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Man City v Burnley Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Man City v Burnley Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Thursday 25 September, 20253 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

Man City welcome Burnley to the Etihad on Saturday, with the Cityzens on a run of four games unbeaten across all competitions. Below are my two best bets.

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Man City v Burnley Quick Preview Tips
  • Man City v Burnley
  • Premier League
  • 15:00
2 Selections @ 2.24

Over 2.5 Man City Goals

Man City have a dominant record against Burnley in recent seasons when the Clarets have been in the Premier League. Guardiola’s side have won each of the last five head-to-head meetings in the Premier League at the Etihad, by an aggregate scoreline of 20-1. 

Burnley built a reputation for maintaining a stubborn rearguard in the Championship last season, but that has already unravelled this term. The Clarets conceded 16 goals across the entirety of the Championship season last year, but have already conceded eight goals in the Premier League across the opening five matches - conceding 3+ goals in their away trips to Man United and Tottenham.

Man City have picked up some form in recent weeks, with wins against Man United and Napoli, as well as earning a point on the road against Arsenal. Pep looks to be building towards a more settled side with the likes of Doku, Foden and Haaland starting to hit a rich vein of form, which can help City score a few goals here.

Burnley to Commit 9+ Fouls

Burnley have committed 9+ fouls in four of their five Premier League matches this season. The exception came on the opening weekend of the season against Tottenham, where Scott Parker’s side committed eight fouls, just one short of the line we require here.

Burnley will have to be aggressive if they want to avoid being blown away here. They committed 12 fouls against Nottingham Forest last time out and they are likely to finish around that total again here. Man City have won 60 fouls across their five Premier League matches this season (12.0 per game), with their opposition committing at least nine fouls in four of these games.

When looking at areas of the pitch where fouls could stack up for Burnley here, the wide areas and midfield stand out. We can expect the Clarets to operate in a low block, which should bring the best out of City.

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🔵 Etihad Fortress Remains Key as Guardiola’s Side Find Form

Man City have picked up some form since the international break. The weeks before the break were a bit of a disaster for Guardiola, as his side fell to back to back defeats against Tottenham and Brighton.

They’ve recovered in recent weeks to pick up wins against Man United and Napoli, and pick up a point at Arsenal. The game at the Emirates was really one that they should have won, with Guardiola reverting to a 5-4-1 at the end of the game to try and stop Arsenal scoring.

City only lost three games at the Etihad in the Premier League last season, so it can still be considered a stronghold and a ground that is really tough to take any kind of result from, especially as a promoted side. 

The performances of Jeremy Doku have been particularly impressive to me in the opening weeks of the season. He looks like a player who is maturing, which is bad news for the rest of the Premier League, because he has all the raw attributes to be a fantastic winger.


🟣 Burnley’s Resilient Performances Yet to Translate Into Points

I thought Burnley had a good chance of staying up coming into the season, purely due to their stubborn defensive set up. However, they have struggled in the early weeks of the season, with just one win from their opening five matches, which was against Sunderland at Turf Moor. 

Burnley have already conceded eight goals in the Premier League this season, to put this into context, the Clarets only conceded 16 goals across the entirety of the Championship season last campaign, underlining the gap in quality between the two divisions. 

Burnley’s points total doesn’t tell the whole story; they’ve lost in games against Man United and Liverpool to last-minute penalties after producing valiant performances in those games, and earned a point at Turf Moor against Forest last time out. 

The newly promoted sides are already putting up more of a fight than the sides that came up last year, but Burnley will need to turn their positive performances in points quickly, or risk getting cut off in the lower reaches of the Premier League table.


📊 Man City v Burnley H2H

The most recent meeting between these sides was back in January 2024 and saw City run out 3-1 winners.

Burnley have a turgid record at the Etihad in the Premier League era - they’ve lost each of the last five head-to-head clashes by an aggregate scoreline of 20-1.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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