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Luton v AFC Wimbledon Bet Builder Tips, Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Luton v AFC Wimbledon Bet Builder Tips, Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Wednesday 30 July, 20253 min read
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The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

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From the Premier League to League One in two seasons is a continuation of the nomadic existence of Luton Town, but can they begin their task to return to the Championship with a win against AFC Wimbledon, themselves newly promoted from League Two.

Luton v AFC Wimbledon Bet Builder Tips
  • Luton v AFC Wimbledon
  • League One
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 3.20

Millenic Alli to have 3+ Shots

The Exeter City signing from January had a stellar end to last season. He averaged 2.61 shots per 90 in the Championship when he got his chance in the team following his move in January, and many of those minutes were from a left wing-back position.

It is likely that he will play further forward this season, but he should be available to fill in at left wing-back if required, but this shouldn’t spell doom for this bet at all.

Alli still averaged over two shots per 90 in League One last season for an Exeter City side which were somewhat shot shy. He also averaged 2.24 shots per 90 at this level in 2023/24, albeit that was from a very small sample size of 404 minutes.

He was very consistent with his shot taking in the last five matches of last season, hitting exactly 2 in his last four matches and then four against Blackburn. In a lower standard of league and more dominant territory here this could easily rise.

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Luton to Win

Opening day data (link here) suggests that clubs coming down from the Championship and play at home on opening day tend to do well. Former Championship teams have won 60% of their opening day fixtures in the last five years, and this increases to 67% when playing at home. On paper, this is the easiest opening day fixture that any of those teams have had.

Luton had a decent home record despite relegation last season, they lost only one of their last seven home matches in the league.

The only other time in the last five years that a former Championship club and former League Two club met on opening day was in 2020 when Charlton defeated Crewe 2-0 at Gresty Road.

Despite Luton losing some players in the close season, they still retain a first XI of Championship quality, and Matt Bloomfield showed at the back end of last season that he could get results at a higher level with these players.

Over 6.5 Luton Corners

Luton finished last season with the third highest record for number of corners won per match in the Championship.

This record was particularly strong at home with many matches stretching into double figure numbers for corners won at Kenilworth Road.

Their last five league matches at home read 18, 3, 9, 0 (vs Leeds), and 9. Whilst this may seem somewhat hit and miss, Leeds restricted so many teams to very few corners, Leeds actually finished the season conceding only 3 corners per match on average.

Luton play direct football, getting the ball into the final third quickly and with pace. This generally tends to lead to more corners and with Wimbledon expected to provide a deep block, there will be a lot of action in the Luton attacking third.

Wimbledon should also provide stubborn opposition, so there is a chance of a fairly frustrating period of stalemate. This often leads to a period of pressure that encourages corners as well.

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The question for Matt Bloomfield is whether we will see a continuation of his Luton tactics from their Championship season. I suspect that we will, as, actually Luton became incredibly effective in the latter stages of the season, indeed they collected the third highest number of points in the league in the run-in last term.

Wimbledon are highly likely to go 3-4-3, which will spend most of the match being a 5-4-1 system. The loss of both starting wing-backs from the League Two play-off final is going to hurt in this opening match as they haven’t yet adequately replaced them.

📂 Luton Town v AFC Wimbledon Cheat Sheet

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📈 Luton Town v AFC Wimbledon Form & Tactics

Luton's tactics last season were a general 3-4-3 system, but with narrow wide forwards to allow the width to come from the wing-backs when in possession. Luton have lost Alfie Doughty and Amari’i Bell, who were the usual left wing-backs, but one temptation may be to use Millenic Alli in that position and go for an attacking outlook in League One.

Nakhi Wells has been brought in to spearhead the attack, and George Saville is adding more experience and quality to central midfield. Meanwhile, Mark McGuinness will be a central defensive colossus at this level.

This is Johnnie Jackson’s second bite at League One level, and he will be hoping that everything he has learned in League Two will help him this time around.

Jackson had Wimbledon playing a low-margin, solid defensive style, absolutely encaptured in their play-off campaign which saw Wimbledon win 1-0 in all three matches. If they are to survive in this league, it will be built on a solid defence, but will that be enough to keep out Luton here?

🏁 Ref Watch

Thomas Parsons

  • Parsons is a young referee; this will be his third season in the EFL

  • From his 27 matches officiated at League One level, he averages 4.7 yellow cards per match

  • Interestingly, he also averages a penalty given every three matches, a very high rate. This could be worth a small wager given how often Luton and Wimbledon play directly into the penalty area

📊 Luton Town v AFC Wimbledon Key Stats

  • New Luton signing Nakhi Wells had a 46% shot accuracy rate last season, the average for this is usually 30-35%, so he could be a good bet in the shots on target market.

  • Despite being relegated, Luton ended last season with a winning home record, winning nine, losing seven.

  • Last season Luton finished 21st for accurate passes per match, but 5th for accurate long balls per match, so we can expect a lot of final third actions for Luton this season.

  • Last time Wimbledon were in League One, they lost 14 of their 23 away matches.

  • Last season, Wimbledon had by far the best defensive record in League Two, conceding only 35 goals in 49 league matches. They will be doing their best not to be blown away here.

  • Wimbledon were second in League Two per fouls per match last season, angling some wagers towards fouls against Luton or total free-kicks could be a shrewd move.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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