth v Leeds Best Bet
This may look a silly selection by the time you’re tucking in to enjoy your Sunday Roast, with Leeds the clear favourites for this game, and 37 points above Portsmouth in the table, but the 2/1 about Leeds not to win this game makes some appeal.
Firstly, Portsmouth’s home form is of top half standard. They have picked up 29 points from 17 matches at Fratton Park over the course of the season, which they started off very slowly. They didn’t win a home game until the 9th November, but since then their record is P11 W8 D2 L1 on home turf.
Leeds have picked up 31 points from their 17 away games, so only two more than Pompey have managed, and of the 17 games they have failed to win on nine occasions, so more than they have won. It’s only fair to point out that they have won their last three away games against three top ten sides, including their nearest challengers for the title, but having failed to beat West Brom at Elland Road last weekend, and Leeds history of stuttering towards the end of campaigns in the past, they may be a little more vulnerable here than they have been in recent weeks.
👕 Portsmouth v Leeds Predicted XI
🔍 Portsmouth v Leeds Players to Watch
🔵 Zak Swanson
Pompey right back Zak Swanson is enjoying the busiest season of his career so far, having made 27 appearances in all competitions. He has started the last eight games for John Mousinho’s side.
Swanson averages 1.6 fouls per 90 in the league. From his 19 starts, he has committed two or more fouls on ten occasions.
He will most likely have to contend with Junior Firpo and Manor Solomon on his side of the pitch, both of whom are fouled over 1.5 times per 90.
The generous folk at Paddy Power are offering us 3/1 about this occurring, so they give it a 25% chance of happening, whereas we know this has occurred 53% of the time Swanson has started.
⚪ Junior Firpo
Junior Firpo missed a chunk of December and January through injury, but since returning has done his best to make up for lost time.
He has started six games since returning to fitness, taking eight shots in those games, and hitting the target with three of those shots. Firpo has scored in Leeds’ last two games, both headers.
There’s obviously some recency bias in this selection, but even if you string out Firpo’s efforts on target over the whole season, he’s had six in 21 starts all in different games. That’s not reflected in the 4/1 price on offer here, which we think is too big to ignore,
📂 Portsmouth v Leeds Cheat Sheet
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💻 Portsmouth v Leeds Form and Tactics
It had been a season of two halves for Portsmouth so far, having won just two of their first 15 league games, they have won eight of their last 20
They usually operate with a 4-2-3-1, and create plenty of chances from set plays, having taken the 4th most shots. They’re not particularly interested in having the ball, with the 2nd lowest possession stats in the league. Josh Murphy is the danger man cutting in from the left hand side.
A bookmaker paid out on Leeds winning the league last week, which looked a little premature when Leeds failed to beat West Brom last weekend and Sheffield United closed the gap to three points,
They will also play with their usual 4-2-3-1, with plenty of pace in wide areas in Dan James and Manor Solomon, and full backs Bogle and Firpo bombing on.
🏁 Portsmouth v Leeds Ref Watch
- Referee – Robert Jones
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 4.58 / 0.21 |
| Fouls Given | 25.79 |
| Penalties | 0.32 |
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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