Angers v Ajaccio
Angers’s home encounter with Ajaccio will not be a classic. It’s a match that pits two teams in the relegation battle against each other and is likely to be an ugly affair, with little quality football played.
Certainly, the odds on the home team getting the win are unappealing given that they have lost their last 12 Ligue 1 matches on the bounce. Indeed, Ajaccio have been in better form than their hosts, despite losing their last four, and odds on them either drawing or winning at 1.62 therefore look reasonable value.
But a lack of goals looks the best bet here, with odds of 1.6 on under 2.5. Both attacks are hit by injury problems. Key Ajaccio forwards Romain Hamouma and Yoann Touzghar are expected to miss out, and though Mounaim El Idrissy and Youcef Belaili returned against Lyon at the weekend, both looked rusty. The Corsicans are not prolific scorers at the best of times, with just 16 goals netted in 20 games.
Angers’ problems are even worse. It appears that star attacker Sofiane Boufal is unlikely to play this game, while there are doubts over regular centre forward Abdallah Sima after he was missing from the weekend’s 4-0 loss in Brest. Like their guests, Angers are also averaging less than a goal scored per game.
After these sides played out a grim 1-0 that favoured Ajaccio in a midweek match at the end of December, expect a similar outcome in this fixture.
Reims v Lorient
Reims received a great deal of credit following their 1-1 draw against PSG at the weekend, but backing that up against Lorient is liable to be a difficult challenge for Will Still’s side.
The hosts come into this match undefeated in their last 14 games in all competitions, but it is worth pointing out that against Ligue 1 opponents, they have only won four of their last 12. Eight have ended in draws. Of their victories, three have come against clubs in the bottom half of the table.
Perhaps the biggest problem facing the home team in this game, though, is the turnaround between matches. They were involved in the last kick-off slot at the weekend, finishing their game nearly 48 hours after Lorient recorded a shock win over Rennes at home. This recovery time could make an impact given that Reims put so much into their weekend match, scoring a 95th-minute equaliser.
Lorient, meanwhile, have been good travellers this season, suffering only two defeats from 10 road trips to date. They will have taken heart from the manner of their victory at the weekend, which was achieved without Terem Moffi ahead of a likely January move, yet the business that they have conducted suggests they will continue to challenge towards the top of the Ligue 1 table for the remainder of the season.
These sides played out a scoreless draw in Brittany in October, while Lorient have lost only one of their last eight against the Champagne club. Look for them to extend that record.
Montpellier v PSG
With just one win in their last four Ligue 1 matches, it’s been a tough period for PSG, who were held to a 1-1 draw against Reims at the weekend, notably conceding in the 95th minute of the match. It was not just the score that was disappointing, though, it was the whole performance.
Expect a reaction from the league leaders on Wednesday when they travel to Montpellier, who have been among their favourite opponents in recent years. PSG have won their last seven league matches against La Paillade – all of which have been achieved by more than a single goal. Indeed, nine of the last 10 league meetings between these clubs have brought a PSG win by at least two goals, while 90% of these fixtures have also seen at least four goals in the game.
PSG should continue that run against Romain Pitau’s side. Although Montpellier won in Auxerre at the weekend, they did not do so convincingly and that result comes off the back of conceding 11 in three matches against Marseille, Nice and Nantes at the start of 2023.
Montpellier will be without a couple of their most important players in the form of Elye Wahi and Wahbi Khazri. On top of this, just how fit defensive midfielder Jordan Ferri is after missing the weekend’s game due to illness is yet to be determined.
PSG may elect to rotate to some extent here, but they should have plenty to get the job done. They could go out and try to kill the game off in the first half – they are 1.83 to be winning at half-time and full-time – but the safer bet appears to be backing them with a -1 handicap, which is a repeated winner when these teams meet.
Rennes v Strasbourg
Rennes’ home meeting with Strasbourg is a fixture that promises to be an entertaining one, with goals likely. Indeed, the home side have been formidable at Roazhon Park since a 1-0 aberration against Lorient on the opening day of the season, winning nine successive games since then and scoring 24 goals in the process.
Odds of 1.62 on Rennes getting the victory here are perhaps a little slim given they have lost three of their last four, but equally these losses have been away from home. Instead, it is worth backing over 2.5 goals in this game – an outcome that has been a winner in eight of Rennes’ 10 fixtures in front of their home supporters in Ligue 1.
Martin Terrier’s absence will certainly hinder the home team offensively, but they still managed to produce an xG of above 2 in Friday’s 2-1 loss against Lorient, showing that chances are still being created.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, leak goals horribly. In their last 13 Ligue 1 matches, they have conceded at least two goals on 11 occasions. Equally, though, the Alsace side are relatively prolific and have scored at least one goal in 12 of their last 13. Admittedly, Ludovic Ajorque has been sold and Kevin Gameiro is banned here, but they remain a team liable to find the net.
Earlier this season, Rennes won 3-1 in Strasbourg, while the other meeting between these sides in the last 12 months finished 2-1 in favour of Racing. Expect the hosts to win this one, with goals looking good value.
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