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Man City v Napoli 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Man City v Napoli 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Tuesday 16 September, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Napoli travel to the Etihad to take on Manchester City in their opening Champions League game of the season.

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Man City v Napoli Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Man City v Napoli
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 3.00

Both Teams to Score

Napoli saw BTTS last time out as they ran out 3-1 winners over Fiorentina to take their early-season form to three wins from three matches. They’ve scored six goals across these games, and that goal they conceded against Fiorentina was the first they’ve let in this season, though I expect that to change here.

Manchester City have scored eight goals across their opening four Premier League matches this season, but have only managed to keep two clean sheets - against two sides that have started the season really poorly in Manchester United and Wolves.

Napoli will test Manchester City’s backline a lot more regularly with the likes of De Bruyne, McTominay, and Hojlund. I’m still not convinced that Manchester City’s backline is rock solid, and I still also anticipate a bit of a bedding-in process for Donnarumma, which could lead to some mistakes at the back for the Cityzens.

Scott McTominay to have 1+ Shots

McTominay has already scored his first goal of this campaign having won the Scudetto and Serie A MVP last season. He’s an integral member of this Napoli side and can return to Manchester to hurt his old city rivals.

McTominay has had nine shots across his three Serie A appearances this season (3.01 per 90). He’s regularly pushed up into attacking areas by Antonio Conte who sees McTominay as a second striker which is probably his best position when considering his ability to arrive in the box at the right time and aerial dominance.

McTominay had 76 shots across his 34 Serie A appearances last season (2.33 per 90) with this record returning 12 goals for the Scot. Napoli can look to be direct to McTominay and Hojlund when they get opportunities to push up the pitch which should see McTominay be able to get a shot away.

Phil Foden to have 1+ Shots on Target

Foden was back to his best in the Manchester derby, a game in which he routinely puts his best foot forward. Foden is a player who is capable of being one of the best in the Premier League, but needs to recapture some of the form that guided him to the Premier League player of the year award a few years ago.

I’m confident that the Manchester derby can act as a catalyst for Foden to produce his best form for City. He’s got an opportunity to nail down a starting spot in the side with Rayan Cherki out injured for the next few weeks. This should motivate Foden, who had two shots against United last time out, with one of these attempts ending up in the back of the net.

Foden only scored seven goals in the Premier League last season, averaging 0.81 shots on target per 90 across his 28 appearances in the competition. However, the season prior, Foden scored 19 Premier League goals and had 48 shots on target across his 35 Premier League appearances (1.51 per 90).

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Man City v Napoli Best Longshot Bets
  • Man City v Napoli
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 17.00

Erling Haaland to Score Anytime

Haaland has been in fine form in the early parts of the season, as he often is, with his latest achievement being a brace against Manchester United to help City to a 3-0 victory over the Red Devils at the weekend.

That brace took his tally to five goals across his four Premier League appearances this season. 

Haaland has also been active for Norway over the international break, scoring against Finland and then notching five goals against Moldova.

You really don’t want to be facing up against Erling Haaland when he is in this kind of form, with the 25-year-old proving effective in the Champions League in previous seasons. 

Haaland scored eight goals across his nine appearances in the Champions League last season with the forward scoring 31 goals overall. 

He scored six goals across his nine appearances in the Champions League in the 23/24 season but his most notable campaign in the competition came in the 22/23 season, where he scored 12 goals across his 11 appearances. 

Kevin De Bruyne to have 1+ Shots on Target

De Bruyne still has the quality to perform in these games; he was let go by City as it wasn’t really sustainable to keep him around with the volume and intensity of games that City have to contest, given his age and wages.

De Bruyne has already scored two goals for Napoli, coming across his three appearances for the Italian club. He’s had six shots across these games (2.25 per 90) with three of these efforts finding the target (1.12 per 90).

De Bruyne scored just four Premier League goals for Manchester City last season but his shot volume was consistently high. He had 57 shots across his 19 starts (3.01 per 90) with 18 of these efforts finding the target (0.95 per 90).

Rodri to be Shown a Card

Rodri looked assured in Manchester City’s 3-0 win over Manchester United last time out. He wasn’t really tested in the game as United didn’t offer any sort of threat until the 60th minute, Rodri was taken off just before the 80 minute mark so it’s not that surprising that he didn’t commit a foul or receive a card in the game - there were zero cards produced in the Manchester derby which tells you a little about the state of that rivalry at the moment.

Rodri is always the most likely City player to commit fouls and pick up cautions. He is the player tasked with the job of two players in protecting City’s backline and being the genesis of City’s build-up. 

This is why City struggled without Rodri in the side, you effectively have to replace Rodri with two players if you want to sustain the qualities he brings to this very specific setup under Guardiola.

Rodri didn’t play much at all last season due to injury, but he did receive eight yellow cards and one red card across his 34 Premier League appearances during the 23/24 season.

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📂 Man City v Napoli Cheat Sheet

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📈 Man City v Napoli & Tactics

Manchester City have made an inconsistent start to the season with two defeats and two wins from their opening four games. 

I still think that there is reason to be concerned about City’s backline, it’s not secure, and the games that they’ve won this season against Manchester United and Wolves didn’t really see the backline tested.

They’ll face a much greater test in the league phase of the Champions League. City really struggled in the league phase last season and had to come back against Club Brugge on the final matchday to even sneak into the round of 32 stage. 

This did coincide with their poor form in the middle of last season, so it is a bit harsh to judge them by that performance alone, but it certainly is more of a challenge than the previous group stage used to be for City.

When it comes to players to keep an eye on, Haaland has been in tremendous goalscoring form over the last few weeks, but the performances of Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden have stood out for me - both look to be building to some real solid form.

Napoli have started their defence of the Scudetto with three wins from their opening three matches, scoring six goals across these games and conceding just one. 

Antonio Conte has always been a manager who is much better in a league format than in a knockout competition. The furthest he’s ever got in the Champions League is the quarter finals, though he may find his task a bit harder now that there is a league phase at the start of the competition. 

Napoli do have the players to hurt City, McTominay and De Bruyne know the city really well and will be the main threats for the Italian side as they look to get their Champions League campaign off to a strong start.


🏁 Ref Watch

Felix Zwayer

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

24.24

5.24

0.24

0.51

Per game stats from Zwayer's 37 career Champions League games.


📊 Man City v Napoli Stats

  • Erling Haaland has scored eight goals across his last three games for club and country.

  • Manchester City failed to finish in the top eight of the league phase last season.

  • Manchester City ran out 3-0 winners over Manchester United last time out.

  • Napoli have won all three of their Serie A games this season by an aggregate scoreline of 6-1.

  • Napoli are the reigning Serie A champions.

  • Antonio Conte has never got past the quarter final stage of the Champions League as a manager.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Champions League Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've also got plenty of other content for Thursday's Champions League fixtures, including Quick Previews for Club Brugge v Monaco, Copenhagen v Leverkusen, and Frankfurt v Galatasaray, as well as a Bet Builder for Newcastle v Barcelona.

On top of that, we also have Champions League Accumulator Tips, a Player Prop Acca, and Both Teams to Score Tips.

You can take a look at some of the best New Bookmaker Offers here if you're after some free bets. We recommend both the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer, and the SBK Sign Up Offer.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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