This should be relatively straightforward for Manchester City as they attempt to move level with Arsenal on points for the first time this year. Pep Guardiola’s side have won each of their last four games across all competitions, taking on Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal twice in this period. 

This selection would have landed in three of those games as City won to nil, only conceding via a freak moment from Donnarumma, which Havertz capitalised on. They have a dominant record in the Premier League against Burnley as well, winning 5-1 when the sides met at the Etihad earlier in the season and netting 3+ goals in each of the last three head-to-head meetings between these sides.

Burnley slumped to a 4-1 defeat against Nottingham Forest last time out, a game in which they actually managed to get in front, showing that even if Burnley do manage to get on the scoresheet here, Manchester City’s incredible firepower should see them over the line to win by at least two goals. 

Burnley committed seven fouls at the Etihad when these sides met earlier in the campaign, but City have added a few new players since then, which can help the Clarets get to the 10+ foul mark we need from them in this clash.

I don’t think Burnley will be too competitive here; they’re already pretty much guaranteed to face the drop and haven’t beaten City in over 10 Premier League matches, conceding 3+ goals in each of the last three head-to-head meetings. This is the perfect recipe for frustration to creep in, especially in front of a Turf Moor crowd that is likely sick of watching this team slump to defeat every week. 

Burnley are averaging exactly 10.0 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season, so we just need them to match their average across the season - and there are a few individuals for Pep Guardiola’s side who can help us get over the line for this particular selection:

• Jeremy Doku - 3.03 fouls won p/90

• Rayan Cherki - 1.84 fouls won p/90

• Matheus Nunes - 0.99 fouls won p/90

• Marc Guehi - 0.93 fouls won p/90

Nico O’Reilly was one of the best players on the pitch in Manchester City’s 2-1 win over Arsenal at the weekend, getting the assist for the second goal as he set up Erling Haaland to move Manchester City to within three points of Arsenal ahead of this assignment.

O’Reilly has registered eight goal contributions across his 25 starts in the Premier League this season. Only Foden, Cherki, Semenyo, and Haaland have registered more goal contributions in the top flight than O’Reilly, so it’s obvious that he’s a reliable shot threat for City in games like this.

O’Reilly has been ghosting into the box to join Haaland of late when City have been met with a low block. This has been an effective way for Guardiola to break down low blocks, with most of the focus usually being on Haaland, creating that space for O’Reilly to attack. He’s taken 32 shots across his 25 starts (1.26 per 90), and has notably had 80 touches in the opposition box (3.15 per 90).

Jeremy Doku was fouled twice within the first two minutes of City’s win over Arsenal last time out. He drew six fouls in total during the game, torturing Mosquera at every opportunity - also drawing a yellow card from the out-of-position Arsenal right back.

Doku was fouled twice when these sides met earlier in the season, a game that Manchester City won 5-1, with Doku also managing to get his direct opponent, Kyle Walker, booked in that clash. Doku is one of the best players in the league when 1v1 against his opponent, he’s so quick and pretty much impossible to stop if he slows you down and then bursts away - a trick he often opted for against Arsenal.

Across the season as a whole, Doku has drawn 47 fouls across just 15 Premier League starts (3.03 per 90). This is a very impressive average to maintain over this many starts, even for a player like Doku who usually wins at least two fouls in every Premier League game he features in.

Manchester City tend to have fun in this fixture. They scored five goals when these sides met earlier in the season, and have seen 4+ goals in three of their last four head-to-head meetings against Burnley, stretching back to 2023.

Goal difference could end up being crucial in deciding the title, and City need to take advantage of games like this to ensure that they can still close to Arsenal in terms of goal difference, which is one area where Arsenal may have a slight edge on City due to how impressive their defensive setup is.

Manchester City could easily cover this line on their own. Forest put four goals past Burnley last week at the City Ground - though Burnley did manage to get on the scoresheet themselves. There is a small chance of the Clarets contributing to the goal count again here, probably when the game is long settled, as I expect City to establish a more than commanding lead pretty comfortably. 

Rayan Cherki has been an absolute joke since properly breaking into the Manchester City side and is now neat enough to be the first name on the team sheet, replacing Foden as the player operating just in behind Erling Haaland.

He scored against Arsenal last time out with a brilliant goal, using his fast feet to skip past Saliba and slot past Raya. That was his fourth goal of the season across 16 starts, which is an ok return, but what really stands out with Cherki is his assist record.

He’s registered 10 assists across just 1469 minutes of football in the Premier League this season (0.61 per 90). It’s a small sample size, but this is comparable to the creative ability of Kevin De Bruyne - and only Bruno Fernandes has set up more goals in the Premier League this season than Cherki (18), so he’s keeping really elite company.

His underlying numbers are strong too, creating 46 chances across these games (2.82 per 90), propelling him into the standings as one of the best creators in the league - despite playing far fewer minutes than any of the other players in the list. 

Marc Guehi is surprisingly good at winning fouls for a centre back, averaging just under 1.0 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season - bringing him alongside the likes of Konsa and Tarkowski as one of the strongest centre backs when it comes to drawing challenges.

Guehi was fouled once in Manchester City’s win over Arsenal at the weekend, faced up by Kai Havertz, who was often left to chase down lost causes on his own. Guehi will be faced by a similar striker here in Zian Flemming, who will be at the head of a nasty low block from Burnley, making him likely to commit fouls as the only real outlet for the Clarets.

Flemming has committed 38 fouls across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season (2.51 per 90). He committed four fouls against Forest last time out, and also drew three fouls himself - showing how Flemming will be an active opponent for Guehi here, and be in situations where he can haul down the Manchester City man on at least two occasions.