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Lyon v Marseille Bet Builder Tips

Lyon v Marseille Bet Builder Tips

Saturday 21 September, 20241 min read
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Robin Bairner

Robin is a specialist in Scottish and French football and has been with us since 2022. He loves championing the young talent that Ligue 1 produces on a seemingly perpetual basis as well as the chaos of the unique world of SPFL football. He is currently based in central Scotland and can be found weekly taking in games and rating pies at windswept venues across the country.

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Lyon v Marseille Bet Builder Tips

The action in Ligue 1 concludes this weekend with a clash between two giants of French football, Lyon and Marseille. Our Ligue 1 expert has crafted two bet builders, level 1 is priced at 3/1, with level 2 at 9/1.

3/1 Lyon v Marseille Bet Builder Level 1

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9/1 Lyon v Marseille Bet Builder Level 2

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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip

🏆 Marseille (+1 handicap)

📈 Odds: 1.36

Roberto De Zerbi’s Marseille have caught the eye in Ligue 1 this season thanks to a run of form that has seen them secure 10 points from their first four matches. Marseille have won away fixtures against Brest (5-1) and Toulouse (3-1) with a strong degree of comfort already. They did not generate a large xG in previous away game in Toulouse, but there was little need for them to get out of second gear after scoring twice in the first 20 minutes of the game, while TFC went down to 10 men before half an hour was played. Lyon have shown little of the form that saw them narrowly miss out on European football this season thanks to a terrific run in the back half of last term. They have just one win in four matches. The home side have been dreadful at giving up scoring opportunities. With 8xGA, they rank as the fourth-worst side in the league when it comes to giving up chances to their opponents.

🚀 Lyon corner match bet

📈 Odds: 1.91

Lyon might be struggling offensively in the early part of this season in terms of finding goals, but one aspect of the game in which they are not having any problems in is winning corner kicks. OL sit second in Ligue 1 for corners won this season through the opening four matches of the season with 24 in total. They have won at least seven in three of their four league outings. This comes in sharp contrast to Marseille, who for all their offensive cutting edge have won desperately few corners. OM have just six to their name this season at an average of 1.5 per match and are the only team yet to reach double figures in this capacity this season. Lyon have won the corner battle in each of their last two league outings. Marseille have lost this same fight in three of their four Ligue 1 games.

🎯 Mason Greenwood to have 1+ shots on target

📈 Odds: 1.25

Mason Greenwood has been Marseille’s go-to attacking player this season, with the former Manchester United winger leading the team in terms of both shots and shots on target. He is hitting 3 shots per 90, with 1.5 of these hitting the target. Greenwood has been particularly adept at playing away from home in Marseille’s first two away games of the season. He has scored two goals in both of these encounters. Prior to last weekend’s derby match against Nice, Greenwood had managed at least two shots on target in each of his competitive outings for Marseille. Still managed two shots in that encounter, and given he is averaging 50% shooting accuracy might have expected one of these to have hit the target. Very likely to play the full 90 minutes, thereby maximising his opportunities to get a shot away at goal. He has missed only a minute of Ligue 1 football so far this season, withdrawn last weekend against Nice when the match was already secured.

🛑 Abner Vinicius to commit 1+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.30

Abner is likely to be the player charged with keeping Greenwood quiet, and it is likely to be a complicated evening for the Brazilian. All of Lyon’s defenders have been prone to giving away free kicks, with the new arrival having committed six fouls at a rate of 1.82 per 90. He has committed each of his fouls in Lyon home matches. Gave away four against Monaco, who are a team of comparable standard to Marseille, and then two against Strasbourg before being taken off after an hour while on a yellow card. Greenwood leads Marseille in terms of fouls drawn with six. The one-cap England international had picked up two fouls in each match prior to not drawing a single one against Nice last weekend, but the evidence suggests that is an anomaly. OM may show an increased bias to attacking down the right in this game given that usual left wing-back Quentin Merlin is out injured. This means that Greenwood could see more of the ball, and given his direct running style, increases the prospect of him being fouled in a one-on-one with Abner.

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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip

🏆 Marseille to win

📈 Odds: 2.10

With three wins from four matches, Marseille are being considered as a genuine title challenger to PSG following significant summer investment and they have lived up to this billing early in the season. Shown they are strong away from home already this season by winning both fixtures away from the Velodrome this season by comfortable margins. Have scored 12 goals from just 6.9xG, and against a Lyon team that is routinely giving their opponents more than 2xG (three times in four matches), if Marseille continue to show this type of ruthlessness in front of goal, they will thrive. Lyon’s most serious test this season was a home match against Monaco, a team of similar standard to Marseille. They were beaten 2-0 in that encounter and generated just one low-percentage shot. Shows that OL still have a good deal of work to do to reach the level of Ligue 1’s best. Although Lyon won the last fixture between these clubs, Marseille had picked up three successive wins prior to that.

🟨 Over 3.5 match cards

📈 Odds: 1.40

Although neither Marseille nor Lyon are among the most prolific teams in Ligue 1 when it comes to picking up cards, they combined for an average of four per match so far in France’s top-flight this season. OM account for ten of the 16 these teams have received this term. This will be a match played in a heated atmosphere, with the expectation from the home fans that Lyon will really get stuck into their rivals after a poor sequence of results. Likely to generate a higher-than-usual number of fouls and cards as a consequence. He has shown at least four cards in seven of his last eight Ligue 1 games. Referee Benoit Bastien has seen drama follow him around this season. He has shown five cards in each of the two Ligue 1 matches he has overseen so far, including Marseille’s trip to Brest, a fixture in which he gave three penalties. Bastien averaged 4.16 cards per game in Ligue 1 last season. He actually oversaw this very fixture, brandishing three cards, but the context and actors in this game is very different to the fixture in February.

🛑 Geoffrey Kondogbia to commit 2+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.83

Kondogbia stands third among Marseille’s most prolific criminals this season when players who have featured in more than a single full game are taken into account. The midfielder has committed five fouls at a rate of 1.72 per 90. He has committed two fouls in each of the two Ligue 1 games he has played 90 minutes in. He also gave away a foul in the 3-0 win in Toulouse but was withdrawn from that match after 85 minutes. Liable to get the duration of this fixture given its importance. Two of Lyon’s most prolific foul winners operate in the same central midfield area as Kondogbia. Corentin Tolisso and Maxence Caqueret have both picked up five fouls so far this season, the former doing so at a rate of 2.63 per 90 minutes. The Marseille midfielder is, therefore, going to find himself up against players adept at winning free kicks.

🎯 Luis Henrique to have 1+ shots on target

📈 Odds: 1.57

Luis Henrique has been quietly establishing himself as one of Marseille’s regular starters under new head coach Roberto De Zerbi, who has given the Brazilian winger a new lease of life at Stade Velodrome. This has been reflected in the increased impact that he has enjoyed for the first team, starting all four matches this season and only being taken off in games that are being won. It was notable he played the duration of the 2-2 draw against Reims at home, showing that he is a player that De Zerbi counts on and trusts. Luis Henrique has managed four shots on target already this season at a rate of 1.11 per 90. This is second among Marseille players who have featured in more than 90 minutes behind only Mason Greenwood, whose odds are far shorter. With Greenwood and Neal Maupay through the centre liable to get much of the attention, Henrique will be hoping to fly under the radar to have another notable impact. Lyon very susceptible to attacks down their right. Amine Gouiri had seven shots for Rennes playing as a left-side forward, Eliesse Ben Seghir six for Monaco, Sebastian Nanasi two (including a goal) for Strasbourg, while even Lens left wing-back Deiver Machado had a shot on target last weekend.

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