Burnley have an excellent recent record against Luton, which is highlighted by the fact that they have not lost any of their last four matches against the Hatters. The visitors have also picked up victories in each of their last two trips to Kenilworth Road, with 1-0 and 2-1 victories over the last couple of seasons.

The visitors will benefit from having the element of surprise in their favour. A lack of friendly matches from Scott Parker’s side will have made them very difficult for Luton to study. Meanwhile, the continuity of Rob Edwards’ group should mean that the home side lineup in familiar manner, making them easier to play against tactically.

Luton are beset by injury problems in their defence. Teden Mengi, Amari’i Bell, Mads Andersen and Reece Burke, plus Tom Lockyer are all set to miss out. That means it will largely be a second string rearguard in place for the hosts, who have questions hanging over their strength in depth.

South African striker Lyle Foster was one of only two players who managed shots on target in each of the two matches between these clubs last season, while he also posted 0.76 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League.

The former Monaco striker is well placed to be lively for the duration of this game. He has enjoyed a full pre-season and this make him likelier to pick up significant minutes in this match. Zeki Amdouni was Burnley’s other player to manage shots on target in both games of this fixture last term, but he has only just returned to training after Euro 2024 and has fewer minutes in his legs.

Only Zeki Amdouni (21) had more total shots on target than Foster (16) last season in the Premier League for a team managed by Vincent Kompany, and his influence is unlikely to diminish under Parker.

Luton’s defensive crisis should ensure that Foster is playing against weaker defenders he is better able to take advantage of.

As he was last season, Alfie Doughty will be expected to contribute heavily in an attacking sense. He comes into this game buoyed by having scored in each of Luton’s last two friendly matches against Dundee United and Celta Vigo.

Despite being a defender on paper at least, Doughty ranked fifth among Luton players for shots on target in the Premier League last season, mustering 0.25 per game. He ranked in the 68th percentile among full-back for shots last term, even with Luton ultimately proving to be out of their depth in the top flight.

At a lower level, he will expect that figure to rise significantly, particularly given the offensive mindset it appears he has been told to play with. It took him only two minutes to get a shot on target against Celta, for example.

Doughty posted an impressive 0.41 shots on target per 90 during Luton’s previous stay in the Championship – a figure Rob Edwards will expect him to threaten again this season.

Carlton Morris is expected to spearhead Luton’s attack in this encounter, and it would come as no surprise if he were to commit at least a couple of fouls.

Luton’s number 9 tended to find himself in the thick of the battle last season in the Premier League. He led Luton on 49 fouls committed and ranked third in terms of fouls won. On average, he committed 1.54 fouls per 90 in the league in 2023/24.

Morris also has some history against Burnley. Last season, he gave away a total of three fouls over the course of the 107 minutes he played against the Clarets. This worked out to an incredibly high 2.54 fouls per 90, so the Englishman looks good value for multiple fouls here.

The Luton striker will likely find himself up against Maxime Estève, who won 1.1 fouls per 90 last season in the Premier League with Burnley, an impressive showing from centre-back.

Among Burnley players in the Premier League last season, only Sander Berge committed more fouls than Josh Brownhill’s 38. The 27-year-old did so at a higher rate than the Norway star however, committing 1.52 fouls per 90.

In Burnley’s away trip to Luton last season, the midfield area was a real scrap, although Burnley got the better of it on that occasion. Despite this, Brownhill still gave up two free kicks in that game – the only member of his side to give up multiple free kicks in either of their matches against the Hatters last term.

Burnley’s number 8 is likely to find himself in direct competition with Tahith Chong, who won 2.91 fouls per 90 last season – easily the highest figure in the home side. Brownhill is Luton’s captain and, when he starts, invariably plays 85 minutes and, generally, the full match, so there is likely to be plenty of time for this leg of the bet builder to land.