We have become accustomed to saying that Leicester are the team with the most impressive data profile when previewing their matches. However, whilst this is still the case over the course of the whole season, if one sets the limit of the data to just 2024, then, actually Leicester are down in fourth on expected points.

Leeds, Ipswich, and, Monday’s opponents Norwich, are the teams above Leicester. The Foxes are still above the Canaries in both xG and xG against in the time period, but the Canaries have actually been very consistent in the way that they have managed games since January and they “should” have won more points than Leicester.

Indeed, Norwich have won more points per game over 2024 than Leicester, which makes the odds for this match very interesting. How confident can anyone be that Leicester are the better team at the moment, even given home advantage?

Shortening the sample still further, to include only February and March, widens the gap between the two sides and demonstrates that there is little difference in their chance creation and concession at the moment.

Of course, there are still plenty of aspects of form that are in Leicester’s favour. They are running at a massive +1.4xG differential in the last 10 matches at the King Power. Even their two recent defeats against Middlesbrough and QPR saw Leicester create more big chances than their opponents.

Goals are suggested though, over 2.5 has landed in six of the combined last eight between Leicester’s home and Norwich’s away matches.

It isn’t easy to find value with the Leicester group in this match. Jamie Vardy dominated the shot count against Bristol City, but is very short for a player who is unlikely to play anything greater than 60 minutes.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is probably still the best value for Leicester, but confidence has to be shaken by the fact that he had zero shots at all on Friday, let alone on target.

Instead, Norwich’s leading centre-forward is probably the best value in the market. Sargent is averaging 1.79 shots on target per 90 so his price being close to even money suggests that he isn’t fancied to replicate that kind of return at the King Power.

We have already discussed how Norwich may be undervalued here so that makes this Sargent price quite fanciable.

The same logic, however, does not apply to Gabriel Sara. The Brazilian is probably Norwich’s 2nd biggest goal threat, but he actually averages much less than a shot on target per 90, only 0.62. This makes his price fairly unpalatable in comparison to Sargent so the American is the main recommendation.

If Norwich can get themselves a foothold in this match, then they should be able to earn themselves some joy in the corner market.

In general, the universal truth of home teams having the advantage in this market does seem to hold. Leicester average 6.67 corners at home, conceding only 4.06 on average. This is a fairly sizeable gap and it is fairly surprising that the Foxes aren’t actually stronger favourites in the match bet market.

Especially so when considering that Norwich also hold up the same pattern in their away matches. The Canaries average 4.37 corners away from Carrow Road, conceding just over 6.

However, considering that we suspect that Norwich might outperform their odds, getting with them on one of the lower lines should also be a genuine consideration.

Norwich will need to establish a physical presence in the match, and that is exactly what Ashley Barnes provides for them.

The former Burnley Premier League forward plays a more withdrawn role these days, so he gets involved in the midfield battle as well as his more traditional aerial duels and physical match-ups against central defenders.

Barnes committed five fouls in his last fixture against Plymouth, his highest of the season. He only needs one or two to make our bet builders come off.

On the other side it could be worthwhile backing Ricardo Pereira. The Portuguese is undoubtedly one of the best full-backs in the league, but he also averages a foul a match. He is more generously priced than most of his teammates, especially when one considers that he has committed at least one foul in seven of their last eight matches, 12 fouls in total in those eight.