Barcelona v Newcastle is a match that promises goals. The context, for one thing, points to an exciting, high-scoring game. Last season’s 14 Champions League second legs from the round of 16 onwards produced over 2.5 goals on 11 occasions.

On top of this, there’s the remarkable statistic that every single Barcelona home game across all competitions this season, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Osasuna, has produced at least three goals. In each of their last seven outings at Camp Nou, Barca have scored at least three themselves, including in the weekend’s 5-2 win over Sevilla.

Newcastle have not been shy of goals themselves. Prior to Saturday’s 1-0 win over Chelsea, the Magpies had been involved in six successive away days that had three or more goals. Meanwhile, 8/11 Newcastle UCL games this term have covered this bet.

The head-to-head also points to an exciting game. The two games between the clubs this season have seen 5.48 xG from a total of 54 shots.

This selection has landed in both of the head-to-head meetings between the sides this season, with Barcelona committing nine fouls at St James’ Park last week and 12 when the sides clashed in the league phase.

Barcelona aren’t known for high foul numbers, but still sit at an average of 10.1 fouls committed per game in the Champions League - which is a slight increase on their numbers in LaLiga this term. Hansi Flick’s side play with plenty of risk, which can sometimes leads to them needing to make challenges to stop the direct threat to their goal.

Newcastle have drawn 9+ fouls from their opponents in eight of their 10 Champions League matches this season. Eddie Howe’s side have also drawn 9+ fouls in 24 of their 30 matches in the Premier League this season (80%), so this is also a pretty strong part of Newcastle’s game, which can help Barcelona cover the fouls line here.

Fresh from branding Wayne Rooney and Alan Shearer “stupid” over his role as a substitute due to illness last week, Anthony Gordon is a man with a point to prove. He did so at Chelsea as he scored the only goal of the game – his second goal in as many starts.

While the 25-year-old is threatening to put an end to his disappointing Premier League season, he’s been one of Newcastle’s most eye-catching players in the Champions League this term, with 1.83 shots on target per 90, the highest among Eddie Howe’s players.

Of course, this has been inflated by the six shots he mustered against Qarabag in the last round, scoring four times, but this has been typical of his recent form. He has had a shot on target in seven of his last eight starts for the Toon. Away from him, he’s not shown any signs of allowing that figure to dip, with at least one shot on target in Newcastle’s last six.

Barcelona won’t faze him either. He’s consistently put up good shooting numbers against the bigger clubs: in recent away games, he managed three shots on target against Chelsea, two against Manchester City and two against Liverpool. He even managed a shot on target coming off the bench away to PSG in the group stage, so there’s little doubt he’s a man in form.

Pedri has faced up against Newcastle twice this season, and has drawn seven fouls across those two meetings. He was fouled four times in the 1-1 draw between the sides last week, and should continue to be an influential player for the home side here.

One of the main reasons why Pedri invites challenges is how much control he is able to have over games. Everyone was raving about him after his display at St James’ Park earlier in the season, with that performance being the usual standard that Pedri sets for Barcelona.

Pedri has drawn 16 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this season, working out to an average of 3.06 fouls won per 90. This average sits at 1.91 fouls won per 90 in LaLiga too, so Pedri has been pretty consistent when it comes to drawing fouls across various competitions.

I always like backing a player for fouls when I know that they will be on the ball constantly. Pedri is averaging just shy of 93 touches per game in the Champions League - so there should be plenty of opportunities for him to be dragged down here.

Hansi Flick opted for a bit of rotation at the weekend, with this big midweek clash coming up. However, Barcelona still had no issues against Sevilla, as they cruised to a 5-2 victory. Joao Cancelo was still given the nod to start at full back, with Barcelona currently limited on options in that position as Jules Kounde and Alejandro Balde remain in the treatment room. The full back played a massive role in the final third, as he won both of Barcelona’s penalties, before also finding the back of the net himself. 

That was his first goal for Barcelona this season after re-joining in January, which came from open play in the 60th minute. The Portuguese looks to break forward at every available opportunity, and he is averaging 0.92 shots per 90 this season. He landed this selection against Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey, while Cancelo also had one shot from inside the box against Newcastle last time out.

With the aggregate score at 1-1, there is still plenty to play for, and Barcelona should be front-footed in their approach here. Eddie Howe is likely to opt for similar tactics in the second leg, given how his side almost came away with the victory at St James’ Park. They were able to find success on the break - despite recording just 46% possession, Newcastle managed 16 shots worth 1.3 xG. 

That possession figure is likely to be a bit lower on Wednesday night, which means the Newcastle midfielders should have a bigger defensive responsibility. Joelinton recorded three fouls in the first leg, and was fortunate to escape a booking. Sandro Tonali and Jacob Ramsey combined for a further five infringements in midfield, while the Italian was given a yellow card. Joelinton was less lucky when the sides met in the league phase, as he was carded for his first foul after just 28 minutes. 

Malick Thiaw was another player who was amongst the duels, as the German international accounted for two of Newcastle’s 14 fouls in the first leg. He was aggressive in his challenges when Barcelona got into promising situations, but that approach also led to Thiaw conceding the all-important penalty in stoppage time. He followed that up with three fouls against Chelsea at the weekend, taking his average to 0.81 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. 

That figure is nothing to write home about, but Thiaw has seen an uptick in fouls in more competitive fixtures, especially when playing in the Champions League. He even hit this mark against Barcelona in the league phase, despite only featuring for the final 30 minutes off the bench. Thiaw came on for the injured Fabian Schar, but still recorded exactly two infringements. Once again, he should be aggressive in his approach here, hoping to atone for his mistake in the first leg.